Houston, March 13, 2026, 13:56 CDT.
Oil prices climbed again Friday. Brent crude futures—the global benchmark for forward contracts—added $1.59, reaching $102.05 a barrel as of 11:35 a.m. CDT in Houston. U.S. West Texas Intermediate rose $1.15 to $96.88, with the Strait of Hormuz still closed. “Traders were being hammered by the news,” said Phil Flynn at Price Futures Group. LSEG’s Emril Jamil pointed out that Brent was drawing stronger support than WTI, as Europe faces higher exposure compared to the U.S. Reuters
Hormuz isn’t some minor player. The International Energy Agency is calling the closure the largest oil supply shock on record—global flows are poised to drop by roughly 8 million barrels per day in March. Crude volatility has shot up, approaching the wild swings that marked the early days of the pandemic.
Banks have started to adjust their forecasts. On Friday, Reuters said Goldman Sachs and Bank of America revised their 2026 oil projections, with the conflict nearing two weeks. Most analysts still expect prices to stabilize before year-end. Even so, Brent was up over 10% for the week, WTI more than 7%.
Goldman took a more aggressive stance, projecting Brent to trade above $100 a barrel in March and settle at $85 in April. If the Strait of Hormuz faces a two-month disruption, the bank says its fourth-quarter Brent forecast jumps to $93 from $71. Baseline Q4 targets now stand at $71 for Brent, $67 for WTI.
Physical supplies are pinched, despite what the screens show. JPMorgan flagged nearly 12 million barrels per day in supply cuts expected by the end of next week, adding that “commercial tanker traffic remains extremely limited.” New Gulf shipments have mostly stopped, and the bank pointed to mounting shortages in diesel, jet fuel, LPG, and naphtha. Reuters
Saudi Arabia has tightened supply even further. Reuters, citing two sources, reports the kingdom has slashed output by roughly 2 million barrels a day to about 8 million bpd, bringing production far below the 10.882 million bpd pumped in February. The pullback, focused on the Safaniya and Zuluf offshore fields, drew no comment from Saudi Aramco.
Downstream buyers aren’t standing still. Sinopec — China’s refining giant — is set to slash March crude runs by over 10%, translating to a cut of 600,000 to 700,000 barrels per day. The move comes after Beijing clamped down on diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel exports in a bid to shore up domestic supply.
Officials are looking to curb the surge in prices, but only to a certain extent. IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol pointed to the agency’s upcoming 400 million-barrel stock release, saying it’s already made a “strong impact” on the market. Still, he warned this is “an extremely critical period” following the Hormuz closure. Reuters
Even so, there’s no certainty the rally sticks. According to the IEA, some Gulf exporters have the option to shift routes come April, and looking at 2026, global oil supply might still outpace demand. Should shipping lanes reopen and extra emergency barrels hit the market, gains from this week could quickly evaporate.
