Oracle Stock Price Forecast 2026: Can AI and Cloud Growth Reignite ORCL After Its 2025 Sell‑Off?

As 2026 approaches, Oracle Corporation (NYSE: ORCL) has become one of the most hotly debated names in the artificial intelligence and cloud infrastructure trade. After a huge run-up earlier in 2025 and a sharp correction later in the year, investors are asking a simple but loaded question: where could Oracle’s stock price be by 2026?

This article pulls together the latest earnings, AI strategy news, Wall Street analyst targets, and quantitative models to map out a 2026 forecast range for Oracle stock — and the key factors that could push ORCL toward the bullish or bearish end of that range.

Note: All figures and consensus data are current as of late November 2025 and may change. This article is for information only and is not financial advice.

1. Where Oracle Stock Stands Heading Into 2026

Current price and recent performance

• Oracle currently trades around $200–$202 per share, giving it a market capitalization in the mid‑$500 billion range. ^[1]
• According to TradingNews, ORCL is down about 41% from its 2025 peak of $345.72, following an aggressive AI and data‑center investment spree that spooked parts of the market. ^[2]

Fundamentally, Oracle remains a highly profitable tech giant:

• Fiscal 2025 (year ended May 31, 2025) revenue was about $57–59 billion, up high‑single digits year over year, with net income over $12 billion. ^[3]
• Cloud services and license support revenue hit $11.7 billion in Q4 FY2025, up 14% year over year, and total quarterly revenue reached $15.9 billion, up 11%. ^[4]

So why the dramatic sell‑off in late 2025?

The 2025 “AI whiplash” in ORCL

Oracle was initially one of the biggest winners of the AI infrastructure boom:

• The company signed huge cloud and AI contracts — including a multi‑hundred‑billion‑dollar OpenAI compute deal and large commitments from Meta — driving a backlog that some analysts estimate in the hundreds of billions of dollars. ^[5]
• Jefferies highlighted a cloud deal expected to generate $30 billion a year starting in fiscal 2028, and lifted its price target to $270, at one point the most bullish on Wall Street. ^[6]

But sentiment shifted sharply later in 2025 as investors began to worry about:

• Debt and leverage: Oracle’s net debt is estimated around $100+ billion, with leverage above 4x debt‑to‑equity, making it one of the most indebted mega‑cap tech names. ^[7]
• Negative free cash flow: Massive data‑center and GPU capex (over $20 billion in FY2025, and rising) temporarily pushed levered free cash flow negative, even as reported operating cash flow remained strong. ^[8]
• Credit and macro risk: Credit default swaps widened and Morgan Stanley publicly flagged Oracle as a key candidate for shorting via credit derivatives, citing its leveraged AI build‑out. ^[9]

Commentary from outlets like Forbes, Barron’s, and The Motley Fool now ranges from “How Low Can Oracle Stock Sink?” to “Oracle Might Be the Riskiest AI Stock as Bubble Fears Grow,” reflecting a genuine split in market opinion. ^[10]

All of that sets the stage for a high‑stakes 2026: either Oracle proves that its AI investments are justified, or the bears may gain the upper hand.

2. Oracle’s Fundamental Outlook for 2026: AI, Cloud, and a Giant Backlog

If you strip out the drama around the stock, Oracle’s operating outlook for FY2026 (the year ending May 2026) is strikingly aggressive.

FY2025 results and FY2026 guidance

From Oracle’s own disclosures and independent analysis: ^[11]

• Q4 FY2025 revenue: $15.9 billion, up 11% year over year.
• Cloud revenue (IaaS + SaaS): $6.7 billion, up 27% year over year.
  • IaaS (OCI) revenue: $3 billion, up 52%.
  • SaaS cloud applications: $3.7 billion, up 12%.
• Remaining performance obligations (RPO / backlog): $138 billion, up 41% year over year.

