Oracle (ORCL) Stock Today: What Investors Need to Know Before the Market Opens on December 8, 2025

Oracle Corporation heads into a pivotal trading week this Monday with its share price stabilizing, a huge artificial‑intelligence backlog under the microscope, and Wall Street bracing for both a Federal Reserve rate decision and Oracle’s next earnings report.

Here’s a concise, investor‑focused rundown of everything that matters for ORCL stock before the U.S. market opens on December 8, 2025.

1. Pre‑market snapshot: Oracle is ticking higher

As of around 8:30 a.m. EST on December 8, Oracle stock is trading near $220–221 in pre‑market action, up roughly 1.4–1.7% versus Friday’s regular-session close of $217.58. ^[1]

Key levels to know:

Friday’s close: ~$217.58 per share. ^[2]
Pre‑market range so far today: roughly $218–222. ^[3]
52‑week range: about $118.86 to $345.72. ^[4]

Even after this morning’s bounce, ORCL trades about 35–40% below its early‑September peak around the mid‑$340s, reflecting a sharp comedown from the AI euphoria that sent shares to record highs this summer. One recent analysis noted that at the lows, the stock had fallen more than 45% from its September peak before bargain hunters stepped in. ^[5]

2. Earnings date: Ignore outdated calendars – the big report is on December 10

A crucial point for traders this morning: Oracle is not reporting earnings today, despite some older calendars still showing a December 8 date.

Some third‑party sites (including a recent MarketBeat earnings blurb) still list Q2 FY26 results as due “before the open” on Monday, December 8, with consensus EPS around $1.63 on ~$16.2 billion in revenue. ^[6]
However, Oracle’s own investor relations site and a December 2 update confirm that Q2 FY26 results will be released on Wednesday, December 10, 2025, after the U.S. market close, followed by a 4:00 p.m. CT conference call. ^[7]

Consensus expectations heading into that report:

Adjusted EPS: about $1.64, up roughly 11–12% year over year. ^[8]
Revenue: around $16.2 billion, implying about 15% year‑over‑year growth. ^[9]

Last quarter (Q1 FY26), Oracle delivered revenue of roughly $14.9 billion (up ~12% YoY), with cloud revenue growing close to 28% and now representing nearly half of total sales. ^[10]

In June, management also raised its fiscal 2026 revenue outlook to at least $67 billion, driven by accelerating demand for AI‑related cloud services – a target investors will listen for on Wednesday’s call. ^[11]

3. Options market: double‑digit move priced in

Options traders are clearly bracing for volatility around Oracle’s earnings and the Fed:

TipRanks’ options data shows the market pricing in roughly a 10.8% move (up or down) in ORCL shares following the Q2 release – a bit lower than the stock’s average ~13.5% post‑earnings swing over the last four quarters. ^[12]
Optionslam’s earnings‑volatility model similarly estimates an implied weekly move of around 11% into the December 12 options expiry. ^[13]

For short‑term traders, that means two obvious catalysts this week:

The Fed’s rate decision and Jerome Powell’s comments, and
Oracle’s earnings and guidance on Wednesday night.

4. The AI engine: $455B backlog and a $300B OpenAI deal

The core of the Oracle story this morning is unchanged: the company is levered to a massive AI infrastructure build‑out – and that cuts both ways.

A colossal backlog

In its Q1 FY26 earnings release (September 9), Oracle reported that:

Remaining performance obligations (RPO) – essentially contracted future revenue – jumped 359% year‑on‑year to about $455 billion, after signing four multi‑billion‑dollar cloud deals. ^[14]
Management said they expect RPO to exceed half a trillion dollars “over the next few months.” ^[15]

An Investopedia round‑up of that quarter called it a “truly historic” moment for AI infrastructure, noting that Oracle forecast its cloud revenue could climb toward $144 billion by 2030—roughly $50 billion above Wall Street’s prior expectations, with much of that already reflected in backlog. ^[16]

The OpenAI “Stargate” mega‑contract

A huge slice of this backlog comes from a landmark deal with OpenAI:

OpenAI has agreed to purchase roughly $300 billion of computing capacity from Oracle over about five years, one of the largest such contracts ever reported. ^[17]
Analysis of company disclosures suggests around $317 billion of Oracle’s RPO is tied to the OpenAI arrangement, giving the partnership outsized importance for Oracle’s long‑term story. ^[18]
The agreement is part of the broader “Stargate” project, in which OpenAI, Oracle, SoftBank and partners plan to build up to ~30 gigawatts of AI computing capacity in the U.S. over the coming years. ^[19]

