New York, January 12, 2026, 08:07 (EST) — Premarket
By 10:45 a.m. GMT Monday, Brent crude futures dipped 31 cents, or 0.5%, landing at $63.03 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate slipped 36 cents, or 0.6%, to $58.76. Iran’s foreign minister declared the situation “under total control” following weekend unrest, easing some supply worries. Yet, a rights group reported over 500 deaths. UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo cited weaker European equities and a “lack of additional supply disruptions,” while MST Marquee’s Saul Kavonic noted the market remains skeptical, still demanding, “Show me the disruption to supply.” 1
The oil market is showing a classic divide: crude prices respond to headlines and geopolitical tension, while energy stocks focus on how Washington’s next steps will affect barrels, contracts, and capital spending. The premium spikes quickly, then fades. Traders aren’t hanging around for lengthy statements.
Exxon Mobil gained 1.4% in premarket action, climbing to $124.61 from a prior close near $122.90, market data showed.
The stock has been jittery over Venezuela news. Trump warned he could block Exxon from investing, following CEO Darren Woods’ label of the country as “uninvestable.” Shares fell roughly 1% in early premarket trading, Reuters reported. 2
At a White House meeting on Friday, Woods told Trump that Venezuela remains “uninvestable” right now, adding Exxon would require security guarantees before deploying a technical team. He also emphasized the need for lasting protections and a revamp of Venezuela’s hydrocarbons law. Nearby, Chevron vice chairman Mark Nelson told Trump adviser Stephen Miller that Chevron could double liftings at its PDVSA joint ventures immediately and boost production by roughly 50% within 18 to 24 months. 3
Traders outpaced the majors in the rush for Venezuelan barrels. Vitol and Trafigura landed preliminary special licenses allowing them to negotiate and export Venezuelan crude, while Washington and Caracas neared a $2 billion deal to move up to 50 million barrels previously stuck in a blockade, Reuters reported. Trafigura plans to load its first shipment this week. On Sunday, Trump warned he might block Exxon from investing, saying, “I didn’t like Exxon’s response.” 4
Supply figures continue to weigh on bulls. OPEC output dropped to 28.40 million barrels per day in December, down 100,000 bpd from November, according to a Reuters survey. Iran’s production fell by 100,000 bpd, while Venezuela’s declined 70,000 bpd. Energy Aspects predicts Venezuela’s crude and condensate output will slip further to 950,000 bpd this month, down from 1.1 million bpd in December, the report noted. 5
Goldman Sachs is betting on a weaker oil market next year. It stuck with its 2026 average price targets of $56 for Brent and $52 for WTI, and said Brent/WTI could hit a low of $54/$50 in Q4 as OECD inventories build up. The bank points to a projected 2.3 million bpd surplus in 2026. To play this, Goldman suggests shorting a Brent time-spread—the difference between near-term and longer-dated futures—as a way to capitalize on the expected oversupply. 6
Energy stocks showed a split picture. Chevron climbed 1.8% to $162.11 in premarket action, but ConocoPhillips slipped 1.2% to $97.51, per market data.
Macro signals are mixed. The dollar dipped, and gold surged to record levels amid worries over the Fed’s independence. S&P 500 futures fell over 0.5% in early trading, Reuters noted. Oil, however, showed little reaction to the news. 7
The oil downside won’t be a simple slide. A deeper Iran crisis might disrupt flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Venezuela could boost exports faster than official data shows, weighing on prices and pushing producers to protect cash margins. And OPEC+ can always shift gears if the curve begins to point toward a genuine surplus.
Tuesday brings U.S. inflation data, with the Bureau of Labor Statistics releasing December’s CPI at 8:30 a.m. ET on January 13. The EIA will roll out its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook the same day, followed by the Weekly Petroleum Status Report on January 14. 8