Management’s guidance for FY2026 is even more bullish:

• Total revenue expected to grow at least 16% in constant currency to roughly $67 billion.
• Total cloud growth (apps + infrastructure) expected to accelerate above 40%.
• OCI (infrastructure) growth expected to exceed 70%.
• RPO is “likely to grow more than 100%” as large AI and hyperscaler contracts ramp. ^[12]

In other words, Oracle is guiding to faster growth in 2026 than in 2025, fueled largely by AI infrastructure demand.

AI platforms and partnerships: Oracle’s 2026 growth engine

Oracle is trying to position itself not just as a cloud provider, but as a full‑stack AI platform:

• Oracle AI Data Platform (GA October 2025) helps customers connect enterprise data to generative AI models on Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI), with embedded vector search, agent orchestration, and support for multi‑cloud data. ^[13]
• Oracle AI Factory adds consulting‑like services and structured programs to help customers deploy AI faster and measure business outcomes. ^[14]
• Oracle has been recognized as a market leader in AI agents and conversational AI, scoring top marks in ISG’s 2025 buyer guides for AI agents and workforce conversational AI. ^[15]

On the model side, Oracle is leaning heavily into partnerships:

• A major expansion of its partnership with Google Cloud allows Oracle customers to access Gemini 2.5 and other Gemini models via OCI’s Generative AI service, with plans to bring Gemini into Oracle Fusion Cloud Applications via Vertex AI integrations. ^[16]
• Oracle is also a key infrastructure partner for OpenAI via the “Stargate” AI initiative and large GPU‑rich data‑center build‑outs across multiple regions. ^[17]

Long‑term targets beyond 2026

Oracle’s long‑term narrative is built around AI and cloud infrastructure scale:

• The company projects OCI infrastructure revenue of $166 billion by FY2030, with cloud infrastructure accounting for nearly three‑quarters of total sales. ^[18]
• Total revenue by FY2030 is targeted around $225 billion, up from roughly $57–59 billion in FY2025. ^[19]

If Oracle gets anywhere near those numbers, 2026 would be just the early mid‑game of a much longer AI infrastructure story.

3. Wall Street’s Oracle Stock Price Targets into 2026

While Oracle’s financial guidance stops at FY2026, analyst price targets provide a window into how professionals currently see ORCL’s value over roughly the next 12 months — which for late‑2025 forecasts effectively stretches well into late 2026.

Analyst ratings

• TipRanks shows a “Moderate Buy” consensus from 37 analysts, with 25 Buy, 11 Hold, and 1 Sell rating. ^[20]
• StockAnalysis lists Oracle’s consensus rating as “Buy”, based on analyst coverage, with strong cloud and AI growth cited as key drivers. ^[21]

So, broadly, Wall Street still leans bullish, but the level of enthusiasm varies by firm.

12‑month price targets (late‑2025 snapshot)

Different data aggregators report slightly different numbers, but they’re clustering in a similar band:

• MarketBeat:
  • Average 12‑month target: ≈ $324.9
  • High: $410, Low: $130
  • Implies ~61% upside from a ~$201.6 share price. ^[22]
• StockAnalysis.com:
  • Average target: ≈ $337.9
  • Implied upside: ~67% from recent prices. ^[23]
• Zacks (consensus targets):
  • Average target: about $346.6, with a low around $175. ^[24]
• Investing.com:
  • Average 12‑month target: ≈ $342.3
  • Range: $175.1 – $430
  • Analyst breakdown: 30 Buy, 10 Hold, 2 Sell (overall “Buy”). ^[25]
• TradingView analyst consensus:
  • Average target: ≈ $347.4
  • Range: $175.1 – $430. ^[26]
• TickerNerd (summary of 52 Wall Street analysts):
  • Median target: ≈ $355
  • Range: $175.1 – $430
  • Overall stance: “Strong Buy”. ^[27]

If you average those platforms, you end up with a blended 12‑month target around $340–$345 per share, roughly 70% above Oracle’s current price near $202. ^[28]

