Published: November 6, 2025
TL;DR: Novo Nordisk’s U.S.‑listed shares (NYSE: NVO) swung after the White House announced a pricing-and-access deal with Novo and Eli Lilly that expands Medicare coverage for anti‑obesity drugs and cuts out‑of‑pocket costs. As of 17:51 UTC (12:51 p.m. ET), NVO traded around $47.30, down ~2.4% on the day (intraday range: $46.91–$49.49; volume ~29.3M). The company confirmed a Medicare Part D pilot beginning in 2026, lower U.S. prices in Medicare/Medicaid and cash channels, and a three‑year tariff exemption—and flagged a low single‑digit drag to 2026 global sales growth. 1
What’s moving NVO today
White House deal cuts GLP‑1 prices and broadens coverage. President Donald Trump unveiled an agreement with Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly to expand access to GLP‑1 therapies (Wegovy, Ozempic, Zepbound) through Medicare and Medicaid and to offer lower direct‑to‑consumer prices via the government’s TrumpRx platform. Officials said starter doses of oral GLP‑1s, if approved, would be $149/month, while injectable GLP‑1s for covered indications would be $245/month, with Medicare copays capped at $50 and cash‑payer prices trending down to $245 over two years. 2
Novo confirms terms and timing. Novo Nordisk said the agreement includes Medicare Part D coverage for anti‑obesity medicines via a pilot starting in 2026, lower prices across Medicare Part D, Medicaid and the cash channel, and a three‑year tariff exemption. The company currently expects an estimated negative low single‑digit impact on 2026 global sales growth from the pricing changes. Details will be finalized with the U.S. administration. 1
NVO price action at a glance (intraday)
- Price: $47.30; change: −$1.16 (≈−2.39%) vs. prior close ~$48.46
- Range: day low $46.91 / high $49.49
- Volume: ~29,314,732 shares
For context, rival LLY traded near $933.92, up ~0.88% intraday.
Why this matters for Novo Nordisk
Access vs. margins. Expanded Medicare coverage and lower list prices can accelerate patient starts and stabilize demand, particularly if an oral GLP‑1 reaches the market, but they also compress unit economics. The administration’s outline suggests a $149/month starter price for pills (pending approvals) and $245/month for injectables within government programs, implying wider access but thinner pricing power than in recent years. 2
Novo’s own guidance signals modest near‑term headwinds. In its announcement, Novo framed the 2026 impact as a low single‑digit sales headwind, which investors are weighing against the potential for materially higher volumes under Medicare coverage. 1
The backdrop: earnings, competition and M&A
Q3 and outlook reset (yesterday). Reuters reported Novo trimmed full‑year sales and profit growth ranges, with management acknowledging pressure from Eli Lilly and compounded copycat semaglutide. The company also said an IRA‑related Medicare price for semaglutide (effective 2027) would have had a low‑single‑digit 2025 sales impact if applied this year, tempering worst‑case fears. 3
Bidding war for Metsera continues. Novo and Pfizer are locked in a high‑stakes contest for obesity‑drug developer Metsera, with Novo’s ~$10B bid currently deemed superior by Metsera while Pfizer challenges the process in court. The auction underscores how critical next‑gen obesity assets are to Novo’s long‑term GLP‑1 strategy. 4
Pipeline and medical‑meeting news you should know
At ObesityWeek 2025 (yesterday), Novo presented four new analyses of oral semaglutide 25 mg (“Wegovy in a pill,” not yet FDA‑approved), including improvements in glycemic measures and cardiovascular risk factors in OASIS‑4, and an indirect comparison suggesting outcomes broadly comparable to injectable semaglutide in separate trials. Novo said the FDA review of the pill is expected to conclude by the end of 2025. 5
What Wall Street is saying today
- Goldman Sachs: reiterated Buy with a DKK 391 price target (Copenhagen‑listed shares).
- Deutsche Bank: reiterated Buy, DKK 600 target.
These notes arrived as investors digested the White House agreement and Novo’s updated outlook. (Targets are for Novo‑B in Copenhagen, not ADRs.) 6
Key dates and catalysts to watch
- Medicare Part D pilot:begins 2026; pricing changes roll into Medicare/Medicaid and cash channels on the timeline outlined by U.S. officials and Novo. 2
- Oral semaglutide (Wegovy pill) FDA decision:expected late 2025, per company statements at ObesityWeek. 5
- Extraordinary General Meeting (board refresh):Nov 14, 2025 (fully electronic). 7
Bottom line for investors
- Today’s driver: The U.S. pricing-and-access deal is the dominant story and could expand the total addressable market via Medicare and lower cash prices—but with pricing normalization that tightens gross margins. Near‑term, that mix is pressuring the stock as investors recalibrate revenue vs. margin trade‑offs. 2
- Competitive lens: With Lilly’s GLP‑1 franchise surging, execution on oral semaglutide and pipeline M&A (e.g., Metsera) will be crucial for Novo to defend and re‑accelerate growth. 4
Sources
Reuters live coverage and analysis of the pricing deal; Novo’s Q3/outlook update; AP News coverage of the White House announcement; Novo Nordisk’s company announcement; PR Newswire medical‑meeting update; MarketScreener analyst notes; real‑time price data. 2
Disclosure: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
