Ondas Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: ONDS) is back in the spotlight on December 16, 2025, as the stock attempts to stabilize after a sharp, high-volume pullback and a wave of fresh Wall Street commentary. As of 15:18 UTC on Tuesday, ONDS traded at $7.865, after opening at $7.60 and ranging between $7.50 and $8.15 intraday.
The headline that’s driving much of today’s discussion: Stifel initiated coverage on Ondas with a Buy rating and a $13 price target, framing the company as a potential emerging leader in unmanned systems. [1]
But the bull case is colliding with near-term friction—namely unusually heavy trading volume, a recent board resignation disclosed via SEC filing, and a proposed conversion/exchange transaction involving Ondas Autonomous Systems (OAS) securities that could add shares and create accounting noise in Q4. [2]
Below is a full, up-to-date breakdown of today’s news, current forecasts, and the key analyses shaping ONDS as of December 16, 2025.
ONDS stock price today: rebound attempt after a high-volume drop
The context for today’s move starts with Monday’s tape.
On December 15, 2025, Ondas shares closed at $7.69, down sharply on the day after trading as high as $8.74 and as low as $7.56. Reported volume for the session reached 100.39 million shares, far above typical levels for most small- and mid-cap names—an important clue that the shareholder base is actively rotating and repositioning. [3]
MarketBeat also flagged the session as an “unusual volume” day, noting elevated trading activity as the stock pulled back. [4]
As of Tuesday (Dec. 16) Ondas has bounced modestly, trading around $7.865 midday UTC, but it’s still well below recent highs—suggesting the market is currently treating ONDS as a high-volatility story stock where catalysts and capital-structure headlines matter as much as quarterly results.
Today’s biggest new headline: Stifel initiates ONDS coverage with a Buy and $13 target
The most market-moving analyst update hitting screens around Dec. 16 is Stifel’s initiation:
- Rating: Buy
- Price target:$13
- Core thesis (as reported): Ondas is “positioned to emerge a leader in the unmanned systems space,” and investors “should not be distracted” by what look like rich near-term multiples given how early the company and broader drone market are in their adoption curve. [5]
In plain English: Stifel is telling investors to value ONDS more like an early-stage platform play tied to defense and security modernization—and less like a mature industrial with neat, predictable margins today.
That’s a meaningful framing shift for a stock that’s often traded on the latest contract headline or quarterly revenue spike.
Other current forecasts and analyst targets: Needham lifts target; Street remains mostly constructive
Stifel’s initiation lands on top of several other bullish-to-constructive notes issued in recent weeks.
Needham raises ONDS price target to $12
Needham raised its price target on Ondas to $12 (from $10) and reiterated a Buy, citing improved optimism after investor meetings with the CEO and continued confidence in the company’s execution strategy. [6]
Where consensus targets sit (depending on the tracker)
Because ONDS is still a smaller name, “consensus” can vary by data provider, but multiple services show a target band clustering in the $10–$13 range:
- MarketBeat shows a recent average price target around $10.43. [7]
- TipRanks displays a $11.50 12-month target estimate (as reflected on its ONDS profile data feeds). [8]
- TradingView’s aggregated target also centers around $11.50, with a published range that reaches $13 on the high end. [9]
Not all takes are bullish
MarketBeat’s roundup of analyst actions also reflects that at least one ratings service has been negative (e.g., a “sell” style signal), underscoring that sentiment is not universally rosy even if most traditional sell-side notes skew positive. [10]
The operating narrative behind ONDS: drones, counter-drones, and “system-of-systems” defense tech
Ondas has increasingly positioned itself as a defense/security autonomy platform, especially through Ondas Autonomous Systems (OAS) and its subsidiaries and acquired capabilities.
Over the past month, the company has issued a string of press releases that help explain why analysts are paying attention—and why the stock trades like a live wire.
1) Dec. 8: planned investment in Ukraine-linked drone technology
Ondas announced its intent to invest up to $11 million in Drone Fight Group (DFG), described as a Ukrainian developer of unmanned aerial systems—via Ondas’ strategic investment platform, Ondas Capital. The company positioned this as an effort to bring “combat-proven” drone technology and training/simulation tools into U.S. and allied channels, subject to final terms and compliance requirements. [11]
2) Dec. 3: border-protection tender with “thousands of drones” in view
Ondas said OAS was selected as prime contractor for a major government tender to develop and deploy an autonomous border-protection system, describing a multi-year, multi-phase program expected to culminate in the deployment of thousands of autonomous drones. The company also stated an initial purchase order is anticipated in January 2026. [12]
That “prime contractor” language matters because Ondas is explicitly trying to graduate from being a niche supplier into a more central integrator role.
