Palantir (PLTR) Stock Forecast: Nvidia Deal, Rodeo AI and ICE Furor on December 6, 2025

Palantir Technologies (NASDAQ: PLTR) is ending the week as one of the most hotly debated AI stocks on Wall Street. The share price is hovering around $181.76, up about 2% on the day and sitting not far below its recent 52‑week high of $207.52, giving the data analytics and AI specialist a market capitalization of roughly $430 billion. ^[1] After a year of explosive revenue growth, blockbuster government and commercial wins, and a deepening partnership with Nvidia, the company now faces a new wave of bullish forecasts, skeptical analyst targets, and political blowback from a controversial immigration contract.

Below is a detailed look at the latest news, forecasts and analysis around PLTR stock as of December 6, 2025.

Where Palantir Stock Stands Today

According to MarketBeat’s latest snapshot, Palantir opened Friday at $181.76, within a 12‑month trading range of $63.40 to $207.52. At these levels the stock trades at about 433 times trailing earnings and carries a PEG ratio (price/earnings to growth) near 6.9, underscoring just how much future growth investors are already pricing in. ^[2]

Finbold notes that Palantir shares are up roughly 141% year‑to‑date, and more than 400% over the past twelve months, making it one of the most dramatic stories in the S&P 500 this year. ^[3] Fortune has described Palantir as both the best and worst-performing stock in the index in 2025: at one point the stock had climbed about 144% before selling off sharply over six consecutive sessions amid rising concerns about an “AI bubble” and short-seller attacks. ^[4]

Volatility is the rule rather than the exception here, and today’s news cycle only amplifies that.

New AI Infrastructure Platform: “Chain Reaction” with Nvidia and CenterPoint

One of the biggest recent catalysts for Palantir is its move into AI infrastructure.

On December 4, Reuters reported that Palantir, Nvidia and CenterPoint Energy are jointly developing a software platform called “Chain Reaction” to accelerate the development of power‑hungry AI data centers. ^[5]

Shortly after, a Palantir press release described Chain Reaction as an “operating system for American AI infrastructure” designed to: ^[6]

Turn aging power generation assets into high‑uptime resources suitable for AI workloads
Stabilize and expand the grid to handle surging data‑center demand
Speed up permitting, supply‑chain coordination and construction for new generation, transmission and compute capacity
Provide a repeatable blueprint for future hyperscale AI data centers

The platform aims to ingest messy, unstructured data — including emails and documents from utilities, regulators, contractors and chip suppliers — and use AI to anticipate bottlenecks before they derail multi‑billion‑dollar projects. ^[7]

From an investment angle, Chain Reaction does a few important things:

Deepens the Nvidia alliance and ties Palantir’s software story to the physical build‑out of AI infrastructure, not just to abstract “software licenses.”
Pushes Palantir deeper into the energy and utilities space, a sector with long contracts and high switching costs.
Positions the company as a potential coordinator of the AI power ecosystem, a role that could support premium pricing if the product gains traction.

However, the company has not yet disclosed detailed revenue expectations or margins for Chain Reaction. For now, it is primarily a narrative catalyst that reinforces Palantir’s ambition to be infrastructure‑grade, not just dashboard software.

Edge AI in the Arena: Teton Ridge Rodeo Partnership

If Chain Reaction is about enormous data centers, Palantir’s second big December headline is about cowboys and cameras.

