Palantir Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ: PLTR) heads into Monday’s U.S. session trading just below record territory. The stock closed on Friday, December 5, at $181.76, up about 2.2% on the day, and sits roughly 12% below its 52‑week high of $207.52. Over the last year Palantir shares have surged about 156%, with year‑to‑date gains around 140%, making it one of 2025’s hottest large‑cap AI stocks. [1]
At that price, Palantir is valued at roughly $433 billion, trading at a trailing P/E over 400, a forward P/E above 200, and an estimated price‑to‑sales ratio above 100—levels that have turned the name into a lightning rod in the AI bubble debate. [2]
Below is a deep dive into everything investors should know before the market opens on Monday, December 8, 2025: earnings, new contracts, valuation, institutional flows, controversy, and what the latest forecasts say about Palantir stock.
Palantir stock now: price, performance and key stats
- Last close (Dec 5, 2025): $181.76
- 52‑week range: $63.40 – $207.52 (shares are ~12% below the high) [3]
- Market cap: ≈ $433.2 billion [4]
- Valuation multiples (approx.):
- Trailing P/E: ~430
- Forward P/E: ~217
- PEG (5‑yr expected): ~3.6
- P/S: ≈118; EV/Sales ≈110
- P/FCF: ≈240 [5]
- Performance:
- Year‑to‑date: +140%
- 12‑month: +156%
- 3‑year: +2,300%+ (driven by the launch of its AI platform AIP in 2023) [6]
- Short interest: About 51 million shares, roughly 2.3–2.5% of free float, with a days‑to‑cover ratio under 1, and very low borrow fees (~0.3–0.4%), suggesting limited “short squeeze” risk. [7]
- Employees: Around 3,900 staff as of early December 2025—lean for a company of its market value. [8]
Options markets are pricing in elevated but not extreme volatility, with implied volatility on PLTR options around the mid‑40% range as of December 5. [9]
Technical models at StockInvest.us project a “fair” opening price near $180.35 on Monday, with an expected intraday range between roughly $177.6 and $185.9 based on recent volatility, and classify PLTR as a short‑term “buy candidate” despite limited risk/reward at current resistance. [10]
Inside Palantir’s record Q3 2025: “otherworldly” AI demand
Palantir’s current valuation is anchored in a genuinely explosive set of recent fundamentals.
For Q3 2025 (reported November 3), Palantir posted its strongest quarter ever: [11]
- Revenue: $1.181 billion, up 63% year over year and 18% quarter over quarter, comfortably ahead of ~ $1.09 billion consensus.
- U.S. revenue: $883 million, up 77% YoY.
- U.S. commercial revenue: Up 121% YoY to about $397 million, reflecting accelerating uptake of its Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP) by private‑sector customers.
- U.S. government revenue: Up 52% YoY to about $486 million.
- GAAP EPS: $0.18; adjusted EPS: $0.21, beating expectations of $0.17. [12]
- Profitability: Palantir reported a GAAP operating margin around the low‑30s and an adjusted operating margin above 50%, with trailing‑12‑month free cash flow near $1.8 billion and a free‑cash‑flow margin around 47%. [13]
Management raised full‑year 2025 revenue guidance for the third straight quarter, now targeting roughly $4.40 billion in revenue, implying about 53% growth versus 2024, up from prior guidance in the mid‑40% range. [14]
CEO Alex Karp has described demand for Palantir’s AI software as “otherworldly” and characterized the U.S. commercial business as a “juggernaut,” highlighting AIP as the central growth engine. [15]
In an article published today, 24/7 Wall St. reiterated that Q3’s 63% revenue growth, 121% U.S. commercial growth and high margins “crushed” expectations, grouping Palantir with leading AI winners alongside UiPath. [16]
New AI and defense deals: Army megacontract, Nvidia tie‑up and more
A second pillar of the bull case is Palantir’s expanding portfolio of government, defense and AI‑infrastructure deals.
U.S. Army: up to $10 billion over 10 years
On July 31, 2025, the U.S. Army announced an Enterprise Agreement with Palantir that consolidates 75 separate contracts into a single framework and allows the Army and other Department of Defense agencies to buy Palantir software over up to 10 years with a contract ceiling of $10 billion. [17]
Crucially, that $10 billion is a cap, not guaranteed revenue, but it gives Palantir a long runway of potential demand as the Army standardizes on its platforms for data integration, analytics, and AI‑driven decision support.
