NEW YORK, February 25, 2026, 14:15 EST — Regular session
- Brent and WTI dropped, following U.S. data that revealed a significant jump in crude stockpiles.
- Risk premiums lingered in the market, driven by Middle East tensions and ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations.
- Traders are watching for OPEC+’s call on April production, expected at the March 1 meeting.
Oil prices turned lower on Wednesday, pushed down after U.S. government numbers showed crude inventories jumped far more than analysts had forecast, outweighing any upside from fresh U.S.-Iran friction. Brent slipped 12 cents to $70.65 a barrel as of 11:16 a.m. ET, a 0.2% drop. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell 26 cents, or 0.4%, trading at $65.37. “The oil market remains more influenced by other factors at present, such as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East,” UBS commodity analyst Giovanni Staunovo said. Reuters
Timing is key here. Benchmarks had been chased up to seven-month highs as traders fretted over potential supply disruptions from the Gulf, with Iran drawing particular attention. But then, a surprise surge in inventories yanked the conversation right back to fundamentals—how much crude is sitting in storage, and are refiners processing enough to keep supply lines active?
The news comes right before a stretch loaded with event risk: diplomacy efforts with Iran are returning to focus, and a major producers’ group is set to meet this weekend to weigh a possible supply increase. Headlines from either could jolt prices much more quickly than macro data ever does here.
U.S. commercial crude stocks climbed by 16.0 million barrels to 435.8 million barrels for the week ending Feb. 20, according to the Energy Information Administration. Refineries were operating at 88.6% of capacity. Crude imports averaged 6.7 million barrels per day, a weekly increase of 136,000 bpd. Gasoline inventories dropped 1.0 million barrels; distillate supplies ticked up by 0.3 million barrels, the agency added.
Dive into the numbers, and the crude inventory story gets murkier. The EIA’s adjustment line, used to square up discrepancies between reported supply and demand, surged to a record 2.7 million barrels per day in the latest release. It’s a stark illustration: these weekly figures aren’t immune to statistical static.
The geopolitical angle is unsettled: are negotiations easing tensions, or just stalling? U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are set for a third round of meetings with Iranian officials Thursday in Geneva. Iran’s foreign minister claims a deal is close, provided diplomacy takes the lead.
OPEC+, the bloc of oil producers that includes Russia, may bump up production by 137,000 barrels per day starting in April, according to three sources with knowledge of the discussions who spoke to Reuters. The group, which paused hikes during the first quarter, is set to revisit the topic when eight members gather March 1. Reuters
Saudi Arabia, the largest producer in the group, has been quietly ramping up both output and exports, according to two sources with knowledge of the matter. The move is part of a backup strategy, these people said, meant to cushion any shock if a U.S. attack on Iran threatens flows from the region. Every day, more than 20 million barrels of crude, condensate, and refined products navigate the Strait of Hormuz—a critical passage likely to become a hotspot in the event of hostilities. Reuters
Sentiment reversed sharply on Tuesday. Brent ended 1% lower at $70.77, while WTI dropped 1% to $65.63 after Iran indicated it was ready to move toward a nuclear agreement with Washington. On top of that, traders kept an eye on U.S. tariff questions and fresh industry data. According to market sources, the American Petroleum Institute reported a jump of 11.43 million barrels in crude inventories for the week, ahead of the EIA’s official numbers. Reuters
The path forward looks messy. Should the EIA adjustment reverse and inventories start to draw down, that bearish narrative could disappear in a hurry. A diplomatic misstep, or a strike disrupting shipping lanes, would snap the Middle East risk premium right back onto the tape.
Traders have their eyes on Thursday’s U.S.-Iran talks in Geneva, with Saturday’s OPEC+ meeting also on the radar for hints about April supply. The next round of U.S. inventory data is coming up—key focus: does the crude build stand alone, or are we seeing the opening move in a new trend?