3) Dec. 1: another $8.2M counter-UAS airport order (second in two weeks)
Ondas announced a second order worth approximately $8.2 million to deploy multiple Iron Drone Raider counter-UAS systems at another major European international airport, with its subsidiary Airobotics acting as prime contractor for integration and deployment. The company framed the deal as a repeat order from the same customer, following a previously announced order in mid-November. [13]
4) Dec. 2: networks-side catalyst (rail communications modernization)
Not all Ondas news is drones. Ondas also highlighted its Ondas Networks unit with the appointment of rail industry veteran Brent Laing to support adoption of IEEE 802.16t (“dot16”) in North American rail communications. The press release references industry movement toward dot16 as an upgrade path, which could become a multi-year modernization cycle if deployments scale. [14]
Platform build-out: PDW investment, Sentrycs acquisition, and Roboteam deal
If the bull case is “Ondas is assembling a full-stack autonomy and counter-drone platform,” then the M&A and strategic investments are the connective tissue.
Nov. 20: $35M strategic investment in Performance Drone Works (PDW)
Ondas announced a $35 million strategic investment in Performance Drone Works (PDW), describing PDW as a manufacturer of combat robotics deployed across U.S. military branches. The company cited PDW’s Huntsville, Alabama manufacturing facility and positioned the investment as a way to scale production and secure NDAA-compliant supply chains. [15]
Nov. 18: Sentrycs acquisition completes (cyber takeover for counter-UAS)
Ondas said it completed the acquisition of Sentrycs, describing it as a provider of Cyber-over-RF / protocol-manipulation counter-UAS technology—used to identify, track, and take control of unauthorized drones without jamming/spoofing, according to the company’s description. The company reported Sentrycs had deployments across 25+ countries and positioned the acquisition as enhancing a layered counter-UAS stack alongside Iron Drone Raider. [16]
Nov. 25: Ondas to acquire Roboteam (tactical ground robots)
Ondas announced a definitive agreement to acquire Roboteam, a developer of tactical unmanned ground vehicles (UGVs). Ondas stated it expected Roboteam to add $3–$4 million revenue in Q4 2025 and at least $30 million in 2026, while expanding Ondas’ footprint across air-and-ground autonomy. [17]
SEC filings: the board resignation and the OAS exchange that investors are pricing in
While contracts and product expansion fuel upside narratives, capital structure and governance updates can hit the stock fast—especially in smaller, momentum-sensitive names.
Director resignation (Dec. 12)
Ondas disclosed that Ron Stern resigned as a director effective immediately on December 12, 2025, and the filing stated the resignation was not due to any disagreement related to operations, policies, or practices. [18]
OAS exchange: potential share issuance + a Q4 non-cash charge (Dec. 12 8-K)
In a separate Dec. 12 Form 8-K, Ondas described an exchange framework involving holders of OAS notes/warrants/common stock:
- As of Dec. 12, Ondas said it had received election from 10 of 11 holders.
- If no additional elections arrive, Ondas estimated it would own ~99% of OAS fully diluted and would issue an estimated 6,887,150 ONDS common shares (based on the Dec. 11 closing bid price).
- If all holders participate, Ondas estimated issuance of 7,325,914 shares and ownership of 100% of OAS.
- Ondas also projected a one-time, non-cash charge in Q4, estimated at approximately $56.6 million (or $60.5 million if all holders participate).
- The company said it expected to enter definitive exchange agreements during the week of Dec. 15, 2025. [19]
For investors, the practical takeaway is: possible dilution + an accounting headline (non-cash charge) right as the stock is already volatile—exactly the kind of setup that can amplify price swings even if the strategic goal (simplifying ownership of OAS) is long-term positive.
Fundamental snapshot: Q3 2025 was a breakout quarter, with raised guidance
Ondas’ most recent quarterly report (Q3 2025) is central to why analysts have warmed up.