Chain Reaction with Nvidia and CenterPoint: AI for data center build‑out
On December 4, Reuters reported that Palantir, Nvidia and U.S. utility CenterPoint Energy are launching “Chain Reaction,” a new software platform designed to speed up the construction of AI data centers, which can consume as much power as a small city. [18]
The product aims to use AI to coordinate permitting, supply chains and construction logistics across chip manufacturers, utilities and data center developers—effectively applying Palantir’s logistics and AI expertise to one of the most capital‑intensive parts of the AI economy.
While financial details weren’t disclosed, the initiative:
- Deepens Palantir’s strategic partnership with Nvidia,
- Positions Palantir at the heart of the physical AI infrastructure build‑out, and
- Potentially creates a new high‑value vertical beyond classic defense and enterprise analytics. [19]
Global defense and security footprint
A recent 24/7 Wall St. deep‑dive highlighted additional major deals: a £1.5 billion U.K. defense contract, NATO deployments, and a reported $30 million contract with U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) for deportation‑related systems. [20]
Separately, U.S. Army public documents confirm that the Army enterprise agreement alone consolidates dozens of prior contracts and allows for volume‑based discounts over a decade. [21]
FedScoop reporting underscores a broader trend: federal spending on Palantir has been rising across agencies including the State Department, IRS, NASA, NIH and others, even as some officials worry about vendor lock‑in and cost. [22]
The valuation fight: “golden path” or AI bubble?
With PLTR now trading at 400+ times trailing earnings and well over 100 times sales, valuations are front and center.
The bullish take: cash flow and long runway
A new Motley Fool piece (“Think Palantir Stock Is Expensive? This 1 Chart Might Change Your Mind”) argues that focusing solely on earnings misses the story: Palantir’s free‑cash‑flow margin around 47% and roughly $1.8 billion in annual FCF puts it in the same profitability league as elite software companies, despite still‑accelerating growth. [23]
Another recent analysis on Seeking Alpha titled “Palantir: 230+ P/E Is Not A Problem” notes that with FY 2025 EPS estimates around $0.72 and a market cap near $401 billion, the forward P/E around 230 only looks untenable if growth slows sharply. Bulls argue that if Palantir can sustain 40–50%+ revenue growth and high margins for several years, today’s multiples will compress naturally. [24]
Some Street research has gone further. A recent piece on TheStreet cited an analyst’s “golden path” to a $1 trillion valuation, based on Palantir securing a dominant position as the operating system for AI‑driven enterprises and Western defense. [25]
The bearish take: bubble risk and concentration
Other commentators are far more cautious:
- A Motley Fool article from December 5 labeled Palantir “one artificial intelligence stock to avoid at all costs,” arguing its valuation leaves little margin for error relative to other AI names. [26]
- 24/7 Wall St.’s 12‑month price target of $107 implies about 37% downside, even while acknowledging Palantir’s strong growth and government ties. [27]
- Finviz data shows PLTR trading with a price‑to‑free‑cash‑flow above 240 and EV/Sales over 100, making it one of the most richly valued large‑cap software stocks in the market. [28]
- A Fortune feature highlighted Michael Burry (of “The Big Short”) taking bearish options positions on Palantir and Nvidia, alongside public warnings about an AI bubble. [29]
MarketBeat’s aggregation of Wall Street ratings shows 4 buys, 18 holds and 2 sells, with an average price target around $172, below Friday’s close, even after several banks raised targets into the $190–$210 range. [30]
In short, the Street is impressed by the fundamentals but uneasy about the price.
What big money is doing: institutions, insiders, shorts and prediction markets
Institutions: aggressive buying and profit‑taking
Institutional positioning is mixed:
- Federated Hermes Inc. boosted its Palantir stake by 69% in Q2, to about 4.61 million shares, now its 7th‑largest holding (~1.2% of its portfolio), worth roughly $629 million as of the last filing. [31]
- Cerity Partners LLC recently increased its PLTR stake by 4.4% to 774,507 shares, valued around $102.6 million. [32]
- Other funds—including Federated Hermes, Jump Financial and several smaller managers—have added exposure, while overall institutional ownership sits near 45–46%. [33]
But 24/7 Wall St. notes that some “smart money” has taken profits, citing JPMorgan and T. Rowe Price as examples of large holders that cut positions in recent months. [34]
A CoinCentral report adds that billionaire Ken Griffin trimmed his Palantir stake by about 32% in Q3, partly reflecting worries about a forward P/E in the 160s+ range. [35]
Insiders: heavy selling into strength
MarketBeat data shows intensive insider selling over the last quarter:
- An insider sale of 36,048 shares at roughly $162 per share,
- Another of 308,635 shares around $164,
- Plus additional transactions from directors and executives.
