NEW YORK, August 4, 2026, 11:10 EDT
- Shares of Opendoor gained 4.6% to reach $4.12. The company will report its second-quarter earnings following Tuesday’s market close.
- The company’s revenue forecast suggests approximately $900 million, reflecting a 25% increase from the previous quarter but representing a 42.6% decline compared to the same period last year.
- Initial estimates indicate there were approximately 2,400 homes sold, an increase of nearly 480 compared to the first quarter.
Shares of Opendoor Technologies Inc. NASDAQ:OPEN rose 4.6% on Tuesday, with investors preparing for the company’s second-quarter results. The stock was last at $4.12, giving the online home buying and selling firm a market capitalization of around $4 billion.
The main issue is not a recovery in revenue. In the first quarter, Opendoor acquired 553 more properties than it sold, building up inventory to enable quicker closings.
The more difficult challenge is conversion. The company needs to increase revenue by roughly 25%, raise its contribution margin towards 6%, and bring adjusted EBITDA to break even.
Opendoor traded ahead of both the broader market and housing-related benchmarks in late-morning hours.
| Instrument | Last price | Day change |
|---|---|---|
| Opendoor Technologies NASDAQ:OPEN | $4.12 | up 4.6% |
| Offerpad Solutions Inc. NYSE:OPAD | $4.48 | rising 22.7% |
| SPDR S&P 500 ETF NYSEARCA:SPY | $765.87 | higher by 1.1% |
| Invesco QQQ Trust NASDAQ:QQQ | $715.73 | increased 2.2% |
| SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (NYSEARCA:XHB) | $107.76 | added 1.3% |
Prices were recorded just before 11:10 EDT.
Offerpad shares rose after the company reported earnings on Monday. Yet, with fewer than 45,000 shares traded, the move provided little indication for the broader sector.
Opendoor’s stated forecast gives investors a straightforward list of operating priorities.
| Metric | Q1 2026 actual | Q2 2026 hurdle | Required shift |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $720 million | About $900 million | Quarter-on-quarter growth of 25% |
| Contribution margin | 4.4% | About 6% midpoint | Increase of 160 basis points |
| Adjusted EBITDA | $(31) million | Breakeven, plus or minus a few million | Needs to improve by about $31 million |
| GAAP EPS | $(0.18) | $(0.07) preliminary consensus | Loss narrowed by $0.11 |
Revenue, margin and EBITDA numbers are based on company guidance. The EPS number comes from the FactSet consensus provided by MarketWatch.
Analyst sentiment on FactSet continues to show caution. Out of the group, two analysts suggest buying the shares, six recommend holding, and two advise selling. The average price target stands at $4.95, which is roughly 20% higher than Tuesday’s closing value, with target projections spanning from $1 to $8.
An initial operating bridge illustrates the importance of inventory turnover over headline sales.
| Throughput calculation | Preliminary value |
|---|---|
| Q1 average revenue per home sale | About $374,805 |
| Estimated revenue in Q2 | About $900 million |
| Number of homes required if revenue per sale remains flat | About 2,401 |
| Incremental units sold compared to Q1 | About 480 |
| Net homes acquired in Q1 | +553 |
| Inventory of homes as of March 31 | 3,420 |
Figures are based on disclosed first-quarter revenue, unit sales, and the management goal of a 25% quarter-on-quarter revenue increase.
The net gain of 553 homes surpasses the approximately 480 additional closings indicated by guidance. This points to adequate capacity for volume, assuming resale pace and sale prices remain stable.
The estimate is subject to limitations. Opendoor generates revenue through title, escrow, and brokerage services as well, meaning home count by itself will not fully reflect reported revenue.
The portfolio grew as inventory quality got better.
| Operating metric | Q4 2025 | Q1 2026 | Sequential change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Homes acquired | 1,706 | 2,474 | +45.0% |
| Homes disposed | 1,978 | 1,921 | -2.9% |
| Properties in inventory | 2,867 | 3,420 | +19.3% |
| Inventory valuation | $925 million | $1.139 billion | +23.1% |
| Homes on market over 120 days | 33% | 10% | -23 percentage points |
Company-reported data was used to determine percentages.
This provides the clearest indication backing the turnaround, as older inventory declined markedly while buying activity picked up, reducing concern that expansion was fueled by outdated assets.
Chief Executive Kaz Nejatian stated in May that “the machine is working.” The report on Tuesday will need to demonstrate its effectiveness with a broader acquisition base. SEC
Offerpad on Monday posted results showing a continued focus on margins. Revenue dropped 52% to $77.7 million, but gross margin climbed to 9.2% from 6.9% quarter-on-quarter. Adjusted EBITDA loss narrowed to $6.2 million. The figures highlight the market’s emphasis on unit economics over sheer volume.
Opendoor is scheduled to announce its results following the market close. The Financial Open House event is set to start at 5 p.m. EDT. Initial focus is expected on contribution margin, adjusted EBITDA, and aged inventory.
Risks: A lengthier resale period, increased mortgage rates, or declining home prices may lead to price reductions and inventory write-downs. As of March 31, Opendoor’s inventory stood at $1.139 billion, with approximately $1.138 billion in non-recourse asset-backed debt. Operating cash outflow for Q1 totaled $246 million.
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