LONDON, March 11, 2026, 09:24 GMT
- Brent crude traded at $88.39 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate was at $84.43 by 0727 GMT. Both benchmarks were recovering after tumbling 11% on Tuesday.
- Supply jitters are back on the radar: The IEA and G7 are looking at tapping emergency reserves as the Strait of Hormuz faces renewed disruption.
- Shell, BP, and Exxon Mobil shares haven’t matched crude’s rally, pointing to equity investors betting the shock won’t last.
Oil bounced higher Wednesday, Brent topping $88 a barrel again and U.S. crude climbing past $84, after traders shrugged off talk that a record emergency stock release could offset fallout tied to the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran. Brent gained 59 cents to hit $88.39 as of 0727 GMT. West Texas Intermediate advanced 98 cents, reaching $84.43.
This isn’t just about oil. Roughly 20% of the world’s supply moves through the Strait of Hormuz, the tight passage flanked by Iran and Oman. If disruptions drag on, Brent probably holds above $95 a barrel for the next couple of months, the U.S. Energy Information Administration says, before retreating later this year.
The 11% slide on Tuesday rattled investors further. That sharp drop came right after Monday’s surge to levels not seen since 2022, spurred by President Donald Trump’s remarks that the war might wrap up soon. G7 energy ministers, for their part, opted against a joint release of reserves for now, requesting instead that the International Energy Agency draft contingency plans.
The market’s focus has shifted to a possible drawdown—emergency government oil reserves could be tapped. According to the IEA, member nations have over 1.2 billion barrels in public emergency stocks and another 600 million barrels held by industry, under government instructions. But per Goldman Sachs, even a release on the scale discussed would cover just 12 days of the Gulf export shortfall they estimate.
That’s a big reason for the doubts swirling around the plan. Suvro Sarkar, who leads the DBS energy sector team, put it bluntly: stock releases are “not the solution to the crisis.” Chidu Narayanan at Wells Fargo echoed the point, arguing that as long as the fighting lasts, these steps would do little more than make a marginal difference. Reuters
Supplies remain under pressure. According to shipping sources, the U.S. Navy is turning down almost daily calls for convoy protection through the Strait of Hormuz, citing excessive risk. ADNOC halted operations at the Ruwais refinery following a drone attack, and Saudi Aramco has issued a warning about “catastrophic consequences” should the disruption drag on. Reuters
The stock market isn’t quite following oil’s lead. Shell, BP, and Exxon Mobil shares have trailed crude’s rise. That’s a signal, according to Melius Research’s James West, that investors are still betting on “a swift end” to the disruption—even though Exxon CEO Darren Woods described operations in the region as “scaled back,” with inventory management now “very challenged.” Reuters
But there are gaps in the relief plan. The Wall Street Journal says the IEA is floating its largest-ever release—bigger than the 182 million barrels in 2022. Still, even one member has the power to stall the move, and JPMorgan flagged that these measures won’t go far if safe transit through Hormuz isn’t restored.
Signals for demand in the near term remain stubbornly firm. According to market sources, last week’s U.S. crude, gasoline, and distillate inventories all declined. The EIA, for its part, said higher prices could push U.S. oil output to 13.6 million barrels a day this year, climbing to 13.8 million by 2027.
Right now, traders have their eyes on three fronts: the IEA’s possible release of emergency barrels, the status of shipping through Hormuz, and new inflation numbers—each with the power to sway central bank moves if energy costs remain stubborn. That blend, not just where the price lands, keeps oil drifting in a directionless market.