Importantly:

• The upside case in traditional analyst models often reaches the $400–430 range. ^[29]
• The downside / conservative targets cluster in the $130–$190 band, near or below today’s price. ^[30]

Notable individual calls

• Jefferies: Raised its target from $220 to $270 in mid‑2025, citing a transformational $30 billion‑per‑year cloud deal and Oracle’s expanding role in AI infrastructure. ^[31]
• Deutsche Bank: Recently reiterated a Buy rating with a $375 price target, emphasizing Oracle’s long‑term AI potential even after the stock’s pullback. ^[32]
• Redburn Atlantic (Alex Haissl): Initiated coverage with a Sell rating and a $175 target, arguing Oracle’s AI contracts and capacity build‑out may not justify its earlier valuation. ^[33]

Put together, the sell‑side view for late‑2026 ranges from deep skepticism (targets around $175) to very bullish (targets above $400), with the center of gravity in the mid‑$300s.

4. Quant Models and Algorithmic 2026 Forecasts for ORCL

Wall Street isn’t the only source of forecasts. Several quantitative and algorithmic models also attempt to predict Oracle’s 2026 share price — often with a more cautious tone.

CoinCodex algorithmic forecast

CoinCodex uses historical price patterns, volatility, and technical indicators to generate its ORCL projections: ^[34]

• Short‑term:
  • 1‑year forecast suggests a price around $183.3, roughly 9% below current levels.
  • Near‑term sentiment is flagged as bearish, with most technical indicators pointing lower.
• Long‑term:
  • A 2030 forecast around $441.6, implying roughly 120% upside over five years if the model pans out.

Benzinga’s 2026 table (CoinCodex‑based)

A Benzinga deep dive on Oracle aggregates CoinCodex’s multi‑year projections into a quick snapshot table. For 2026, their table shows: ^[35]

• Bullish projection:$198.93
• Average projection:$171.32
• Bearish projection:$139.56

Those numbers were computed when ORCL traded closer to $300 earlier in 2025, so they effectively implied a pullback in 2026 — something that has partially already happened by late 2025.

LongForecast (Economy Forecast Agency)

The Economy Forecast Agency’s LongForecast tool offers a month‑by‑month Oracle forecast:

• For April 2026, it expects an average price around $161, starting near $149 and potentially reaching up to $179.
• By late 2026, the model has Oracle in the mid‑$240s to mid‑$260s, with forecasts around $242–$263 at the end of November–December 2026. ^[36]

Quant vs. Wall Street: a split view

Comparing all this:

• Quant/technical models (CoinCodex, LongForecast) tend to see limited or even negative near‑term returns, reflecting Oracle’s sharp prior rally and elevated volatility. ^[37]
• Fundamental analysts (sell‑side houses) remain materially more optimistic, with average 12‑month targets well above current prices, effectively projecting strong gains by late 2026 if Oracle executes its AI roadmap. ^[38]

This divergence is one reason ORCL has become a battleground stock: the chart and credit metrics look scary; the backlog and growth guidance look exceptional.

5. Key Drivers of Oracle’s Stock Price in 2026

Whether Oracle ends 2026 near the bullish, base, or bearish side of the forecast spectrum will depend on a few core themes.

5.1 AI infrastructure and backlog conversion

Oracle’s Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO) are the backbone of the bull case:

• RPO hit $138 billion by the end of FY2025, up 41% year over year, with cloud backlog growing even faster. ^[39]
• A TradingNews analysis claims Oracle’s broader AI and hyperscaler backlog (including newly signed mega‑deals) has ballooned toward $455 billion, with management expecting it to surpass $500 billion as new capacity comes online through 2026. ^[40]

If Oracle can:

1. Build data centers fast enough to service these contracts, and
2. Convert backlog into high‑margin recurring revenue without major delays or cancellations,

then the bullish analyst targets start to look more realistic.

