London, January 26, 2026, 11:37 (GMT) — Regular session
Oil prices nudged up Monday, staying close to two-week highs as winter storm Fern forced shutdowns across parts of U.S. oil and gas regions. The standoff between Washington and Tehran also kept traders cautious, pushing up risk premiums. Brent, the global benchmark, gained 7 cents, or 0.1%, to $65.95 a barrel by 1107 GMT; U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) added 3 cents, or 0.1%, to $61.10. Both contracts wrapped up last week with a 2.7% rise. Phillip Nova analyst Priyanka Sachdeva described the move as a “mild upswing” amid tighter physical flows. JPMorgan estimated weather-related output losses at roughly 250,000 barrels per day (bpd). Meanwhile, President Donald Trump said the U.S. has an “armada” en route to Iran, while an Iranian official warned any attack would trigger “all-out war.” Despite this, the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) reported it had resumed full loading capacity, and Kazakhstan’s Tengiz field started ramping back up. 1
The immediate squeeze collides with a larger issue looming in 2026: supply. This month, the U.S. Energy Information Administration projected global production will surpass demand that year, with Brent crude averaging $56 a barrel and WTI at $52. 2
The market’s focus is on the prompt barrel, not the December contract. Time spreads—the difference between near-term and later futures—typically widen when refiners are rushing to secure supply, then narrow as conditions ease.
The Permian Basin looks to have dodged the worst of the ice, National Weather Service meteorologist Kevin Lamberson in Midland said. He described the sleet and snow as “a relief” compared to freezing rain. 3
Tengizchevroil in Kazakhstan announced it has begun a slow restart at Tengiz following a fire that halted production. The company is “working to gradually increase production volumes as conditions allow.” According to a government statement, Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov pressed Exxon Mobil vice president Peter Larden to accelerate repair efforts. Tengiz pumped around 606,000 bpd in 2024, with Chevron owning 50% and Exxon holding 25%. 4
The upcoming milestone for U.S. stockpiles is the inventory report. According to EIA’s schedule, the next Weekly Petroleum Status Report will be released on Jan. 28. 5
OPEC+ remains the key driver of policy shifts. Eight producers that had imposed extra voluntary cuts will reconvene on Feb. 1 and have decided to hold off on planned output hikes for February and March. 6
That weather-and-geopolitics push can evaporate quickly. Should shut-ins ease, Kazakhstan’s output stay on track, and Iran headlines quiet down, the market might swing back to a surplus outlook and weaker prices.
Traders are set to monitor U.S. storm-related production updates throughout the week before shifting focus to the January 28 U.S. stockpile data and the OPEC+ meeting on February 1 for fresh momentum.