On December 5, Palantir announced a new effort with TWG AI and Teton Ridge, a Western sports and entertainment company backed by TWG Global, to bring real‑time AI and computer vision to rodeo events, in collaboration with Nvidia. ^[8]

According to the Business Wire and Nasdaq releases, the partnership will: ^[9]

Use Palantir’s AI software to analyze live performance data from athletes and animals
Provide instant insights for training, safety, officiating and strategy
Enhance broadcasts and fan engagement with richer real‑time analytics
Run much of this intelligence at the edge (on‑site), leaning on Nvidia’s AI infrastructure

Investing.com notes that Palantir has generated nearly $3.9 billion in revenue over the last twelve months, with growth above 47%, and sees the Teton Ridge deal as evidence that the company is extending its AI capabilities well beyond traditional government and industrial customers. ^[10]

Commercially, this is unlikely to move the top line as much as a defense or energy contract, but it is strategically important:

It showcases Palantir AIP (Artificial Intelligence Platform) in a consumer‑facing, media‑heavy vertical, useful for brand and use‑case diversification.
It strengthens the Palantir–Nvidia–TWG AI triangle, reinforcing the idea that Palantir is becoming a default AI operating system for a growing number of partners.

Wall Street’s Latest Calls: From “Golden Path” to Cautious Hold

Wedbush’s Trillion‑Dollar “Golden Path”

In a widely circulated note summarized by TheStreet and GuruFocus, a Wedbush team led by Dan Ives reiterated an “Outperform” rating on Palantir and set a $230 price target. ^[11]

Wedbush reported that at a recent customer event, many prospective clients were surprised by the breadth of Palantir’s AI use cases and by the word‑of‑mouth enthusiasm coming from existing customers. The analysts highlighted:

A roughly 50/50 split between new customers and existing clients increasing their spend
Strong momentum for the company’s platform‑wide approach, rather than one‑off deployments
The view that Palantir has a “golden path” to a $1 trillion market cap over the coming years if AI adoption and platform penetration continue at current pace ^[12]

TheStreet columnist Stephen Guilfoyle, who is long PLTR himself, backed up the bullish stance with a personal price target of $215. ^[13]

Consensus Still Says “Hold”

Not every analyst shares that enthusiasm.

MarketBeat’s latest round‑up of research notes shows a flurry of target hikes in November:

CICC Research raised its target from $128 to $150 with a neutral rating.
Piper Sandler increased its target from $201 to $225 and rates the stock overweight.
DA Davidson lifted its target from $170 to $215 with a neutral stance.
Jefferies reiterated an underperform rating. ^[14]

Across the coverage universe, MarketBeat counts 4 Buy, 18 Hold and 2 Sell ratings, with an average 12‑month target of about $172.28 — implying roughly 5% downside from current levels. ^[15]

StockAnalysis shows a very similar picture: 19 analysts, a consensus rating of “Hold”, and an average target around $171.74, again implying modest downside versus today’s price. ^[16] Price targets range from $50 on the low end to $255 at the high end, illustrating how polarizing the stock has become.

Fresh Institutional Buying

On the institutional side, a new SEC filing highlighted by MarketBeat shows that Clear Street LLC purchased 2,167,755 shares of Palantir during the second quarter, a position worth roughly $295.5 million at the time of the filing. Palantir now accounts for about 1.2% of Clear Street’s holdings, making it the firm’s fourth‑largest position; Clear Street owns about 0.09% of Palantir’s outstanding shares. ^[17]

Several smaller firms have also opened new positions, and MarketBeat estimates about 45.65% of the float is held by hedge funds and other institutional investors, signaling robust professional interest despite valuation concerns. ^[18]

AI Models Are Bullish Too: ChatGPT‑Style Forecasts

In a meta twist, financial site Finbold asked an AI model (OpenAI’s ChatGPT) to forecast where Palantir’s stock might trade by December 31, 2025. Based on a probability‑weighted blend of scenarios, the model projected a year‑end price around $225 per share — suggesting further upside from current levels. ^[19]

Finbold breaks the AI‑generated outlook into three bands: ^[20]

Base case: $205–$235, assuming 40–60% revenue growth, continued strength in government and commercial AI contracts, and gradual margin expansion.
Bull case: $260–$310, requiring faster‑than‑expected enterprise AI adoption, multiple large contract wins, and particularly strong contributions from Nvidia‑linked collaborations such as Chain Reaction.
Bear case: $140–$170, reflecting risks of a sharp valuation reset, weaker AI budgets in 2026, slower commercial deal flow, or a broader rotation out of high‑multiple tech stocks.

