NEW YORK, June 10, 2026, 05:03 EDT
Oracle stock slipped ahead of its earnings report Wednesday, as investors want signs the company can turn its big AI cloud backlog into revenue to match its data-center outlays. Shares were recently at $205.81, off 2.8%, in early New York trading.
Oracle said it will release fiscal fourth-quarter numbers after the close on Wednesday, with a call set for 4:00 p.m. Central Time. The timing is tight.
This isn’t just a normal earnings report. The stock dropped about 3% Tuesday, ending below $206. It’s almost 16% lower over the past week, as the market focused on Oracle’s debt and its exposure to major AI clients like OpenAI.
Oracle’s key metric is remaining performance obligations, or RPO—future revenue from contracts that hasn’t turned into sales yet. Oracle reported RPO of $553 billion at the end of its fiscal third quarter, a 325% jump from a year ago. Visible Alpha estimates shared by S&P Global see full-year RPO at $600 billion.
Oracle is forecast to post Q4 revenue of $19.1 billion, about 20% above last year, and full-year revenue that’s expected to jump 17% to $67.3 billion. Cloud sales are projected to rise 39% in fiscal 2026, topping half of Oracle’s total revenue, according to S&P Global.
Options are signaling a big move. Pricing lately showed traders were bracing for Oracle to swing up or down by as much as 11% this week after earnings.
Wall Street is still on board. Bank of America upped its price target for Oracle to $240, from $200, and kept its buy call. TheStreet said the firm pointed to higher demand for cloud and database workloads, and less worry over funding after Oracle’s recent financing steps.
Oracle’s March quarter numbers gave bulls more fuel. Revenue came in at $17.2 billion, up 22%. Cloud revenue hit $8.9 billion, up 44%, while cloud infrastructure sales jumped 84% to $4.9 billion. For the fourth quarter, Oracle is guiding to revenue growth of 19% to 21% in U.S. dollars and non-GAAP EPS between $1.96 and $2.00.
Oracle is pushing to get a bigger slice of AI computing, going up against much larger cloud players like Amazon Web Services and Microsoft Azure. In March, Reuters said Oracle was making a major move into data centers for partners like OpenAI and Meta. Jacob Bourne, an analyst at eMarketer, called the quarter “a beat and a stress test” for Oracle’s AI business. Reuters
Oracle execs say the company can boost profits if customers use more add-on services alongside its core computing. Co-CEO Clay Magouyrk said in March that Oracle Cloud Infrastructure’s margins “continue to strengthen,” according to Reuters. Reuters
There’s also a clear bearish scenario here: If data-center buildouts are delayed, capex spends top forecasts, or if OpenAI’s funding becomes shaky, then Oracle’s backlog could start to look less like booked business and more like a debt load. OpenAI on Monday said it had filed confidentially for a U.S. IPO. No decision on timing yet.
Oracle is telling investors to look for $67 billion in fiscal 2026 revenue, with $50 billion in capex. The company also raised its fiscal 2027 revenue target to $90 billion. Whether those numbers hold up as base cases or face more scrutiny could show up in Wednesday’s results.
