New York, July 6, 2026, 09:05 (EDT)
- Oracle Corporation NYSE:ORCL traded up roughly 2.6% before the bell, bouncing after falling 24% across the past nine sessions.
- Oracle has $638 billion in remaining performance obligations, which comes out to about 1.6 times its current market cap. But free cash flow in fiscal 2026 was negative $23.7 billion.
- Google Finance listed 28 buys and four holds on the stock, no sells. The average price target is 88% above the $140.27 close.
Oracle Corporation NYSE:ORCL shares looked ready to bounce in premarket trading on Monday. Still, the main question for investors is whether Wall Street will keep backing a company with a backlog much bigger than its market cap.
The New York Stock Exchange says Friday, July 3, will be its Independence Day holiday in 2026. Trading will resume Monday. New York Stock Exchange Oracle finished the last session at $140.27, down 1.56%. Investing.com quoted Oracle at $143.93 premarket at 08:52:54, up 2.61%.
Oracle has dropped 24% over nine days of losses, Barron’s said Monday, marking the tech giant’s longest losing run since 2021. Shares now trade near their 52-week low of $134.57, well off the 52-week high of $345.72.
| Oracle price check | Figure |
|---|---|
| Closed yesterday | $140.27 |
| Premarket now | $143.93 |
| Premarket change | +2.61% |
| 12-month low | $134.57 |
| 12-month high | $345.72 |
| Market cap | $408.5 bln |
Investors are facing an odd disconnect between Oracle’s stock and its order book. The company said its remaining performance obligations jumped by $85 billion in the fourth quarter to $638 billion, up 363% from the same period last year. Oracle’s current market cap sits at around $408.5 billion, so RPO is about 1.56 times the equity value.
| Backlog and cash strain | Figure |
|---|---|
| RPO ended Q4 at | $638 bln |
| Q4 RPO change | $85 bln |
| RPO to market cap | 1.56x |
| 2026 op cash flow forecast | $32.0 bln |
| 2026 free cash flow | -$23.7 bln |
| 2026 debt issued | $43 bln |
| 2026 equity issued | $5 bln |
| 2027 expected financing | About $40 bln |
This helps explain why the shares aren’t behaving like other software rebound names. Oracle reported cloud infrastructure revenue up 93% in Q4, but it also posted fiscal 2026 free cash flow at negative $23.7 billion due to heavy spending on cloud buildout. Oracle plans to raise about $40 billion in fiscal 2027 with debt and equity, including that earlier $20 billion at-the-market equity sale.
Oracle CEO Clay Magouyrk said in a post after the company’s earnings that it booked “$67 Billion in AI Infrastructure contracts” in the quarter. He also put customer prepayments and bring-your-own-hardware contracts at $75 billion. Magouyrk called the AI infrastructure space a “trillions of dollars per year” market. Oracle Blogs
The funding issue is still on the table. Oracle is projecting as much as $95 billion in capital spending for fiscal 2027, according to Reuters. Of that, $70 billion would be Oracle’s own spending, and $20 billion to $25 billion is set to be reimbursed by customers. CFO Hilary Maxson said on a call that gross margins will “step down” in fiscal 2027 as more data-center projects get underway. Reuters
“The demand is real,” eMarketer analyst Jacob Bourne told Reuters. But he also said, “the funding question is getting harder, not easier.” Magouyrk told analysts Oracle’s fiscal first-quarter delivery was “approaching one gigawatt,” which was almost as much as the capacity delivered over the last four quarters combined. Reuters
Analysts are still bullish. Google Finance lists 28 buys, four holds, and zero sells from 32 analysts over the past three months. Their 12-month average target is $263.86, which is 88.1% over the last close of $140.27. Billy Fitzsimmons at Piper Sandler kept his buy rating and a $225 target as of July 6.
| Analyst screen | Figure |
|---|---|
| Buy calls | 28 |
| Holds | 4 |
| Sells | 0 |
| Average price target | $263.86 |
| Street high target | $400.00 |
| Street low target | $190.00 |
| Upside to average/consensus | 88.1% |
Investing.com reported Oracle moved up in premarket trade Monday after William Blair put the stock on its Conviction List sometime in the last day. The outlet also noted Oracle’s next ex-dividend date is July 10, with a 50-cent quarterly dividend.
Shareholders are now weighing Oracle’s (ORCL) debt, equity pressures and margins ahead of its booked AI cloud contracts turning into cash. The question isn’t if Oracle can sell the capacity—it already has—but what the balance sheet will look like until those sales are realized.
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