The AI forecast roughly lines up with the more optimistic human analysts (for example, Piper Sandler at $225 and Wedbush at $230) but sits well above the ~$172 consensus target. ^[21]

Crucially, these kinds of AI‑driven predictions are scenario narratives, not guarantees. They are based on assumptions that can easily be derailed by macro shocks, regulatory changes or competitive threats.

Q3 2025: “Otherworldly” Growth and a Commercial “Juggernaut”

All of this forecasting rests on the same core reality: Palantir just delivered one of the strongest quarters in its history.

For Q3 2025, Palantir reported: ^[22]

Revenue of about $1.18 billion, up ~63% year‑over‑year, and ahead of consensus estimates around $1.09 billion.
Adjusted EPS of $0.21, compared with $0.10 a year earlier, beating forecasts in the $0.15–$0.17 range by more than 20%.
GAAP EPS of $0.18, confirming that profitability is no longer just an adjusted‑metric story.
Net income of roughly $475.6 million, up more than 230% year‑over‑year.
Adjusted operating margin around 51%, a record high, and GAAP operating margin near 33%.

Segment details were particularly striking:

U.S. revenue grew 77% year‑over‑year to about $883 million.
Within that, U.S. commercial revenue surged 121% to roughly $397 million, outpacing U.S. government revenue, which rose about 52% to $486 million. ^[23]
A Q3 investor presentation pointed to +65% year‑over‑year growth in U.S. commercial customer count and nearly +200% growth in remaining deal value for that segment, underscoring just how quickly the commercial engine is scaling. ^[24]

Palantir ended the quarter with about $2.6 billion in remaining performance obligations (RPO), roughly 44% of which is expected to be recognized over the next 12 months — giving decent visibility into near‑term revenue. ^[25]

On the guidance front, the company raised its full‑year 2025 revenue outlook for the third time this year, now targeting roughly $4.396–$4.4 billion, up from earlier projections near $4.15 billion. ^[26] CEO Alex Karp described the AI‑driven expansion — especially in U.S. commercial — as “otherworldly” and called that segment an “absolute juggernaut.” ^[27]

Looking ahead, S&P Global’s summary of Visible Alpha consensus estimates points to Q4 2025 revenue around $1.3 billion, implying growth of roughly 62% year‑over‑year. Analysts expect commercial revenue to jump about 75% to $653 million, outpacing an estimated 51% increase in government revenue to $688 million. That trajectory suggests the commercial segment could become Palantir’s main revenue driver by 2027 if trends hold. ^[28]

Political and Ethical Risk: The ICE “Immigration OS” Controversy

The bullish numbers sit alongside a growing reputational and political shadow.

On December 3, The Washington Post reported that Palantir has become a key technology provider for U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) under a new, roughly $60 million contract, awarded without open bidding under a national‑security urgency exemption. ^[29]

The article describes how Palantir’s new “Immigration OS” data platform helps track undocumented immigrants and streamline deportation operations, significantly expanding the company’s role in enforcement activities compared with earlier, more limited contracts. The report also notes: ^[30]

Internal dissent and some employee resignations over the deal
Concerns from civil‑liberties advocates about surveillance and due‑process implications
Revisions to Palantir’s code of conduct, reportedly removing prior language about bias and protections for vulnerable groups
A broader ideological shift as CEO Alex Karp aligns more publicly with hawkish Republican positions on immigration and national security

Palantir and ICE have declined to provide detailed information about how data is used or what guardrails exist. Critics argue that the company is enabling authoritarian practices; Karp argues he is redefining “progressive values” in light of national‑security threats. ^[31]

On CNBC’s “Mad Money,” Jim Cramer referenced this Washington Post story while opining on PLTR. Asked by a caller whether to hold or sell, he called Palantir a “high‑quality” name doing “incredible work” and said he believes the stock is going higher, while advising investors to “keep politics out” of their decision if their goal is to make money. ^[32]

For investors, the ICE episode matters not just ethically but financially:

It may attract greater regulatory and political scrutiny, including the possibility of contract changes under a different administration.
It could affect Palantir’s ability to recruit or retain certain talent and customers, especially in Europe or among more socially constrained institutions.
It contributes to the headline‑risk premium embedded in the stock.