In its Nov. 13, 2025 release, Ondas reported:
- Record quarterly revenue of $10.1 million (more than 6x year-over-year, and +60% sequentially per the company’s statement)
- A pro-forma cash balance of $840.4 million (as presented in the release)
- An increased 2025 revenue target to at least $36 million
- A preliminary 2026 revenue target of at least $110 million [20]
This kind of “raise guidance + talk big about next year” language tends to attract growth investors—especially when paired with defense/security demand themes that have been strong across markets.
Investor’s Business Daily also pointed to Ondas as one of the year’s standout aerospace/defense outperformers, citing the company’s rapid growth in autonomous drone and counter-drone systems and referencing improvements in backlog and margins tied to Q3 performance. [21]
Earnings and model forecasts: what the Street expects next
Even with strong revenue growth, ONDS is still widely modeled as loss-making near term, which is typical for a company spending heavily on integration, scaling, and product expansion.
MarketBeat summarizes recent results as an EPS miss versus consensus in Q3, while also noting analysts expect EPS to improve year-over-year going forward (still negative, but less so). [22]
Nasdaq’s earnings forecast feed reflects ongoing negative EPS expectations across coming fiscal years (for example, a Dec. 2025 consensus EPS forecast of -0.33, with less-negative forecasts in later years shown in the same feed). [23]
Next earnings date: not officially posted on IR calendar
Ondas’ own IR calendar currently lists no upcoming events scheduled. [24]
Meanwhile, third-party trackers estimate the next earnings report in March 2026, but the exact date varies by provider (a normal situation when the company hasn’t confirmed):
- Zacks: expected March 11, 2026 [25]
- TipRanks: March 18, 2026 (shown as “confirmed” on its tracker page) [26]
- MarketScreener: projected March 17, 2026 [27]
The analysis investors are weighing on Dec. 16: bull case vs. bear case
Why bulls think ONDS can keep running
- Contract cadence is accelerating in counter-UAS and border security, including repeat orders and “prime contractor” positioning. [28]
- Ondas is building a layered counter-drone stack (cyber takeover + kinetic interception) via acquisitions like Sentrycs. [29]
- Management is executing a platform expansion strategy (PDW investment, Roboteam acquisition) that could broaden total addressable market across air, ground, and training/simulation. [30]
- Sell-side sentiment has strengthened: Stifel’s initiation adds another institutional voice arguing the story is still early. [31]
Why bears (and cautious bulls) are still nervous
- The stock’s volume and volatility signal speculative participation and fragile positioning—sharp pullbacks can happen even on “good” news. [32]
- The OAS exchange could increase the share count and introduces a large Q4 non-cash charge, which may create headline risk around reported results. [33]
- ONDS remains a company that, by most models, must scale efficiently and integrate acquisitions while navigating complex defense procurement cycles.
What to watch next for Ondas stock
Key near-term catalysts investors are likely tracking after Dec. 16, 2025:
- Definitive agreements and finalized terms for the OAS exchange (and the final share count tied to pricing mechanics). [34]
- Whether the border-protection tender converts into the expected initial purchase order in January 2026. [35]
- Progress on the planned Drone Fight Group investment and any concrete commercialization steps in the U.S./allied ecosystem. [36]
- Integration milestones from Sentrycs and the path toward turning “system-of-systems” messaging into measurable margins and durable backlog. [37]
- Confirmation of the next earnings date (likely March 2026, but the company hasn’t posted it on the IR calendar yet). [38]
References
1. www.tipranks.com, 2. ir.ondas.com, 3. ir.ondas.com, 4. www.marketbeat.com, 5. www.tipranks.com, 6. www.investing.com, 7. www.marketbeat.com, 8. www.tipranks.com, 9. www.tradingview.com, 10. www.marketbeat.com, 11. ir.ondas.com, 12. ir.ondas.com, 13. ir.ondas.com, 14. ir.ondas.com, 15. ir.ondas.com, 16. ir.ondas.com, 17. ir.ondas.com, 18. ir.ondas.com, 19. www.sec.gov, 20. ir.ondas.com, 21. www.investors.com, 22. www.marketbeat.com, 23. www.nasdaq.com, 24. ir.ondas.com, 25. www.zacks.com, 26. www.tipranks.com, 27. www.marketscreener.com, 28. ir.ondas.com, 29. ir.ondas.com, 30. ir.ondas.com, 31. www.tipranks.com, 32. ir.ondas.com, 33. www.sec.gov, 34. www.sec.gov, 35. ir.ondas.com, 36. ir.ondas.com, 37. ir.ondas.com, 38. ir.ondas.com
