New York, Feb 14, 2026, 12:09 (EST) — The market has closed.
Oil stocks are bracing for another supply shakeup next week, as OPEC+ — that’s the group of OPEC nations and Russia — is said to favor resuming output hikes in April, sources told Reuters. Eight producers from the alliance are set to gather March 1, following a three-month freeze on planned increases.
With U.S. stock and bond markets shuttered Monday for Presidents Day, traders have a compressed window to get set. Next week brings energy earnings from Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ) on Feb. 19 and Oil States (OIS) on Feb. 20, per the Kiplinger earnings calendar.
With U.S. inflation easing, Treasury yields slipped, and speculation on potential rate cuts later this year picked up. January’s Consumer Price Index climbed 2.4% from a year ago—slightly below what economists had forecast in a Reuters poll.
Exxon Mobil (XOM) dropped 1.0% to close at $148.45 on Friday. Chevron (CVX) moved up 0.7% to $183.74 and ConocoPhillips (COP) edged 0.6% higher, finishing at $111.43. Occidental Petroleum (OXY) tacked on 1.2% to end at $46.07.
Refiners pulled ahead, with Marathon Petroleum (MPC) tacking on 2.6% to close at $203.26. Valero Energy (VLO) gained 1.6%, ending at $200.17. It was a rougher session for oilfield services: SLB (SLB) slipped 0.5% to $50.39, while Halliburton (HAL) fell 1.0% to $33.96.
Crude prices wrapped up the week with a muted performance. Brent edged up 0.3% to close at $67.75 a barrel Friday, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) hovered near flat, ending at $62.89. Both benchmarks still finished lower for the week, pressured by Thursday’s sharp decline. “There’s still a $5–$7 per barrel geopolitical premium built in,” said Dennis Kissler, senior vice president of trading at BOK Financial, who also flagged the risk of increased OPEC output weighing on prices in the near term. Reuters
There’s more at play than just OPEC+ when it comes to supply concerns. On Friday, Washington handed out two general licenses that loosen up sanctions on Venezuela’s energy sector. The move gives Chevron, BP, Eni, Shell and Repsol the go-ahead to operate in the country, provided royalty and tax payments funnel into a U.S.-controlled deposit fund—a detail laid out by Reuters. Chevron called the licenses “important steps” for tapping into Venezuela’s resources. Reuters
On the demand front, things look tougher. The International Energy Agency trimmed its 2026 demand growth projection on Thursday to just 850,000 barrels per day. According to the IEA, supply is shaping up to outpace demand by 3.73 million barrels per day, despite January output taking a hit from outages at multiple producers. “Economic uncertainties and higher oil prices” are putting a lid on consumption, the agency said. Reuters
Russell Hardy, Vitol’s chief executive, sees things differently. He told an industry crowd in London that the market’s getting tighter, blaming sanctions on Russia and Iran for crimping flows and forcing buyers to look elsewhere. “Cracks are beginning to appear,” Hardy said. Reuters
Company news made the rounds too. A federal judge has denied California Attorney General Rob Bonta’s attempt to toss Exxon’s defamation suit tied to his comments about the company’s advanced plastics recycling efforts, according to Reuters. But similar claims against a number of environmental groups didn’t stick—those were thrown out due to lack of jurisdiction.
Oil stocks face a real risk if supply ramps up before demand can catch up. An open door to more OPEC+ output, along with Venezuelan supply, would likely hit crude prices and squeeze producer cash flows. On the other hand, disruptions from geopolitics or unexpected outages could prop up prices, leaving refiners and oilfield services names to trade off their own storylines.
March 1 is circled—eight OPEC+ members will sit down that day to decide if quota hikes return in April.