5.2 Profitability and AI capex discipline

The counterpoint is that AI infrastructure is incredibly capital‑intensive:

• Oracle’s capex jumped above $21 billion in FY2025 and is expected to exceed $25 billion in FY2026, mostly for GPU‑rich data‑center infrastructure. ^[41]
• Fitch, Moody’s and S&P rate Oracle’s debt in the BBB/Baa range, with Outlooks ranging from negative to stable, reflecting concerns about leverage until AI contracts fully ramp. ^[42]

Credit markets more broadly are worried that the AI build‑out resembles a “one‑way ride on the AI big dipper,” with tech giants collectively issuing hundreds of billions in debt to fund data‑center expansion. ^[43]

For Oracle specifically, 2026 will be judged on:

• How quickly OCI margins improve as utilization rises.
• Whether free cash flow turns decisively positive again despite high depreciation.
• Whether rating agencies become more comfortable rather than more negative on its balance sheet.

5.3 Competitive and deal‑specific risk

Oracle’s AI future is deeply intertwined with:

• OpenAI and other hyperscalers (Meta, xAI, etc.).
• Being able to differentiate OCI versus AWS, Azure, and Google Cloud.

Recent commentary has flagged some potential risks:

• A Barron’s article on “3 Ways Oracle’s OpenAI Deal Could Play Out (Only 1 Looks Good for the Stock)” highlights that Oracle’s heavy dependence on a few mega‑customers may introduce concentration risk. ^[44]
• Forbes and others have questioned how low the stock could go if cloud profit margins disappoint or AI capex overruns persist. ^[45]
• The Motley Fool has argued that Oracle might be the riskiest AI stock in the current boom because of its combination of leverage, valuation, and execution risk. ^[46]

5.4 Macro environment: interest rates and the AI capex cycle

Oracle’s valuation and borrowing costs will also depend heavily on the macro backdrop:

• AI data‑center spending is projected to reach over $600 billion in 2026, up sharply from 2025, according to estimates cited by Reuters. ^[47]
• TradingNews notes that expected Fed rate cuts in 2026 could give Oracle breathing room to refinance debt and benefit from operating leverage as cash flows catch up with investments. ^[48]

If rates stay higher for longer or if AI capex slows dramatically, multiples on high‑growth, heavily invested names like Oracle could compress further — even if revenues keep rising.

6. Oracle Stock Price Scenarios for 2026

Because no single forecast is “the” answer, it’s helpful to think in scenarios, anchored to current data rather than guesswork.

These are illustrative ranges, not guarantees, and they synthesize analyst targets, quant models, and Oracle’s own guidance as of late 2025.

Bull case: 2026 ends in the $350–$430 range

What would need to go right?

• OCI growth tracks or beats guidance (70%+), and cloud revenue growth stays above 40%. ^[49]
• Backlog conversion is smooth; the largest AI and hyperscaler contracts ramp without major hiccups. ^[50]
• Capex intensity begins to moderate, boosting free cash flow, and rating agencies grow more comfortable with Oracle’s leverage trajectory. ^[51]
• The macro environment cooperates: AI spending remains strong, and interest rates edge lower.

In this scenario, ORCL could reasonably test the upper end of current analyst target ranges:

• Several platforms already show high targets near $410–$430, and median targets around $350–$355. ^[52]

If Oracle convincingly demonstrates that it’s on track for its 2030 revenue and OCI goals, a late‑2026 price somewhere between $350 and $430 is within the bounds of current bullish forecasts.

Base case: 2026 ends in the $250–$320 range

Here, Oracle executes reasonably well but doesn’t fully silence the skeptics:

• Revenue and cloud growth land near guidance but margins remain pressured by ongoing capex and depreciation. ^[53]
• Backlog grows, but investors remain cautious about customer concentration and long‑term profitability.
• Debt levels are stable or improving slowly, but not enough to eliminate all credit worries.

