LONDON, March 17, 2026, 14:15 GMT
UBS reported Tuesday that commodity trading advisers—those trend-following, model-based funds—have slashed global equity holdings by 75% since the Middle East conflict erupted. The Swiss bank, meanwhile, stuck to its upbeat view on Sage’s AI pricing strength. In a separate update, UBS is said to be revamping a European high-yield trading desk focused on lower-rated corporate debt.
This surge is significant—asset prices, software valuations, and bank trading desks are all getting squeezed by the same set of pressures. Oil hasn’t dropped below $100 a barrel. Investors are holding their breath for cues from the big central banks, while software shares keep taking hits as buyers weigh whether legacy players can actually leverage AI for new revenue, or if it just erodes their advantage.
UBS strategist Nicolas Le Roux said in a note Tuesday that CTAs have slashed about 75% of their global equity holdings since the Middle East conflict began, putting them nearly flat on stocks now. Selling could taper off here, he noted, but warned rates and credit markets aren’t out of the woods—“more pain appears to be in order.” Funds have already covered $150 billion to $175 billion of U.S. dollar shorts and could pile on another $70 billion to $80 billion in the next two weeks. Investing.com
UBS has been urging clients to increase hedges, seek out more diversified positions, and pare back on cyclical names as the conflict stretches on. Over in currencies, strategist Bhanu Baweja pointed out oil might climb to $120 if the Strait of Hormuz stays blocked into March, and $150 is possible if the closure drags until April.
UBS has stuck with its “buy” call on Sage, keeping the price target at 1,025 pence after a meeting with CTO Aaron Harris, Proactive reported. The broker pointed out that Sage Intacct’s new month-end close agent is slashing closing times by 90%, which translates to customers saving dozens of hours each month. That, UBS argued, gives Sage more leverage to boost prices on its AI features. Shares were changing hands at 842.4 pence mid-afternoon; interim results land May 21. Proactiveinvestors UK
Sage hasn’t budged from its stance. In January, Chief Executive Steve Hare pointed to “five to ten hours a week of savings” as customers let AI handle repetitive work. He also flagged that all of Sage’s cloud-native revenue streams were now AI-enabled and stressed that AI “favours incumbents.” Intuit still looms large in North America, Hare said, but roughly a quarter of new Sage Intacct deals continue to pull in customers switching from Intuit. Sage
Timing is key here. Software names have struggled this year, with investors worried that rapid AI innovations might disrupt established subscription models. SAP slumped up to 17% in January after its 2026 cloud outlook failed to impress, while Sage tumbled over 3% that day as the selloff rippled through European software stocks.
UBS is rehiring Robert Laux—previously Bank of America’s European high-yield trading chief—just months after bringing in Bharat Gupta from Deutsche Bank for that role last April, eFinancialCareers reported. Gupta has now left, according to the outlet, and the bank is working to rebuild the high-yield desk after struggles with profitability. UBS declined to comment, eFinancialCareers added.
UBS is pressing ahead with growth initiatives as it weaves Credit Suisse into its operations. Last month, the bank reported a 56% jump in fourth-quarter net profit to $1.2 billion. Heavy trading volumes in Global Wealth Management and the investment bank did a lot of the lifting, and UBS pointed to continued rollouts of AI tools and a push for more cost cuts as factors in the quarter.
There’s still a clear downside. Goldman Sachs warns that if the Middle East conflict triggers major oil-supply disruptions, the S&P 500 could slip to around 5,400 this year. Over in Germany, the ZEW institute flagged the sharpest drop in investor sentiment since February 2022, citing the drag from rising energy costs. For Sage and similar firms, missing a step on AI or facing resistance to price hikes would sting, especially in a market low on patience.
