NEW YORK, Feb 12, 2026, 12:23 EST — Regular session
Oil slid sharply Thursday, dropping more than $1 a barrel as the International Energy Agency pared its demand growth outlook for 2026 and signs emerged that the threat of a U.S. strike on Iran might be fading. Brent crude shed $1.26, or 1.8%, to trade at $68.14 a barrel as of 10:16 a.m. CDT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate slipped $1.24, or 1.9%, to $63.39. “It just ran out of steam,” said Phil Flynn, senior analyst at Price Futures Group. 1
The IEA’s demand call landed hard, with crude reacting to the headlines and the clock—it’s about immediate barrels, not forecasts for later. A softer demand outlook goes right to the storage math and determines just how much space refiners have before they hit the brakes on purchases.
The Paris-based agency trimmed its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 850,000 barrels per day (bpd), down 80,000 bpd from last month. For this year, it continues to project a supply surplus of roughly 3.73 million bpd. “Economic uncertainties and higher oil prices” are dragging on consumption, it said. Brent remains up about 14% for the year. 2
Fresh U.S. inventory numbers came in heavy. Commercial crude stocks jumped 8.5 million barrels to 428.8 million for the week ending Feb. 6, according to the Energy Information Administration. Refineries operated at 89.4% of capacity. Gasoline inventories increased by 1.2 million barrels, while distillate supplies dropped 2.7 million barrels.
On Wednesday, oil prices moved higher: Brent finished 60 cents stronger at $69.40, while WTI picked up 67 cents to close at $64.63. “The market continues to be supported by the tension between the U.S. and Iran,” said Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates. 3
After meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, President Donald Trump said there’s still no “definitive” deal on Iran, though talks with Tehran remain on the table. “There was nothing definitive reached other than I insisted that negotiations with Iran continue,” Trump posted on social media. 4
OPEC’s monthly report out Wednesday put second-quarter demand for OPEC+ crude — that’s OPEC and partners like Russia — at 42.20 million bpd, down 400,000 barrels a day from the first quarter. The group pointed to a softer U.S. dollar as a tailwind, calling dollar-denominated commodities “cheaper for consumers”. 5
The U.S. EIA put out a short-term forecast Wednesday that skewed bearish: they’re calling for Brent to average just $58 a barrel in 2026—well below the projected $69 for 2025. The agency cites supply outpacing demand for petroleum and other liquids. “Crude oil prices tend to decrease as global petroleum stocks increase,” it noted. 6
Even so, this market tends to rebound fast. If Iran negotiations fall apart or a major producer suddenly suffers an outage, near-term supply could get squeezed and crude may see money rushing back in — and it wouldn’t take long.
With the demand outlook cut this week, traders turn their focus to the upcoming U.S. inventory data and any fresh updates on producer supply moves. The next weekly petroleum report from the EIA is slated for Feb. 19. 7