This range is consistent with:

• More conservative analyst targets in the $220–$300 area (e.g., Jefferies’ $270, Stifel’s $250) plus some discount to the current mid‑$300 consensus while uncertainty unwinds. ^[54]
• LongForecast’s projection of Oracle in the $240–$260 zone by late 2026, combined with a modest re‑rating if investors warm slightly to the story. ^[55]

In this base case, ORCL would still deliver solid gains from today’s ~$200 price, but fall short of the most optimistic Street expectations.

Bear case: 2026 ends in the $150–$220 range

In the bear scenario, several things break against Oracle:

• AI infrastructure spending slows or becomes more competitive, pressuring prices and utilization. ^[56]
• Major contracts ramp more slowly than anticipated, or hyperscaler customers shift demand elsewhere. ^[57]
• Interest rates stay higher for longer, keeping debt service costs elevated and hurting valuation multiples, especially for highly leveraged tech. ^[58]
• Credit markets become more nervous, giving more weight to bearish voices like Morgan Stanley’s “short Oracle” thesis and Redburn’s $175 target. ^[59]

On the modeling side:

• CoinCodex’s near‑term forecast around $171 average for 2026 and $183 one‑year target aligns with a world where Oracle trades sideways or lower for a time. ^[60]
• The low end of analyst targets (around $130–$175) becomes more plausible if AI expectations reset. ^[61]

In this scenario, ORCL might finish 2026 somewhere between $150 and $220, with the stock effectively “digesting” its AI spending spree under a cloud of macro and credit worries.

7. What Could Change the 2026 Oracle Forecast?

The ranges above are not fixed. Key catalysts that could push ORCL above or below current expectations include:

Upside catalysts

• Faster RPO conversion: If Oracle can turn its gigantic backlog into recognized revenue more quickly than expected, the Street may raise FY2027–2028 estimates and targets. ^[62]
• Margin upside: Evidence that OCI can approach AWS‑style margins over time could justify P/E multiples at or above current consensus. ^[63]
• Favorable macro: Earlier‑than‑expected rate cuts or a renewed AI investment boom would support higher valuations across cloud and AI infrastructure names. ^[64]

Downside catalysts

• Contract risk: Any high‑profile renegotiation, cancellation, or delay related to OpenAI, Meta, or other mega‑deals would hit both sentiment and long‑term forecasts. ^[65]
• Execution missteps: Prolonged supply constraints, cost overruns, or major outages in OCI could damage Oracle’s positioning in the AI infrastructure race. ^[66]
• Macro shock or AI bubble burst: If broader markets re‑rate AI stocks sharply lower on valuation concerns, Oracle’s leveraged balance sheet could amplify the downside. ^[67]

8. How to Use a 2026 Oracle Stock Forecast

Putting everything together:

• Consensus sell‑side view: ORCL should be meaningfully higher by late 2026, with an average target in the mid‑$300s and upside scenarios reaching into the $400s. ^[68]
• Quant/technical view: Expect volatility and possible drawdowns, with some models forecasting flat or negative returns in the next year before longer‑term gains. ^[69]
• Risk reality: Oracle’s AI + cloud story is powerful, but it comes with unusual leverage and capex risk for a mega‑cap tech stock.

For investors and readers, the 2026 Oracle stock forecast is less about a single magic number and more about:

• Understanding how AI infrastructure, backlog growth, and cloud profitability may reshape Oracle over the next few years.
• Weighing the reward implied by bullish targets (mid‑$300s and up) against the risks highlighted by credit analysts and bearish commentators.
• Recognizing that forecasts are based on today’s information — and will evolve quickly as Oracle reports new earnings, signs new deals, or adjusts its capex plans.

Again, this article is not a recommendation to buy or sell ORCL. It’s a map of the current forecasting landscape so you can better interpret headlines, analyst notes, and your own thesis about where Oracle stock might trade by the end of 2026.

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