NEW YORK, December 28, 2025, 18:53 ET — Market closed
- Oracle shares last closed up 0.25% at $197.99; the stock last traded at $196.90 in after-hours. [1]
- Investors remain focused on Oracle’s higher spending plans for AI cloud capacity and how quickly those outlays translate into profit and cash flow.
- The Fed’s Dec. 9-10 meeting minutes, due Tuesday, are a key near-term macro event for rate-sensitive tech shares into year-end. [2]
Oracle (ORCL.N) shares last closed up 0.25% at $197.99 on Friday, hovering just below the $200 level in a light, post-holiday session. The stock last traded at $196.90 in after-hours dealing. [3]
With just three trading days left in 2025, Oracle has become a key test of investor appetite for big-ticket AI infrastructure bets. The company’s plans to expand cloud data center capacity have kept traders focused on funding needs and payoffs, not just topline growth.
That matters now because liquidity typically thins into year-end, and small headlines can move stocks more than usual. Oracle’s recent slide after guidance and spending updates has made the shares sensitive to any shift in sentiment around AI buildouts.
The broader market offered little direction on Friday. The Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq finished slightly lower, snapping a five-session rally in a session where volume was well below the recent average, Reuters reported.
Investors are also watching the “Santa Claus rally,” a seasonal pattern in which the S&P 500 often rises through the last five trading days of the year and the first two of the next. Reuters said the period began on Wednesday and runs through January 5.
For Oracle, the latest big catalyst remains its December outlook and capital spending plans. The company forecast sales and profit below analyst estimates while saying spending would rise sharply, Reuters reported, sharpening concern that AI-linked outlays are ramping faster than profits.
Oracle executives said capital expenditures for fiscal 2026 are expected to be $15 billion higher than the $35 billion figure the company estimated in September, Reuters reported. Capital expenditures, or capex, is money spent on long-lived assets such as buildings and equipment — including data centers.
Oracle also forecast fiscal third-quarter revenue growth of 16% to 18% and adjusted profit of $1.64 to $1.68 per share, both below estimates compiled by LSEG, Reuters reported.
A closely watched demand gauge has added to the debate. Oracle said remaining performance obligations — contracted sales not yet recognized as revenue — rose 15% sequentially to $523 billion in the quarter ended Nov. 30; Reuters reported the $523 billion total was up 14.94% from September but below some analyst forecasts. [4]
Oracle’s AI push is tied to large cloud deals, including data center work for OpenAI. Reuters has also reported OpenAI is working with Broadcom to develop a custom AI chip.
Oracle later pushed back on a report that some OpenAI-related data centers had been delayed. “There have been no delays to any sites required to meet our contractual commitments, and all milestones remain on track,” spokesperson Michael Egbert told Reuters.
On the tape, Oracle traded between $196.11 and $200.37 in the last session, leaving the $200 mark as a near-term technical level for traders to watch into the final days of the year. [5]
Before the next session, markets will focus on the Federal Reserve’s minutes from its Dec. 9-10 meeting, due at 2 p.m. ET on Tuesday. Investors are also watching for year-end portfolio adjustments that can exaggerate moves in thin trading.
The Fed’s benchmark rate currently stands at 3.50% to 3.75% after its December decision, keeping rate expectations in the spotlight for tech stocks. Bond-yield swings often hit high-valuation names the hardest.
On the company calendar, Oracle’s board declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.50 per share, payable Jan. 23 to shareholders of record Jan. 9, according to a filing and the company’s earnings release. Oracle’s investor relations FAQ says fiscal third-quarter results are due in mid-March 2026.
For Oracle shareholders, the next test is whether the company can keep expanding AI cloud capacity while easing concerns about the pace of spending. Into year-end, the stock’s ability to reclaim $200 would be a closely watched tell for risk appetite around the name.
References
1. stockanalysis.com, 2. www.federalreserve.gov, 3. stockanalysis.com, 4. investor.oracle.com, 5. stockanalysis.com