Valuation Tug‑of‑War: Bubble or Justified Premium?

On standard metrics, Palantir is expensive.

MarketBeat puts the stock at a trailing P/E ratio above 430 and a PEG near 6.9, metrics that rely on very high expectations for sustained growth and margin expansion. ^[33] Reddit‑based analysis from the retail investor community has reached similar conclusions, noting that even with rapidly rising earnings, Palantir trades at a valuation multiple well above most large‑cap software peers. ^[34]

That backdrop has made Palantir a central character in the broader AI boom‑and‑bubble debate:

Fortune magazine chronicled how Palantir went from the best to the worst performer in the S&P 500 over part of 2025 as the stock whipsawed with changing sentiment around AI and a high‑profile short‑seller campaign by Citron Research’s Andrew Left. ^[35]
Another Fortune piece highlighted Michael Burry’s roughly $1.1 billion short position against AI‑linked stocks, which coincided with a sharp sell‑off in the Nasdaq 100 and pressured high‑multiple names like Palantir. ^[36]

At the same time, Q3 results show revenue growth, profitability and cash generation improving fast enough that some bulls argue Palantir is “growing into” its valuation. If the company sustains 40–60% annual revenue growth, maintains 30–50% operating margins and continues to expand its addressable market through initiatives like Chain Reaction and Teton Ridge, the current multiple could look less extreme in hindsight.

The bear case is simple: any slowdown in AI spending, a disappointing quarter, a major contract loss, tighter regulation, or a broader de‑rating of growth stocks could compress the multiple quickly, leaving long‑term holders with heavy drawdowns even if fundamentals remain solid.

What to Watch Next for PLTR

For traders and long‑term investors tracking Palantir after December 6, several catalysts stand out:

Execution on Chain Reaction
- Concrete customer wins, disclosed pricing models, and early revenue contributions will determine whether this is a headline‑only story or a material new business line. ^[37]
Monetization of Teton Ridge and Other Edge‑AI Deals
- The real test will be how Palantir packages and scales similar AI deployments in sports, media, and live events, possibly turning them into repeatable vertical solutions. ^[38]
Q4 2025 Earnings and 2026 Guidance
- With consensus looking for ~62% revenue growth and continued margin strength, any surprise — positive or negative — could trigger an outsized move given the valuation. ^[39]
Regulatory and Political Developments Around ICE and Other Government Contracts
- Congressional scrutiny, lawsuits, or policy shifts affecting surveillance and immigration enforcement could materially change Palantir’s risk profile. ^[40]
Macro AI Sentiment
- Broader sentiment swings in AI — from euphoric to skeptical — will continue to influence Palantir much more than traditional valuation models alone, especially as high‑profile investors place big directional bets for and against AI stocks. ^[41]

Bottom Line

As of December 6, 2025, Palantir sits at the crossroads of three powerful forces:

Fundamental strength, with Q3 revenue up more than 60% and profitability inflecting sharply higher;
Hyper‑bullish narratives, from Wedbush’s trillion‑dollar “golden path” and AI‑generated price targets around $225, to high‑profile media coverage of the Nvidia and Teton Ridge partnerships;
Ethical, political and valuation risks, ranging from the ICE deportation controversy to a P/E ratio north of 400 in a market increasingly wary of AI froth.

For now, Wall Street’s average target suggests slight downside from today’s price, even as some of the loudest voices see substantial upside. Whether PLTR ultimately justifies its premium will depend not only on how well it executes technologically, but also on how society and regulators decide to govern the kind of power its software enables.