For bulls, this positions Oracle as the back‑end infrastructure provider to some of the world’s most demanding AI workloads. For bears, it creates concentration risk: a large chunk of Oracle’s multiyear revenue depends on OpenAI’s own execution, financing, and regulatory environment. ^[20]

5. Fresh AI infrastructure updates: Dedicated Regions, AI Factory, AMD superclusters

Beyond contracts and backlog, Oracle has spent the autumn expanding its hardware and services footprint:

At Oracle AI World (October 14), the company launched OCI Dedicated Region 25, a smaller‑footprint version of its distributed cloud that lets customers run 200+ AI and cloud services inside their own data centers, with as few as three racks. ^[21]
Oracle also introduced the Oracle AI Factory, a suite of programs, playbooks and services meant to help enterprises move AI projects from experimentation to production, including tools like Oracle AI Agent Studio and AI‑enabled Fusion applications. ^[22]
On the hardware side, Oracle and AMD unveiled plans for a massive AI supercluster powered by 50,000 AMD Instinct MI450 GPUs, with deployment starting in Q3 2026, and new OCI shapes using the MI355X GPUs that can scale to over 130,000 GPUs in a single supercluster. ^[23]

These announcements underpin the “AI super‑cycle” thesis that some analysts are pushing (more on that below), but they also demand enormous capital spending—a key concern for credit markets and more cautious equity investors. ^[24]

6. Wall Street on ORCL this morning: Bulls, bears, and everything in between

New and notable calls around December 7–8

Several fresh pieces of research and commentary dropped just before today’s open:

Mizuho: Reiterated an “Outperform” rating and a $400 price target, even after a steep pullback in the shares. The firm still expects a “solid” Q2 print, but emphasizes that investors need clarity on how Oracle will fund its AI data center expansion, given negative free cash flow and a reliance on vendor financing and leases. ^[25]
Bernstein: Reaffirmed “Outperform” with a $364 target, arguing that Oracle remains one of the best‑positioned companies in AI infrastructure, despite the stock dropping about 10% over the past three months and the share price digesting more than $300 billion of incremental booked business. ^[26]
Wells Fargo: Recently initiated coverage at “Overweight” with a $280 target, calling Oracle a potential leader of the AI “super‑cycle” and highlighting nearly $500 billion in AI‑related bookings and a leading position with customers like OpenAI, xAI, Meta and TikTok. ^[27]

Yet the same Wells Fargo‑covered story flags rising credit‑risk worries:

Oracle’s five‑year credit default swaps (CDS) have climbed to about 1.28 percentage points a year, nearly tripling since June and hitting levels last seen in 2009, as investors fret about an AI bubble and the company’s funding needs. ^[28]
Reports suggest Oracle and data‑center partner Vantage are exploring up to $38 billion in additional borrowing to finance new AI facilities tied to the OpenAI deal. ^[29]

Valuation resets and “buy the dip” arguments

Recent bullish commentary leans heavily on the idea that the worst of the AI overvaluation has been wrung out:

A Seeking Alpha piece on December 7 argued that Oracle’s ~45% drop from its September peak has largely cleansed the prior AI mania premium. The author estimates roughly $300 billion of the $455 billion backlog is effectively OpenAI‑linked, but still upgrades the stock to a “Buy”, citing strong software margins even as free cash flow is expected to remain negative through FY2028 due to capex. ^[30]
Another recent analysis, titled “Oracle Q2 Preview: Ignore OpenAI Backlog at Your Peril,” frames the stock as a Buy precisely because of its half‑trillion‑dollar backlog, arguing that skeptics underestimate how much of that could convert into revenue and cash flows. ^[31]
A Yahoo Finance column late last week framed the near‑40% slide from the 52‑week high as a potential long‑term buying opportunity for investors willing to ride out short‑term volatility and balance‑sheet risk. ^[32]

More cautious voices

Not every analyst is pounding the table:

RBC Capital maintains a “Sector Perform” (Hold) rating and a $310 price target, pointing to customer concentration risks in OCI, potential margin pressure, and increased leverage as reasons for caution going into earnings. ^[33]
Citigroup recently trimmed its target from $415 to $375, still rating the stock a Buy but flagging valuation, leverage and execution risks even as it expects strong bookings to continue. ^[34]
Governance and accounting commentators have questioned how Oracle presents its $455B RPO number, arguing that some of the commitments may be more conditional or back‑loaded than headline figures suggest under revenue‑recognition rules. ^[35]

Where consensus stands this morning

Pulling together several data providers:

Rating: Generally around “Moderate Buy” to “Buy.”
- MarketBeat shows a mix of Strong Buy/Buy/Hold/Sell recommendations, skewed heavily toward the buy side. TechStock²
- TipRanks lists 25 Buys, 11 Holds, and 1 Sell, with an average price target near $350, implying roughly 60% upside from current levels. ^[36]
- StockAnalysis aggregates around 31 analysts, with a mean target close to the mid‑$330s and a high near $400. ^[37]
Implied upside: Depending on the source, 12‑month targets cluster around 45–60% above today’s ~$220–221 share price. TechStock²+2TipRanks+2

In other words, the Street is broadly positive but increasingly split on how to balance Oracle’s AI opportunity against its leverage and execution risks.

7. Macro backdrop: Fed, futures and AI sentiment

The broader market context also matters for ORCL at today’s open:

U.S. stock futures are modestly higher this morning as Wall Street awaits the Federal Reserve’s final 2025 policy meeting, with odds heavily favoring a rate cut this week. ^[38]
Several market previews flag Oracle, Adobe, Broadcom and Costco as key earnings to watch for a late‑year read on cloud demand, AI investment and enterprise IT spending. ^[39]
Across earnings season, mentions of “AI” on conference calls have hit record levels, and Oracle is now seen as one of the bellwethers for how much real revenue is following all that rhetoric. ^[40]

If the Fed is more dovish than expected, richly valued AI and cloud names like Oracle could see renewed inflows. A hawkish surprise, or further headlines about AI bubbles and over‑investment, could just as easily pressure the group.

8. What to watch in ORCL once the bell rings

Here are the practical focal points for traders and investors as regular trading begins today:

1. Can Oracle hold the $210–$215 support band?

Recent technical commentary highlights:

Repeated buying interest in the high‑$180s to high‑$190s, where the stock bounced after its autumn plunge.
The $215–220 area as a short‑term battleground ahead of heavier resistance in the mid‑$200s. TechStock²

If pre‑market gains stick and ORCL holds above ~$210–215 into Wednesday, it will strengthen the case that dip‑buyers are re‑establishing control ahead of earnings. A decisive break back below $200 would signal that AI and credit fears still dominate the narrative. TechStock²+1

2. Options and volatility

Keep an eye on:

Implied volatility in Oracle options versus other mega‑cap AI names.
Whether traders push short‑dated calls or puts into Wednesday night, effectively betting on a move larger (or smaller) than the ~11% the options market currently prices in. ^[41]

3. New headlines on AI deals or financing

Any pre‑earnings press release or leak around:

Additional large AI or cloud contracts (OpenAI, Meta, xAI, TikTok, etc.), ^[42]
New debt issuance or structured financing for data centers, ^[43]
Or regulatory developments around AI infrastructure and energy usage,

could move the stock even before Oracle reports.

4. For long‑term investors: three big questions

Across this weekend’s research and commentary, three strategic questions keep coming up: TechStock²+2Oracle Investor Relations+2

Conversion: Can Oracle turn a $455B+ backlog into high‑margin cash flows fast enough, before some of today’s AI hardware becomes obsolete?
Balance sheet risk: Is the recent drawdown in the share price sufficient compensation for higher leverage, rising CDS spreads and the prospect of negative free cash flow for several years? ^[44]
Valuation vs growth: Does a combination of massive AI demand, deep enterprise relationships, and aggressive cloud expansion justify today’s valuation multiples—or is more downside needed if AI spending normalizes or OpenAI stumbles? ^[45]

9. Bottom line before the bell on December 8, 2025

Heading into today’s open, Oracle sits at the crossroads of:

A major Fed decision that could reset the macro backdrop for all high‑growth tech,
A high‑stakes Q2 FY26 earnings report on December 10, and
A growing debate over how much leverage and AI risk is “too much” for a company with one of the largest contracted backlogs in history. TechStock²+1

Pre‑market trading shows buyers willing to lean in around the low‑$220s, but options markets are pricing in a big move either way, and analyst opinions are increasingly polarized between “discounted AI hyperscaler” and “potentially over‑levered AI build‑out.” ^[46]

For traders, that spells volatility and opportunity over the next few sessions. For longer‑term investors, this week is less about a single EPS print and more about what Oracle’s management says on Wednesday night about:

Funding its AI infrastructure plans,
The pace and quality of backlog conversion, and
The durability of its OpenAI‑centric cloud thesis.

As always, none of this is a recommendation to buy or sell Oracle shares. It’s essential to consider your own risk tolerance, time horizon, and diversification, and to consult a licensed financial adviser if you need personalized advice.