In total, insiders have sold about 1.03 million shares worth roughly $168 million in the past 90 days, though they still own about 9.23% of the company. [36]
Insider selling in a momentum stock doesn’t automatically signal a top, but it does underline how fully valued some executives may see the shares in the near term.
Shorts, options and betting markets
- Short interest remains modest at roughly 2.4% of float, with sub‑1‑day days‑to‑cover and ultra‑low borrow costs, so there is no major short squeeze dynamic. [37]
- Options activity is heavy—over 400,000 contracts in recent sessions, with implied volatility in the mid‑40s, signaling expectations of sizable, but not extreme, price swings. [38]
- Prediction‑market site Polymarket even hosts a contract on whether PLTR closes up or down on Monday, December 8, showing how closely traders are watching each daily move. [39]
Politics, ethics and regulatory risk: Palantir’s controversial side
Beyond numbers, Palantir carries pronounced ESG and reputational risk, which can influence long‑term investor appetite.
ICE deportations and Immigration OS
A December 3 Washington Post investigation detailed how Palantir has shifted from avoiding direct involvement in immigration enforcement to building “Immigration OS,” a system that plays a key role in ICE deportation workflows. [40]
Key points:
- Palantir had previously stated it would not directly support ICE’s deportation arm due to human‑rights concerns, limiting work to investigative divisions. [41]
- The new platform has drawn criticism from civil‑liberties groups and even former employees, who accuse the company of “normalizing authoritarianism” in U.S. immigration enforcement. [42]
- Around the same time, Palantir edited its internal code of conduct, softening language about avoiding biased decisions and changing how it describes its commitment to protecting vulnerable groups. [43]
Another Washington Post explainer on December 4 emphasized Palantir’s central role in U.S. government surveillance and national‑security operations, noting that the company has received roughly $1.6 billion in Defense Department revenue since 2008 and also works with agencies such as the IRS, State Department, DHS and foreign governments. [44]
Cost and vendor lock‑in concerns
FedScoop’s reporting highlights a growing reliance on Palantir across civilian agencies, but also notes that some, like the FDA and FAA, have tried to reduce or exit Palantir deployments due to high costs and the risk of dependency on a single vendor. [45]
For investors, these stories underline that Palantir’s government moat is both a strength and a political lightning rod. Policy changes, public backlash or budget pressures could affect contract renewals over time.
Culture and talent: Karp’s “Meritocracy Fellowship”
On December 6, Investopedia profiled Palantir’s new “Meritocracy Fellowship,” a paid pathway that recruits 22 high‑school graduates and pays them about $5,400 per month for four months to skip college in favor of intensive training and potential engineering roles at the company. [46]
- Fellows attend seminars on Western civilization, American history and political philosophy, reflecting Palantir’s mission‑driven branding around “defending the West.” [47]
- CEO Alex Karp has publicly argued that U.S. universities are “broken” and reward conformity over originality, and that degrees matter far less at Palantir than performance. [48]
The fellowship is small relative to Palantir’s ~3,900 employees, but it signals:
- A push to control its own talent pipeline,
- A very distinct cultural identity that appeals strongly to some candidates and repels others, and
- A PR strategy that keeps Palantir in the broader public debate about education, work and the role of tech in “defending the West.” [49]
Palantir stock forecast 2025: analysts, algorithms and AI models
Wall Street price targets
Depending on the data provider, consensus 12‑month price targets cluster not far from today’s price but span an enormous range:
- MarketBeat’s aggregation: average target ≈ $172, high around $210, low around $50; rating mix 4 Buy / 18 Hold / 2 Sell. [50]
- 24/7 Wall St. cites a similar consensus but emphasizes the wide spread from $50 on the low end to roughly $255 on the high end, reflecting deep disagreement over Palantir’s long‑term earnings power. [51]
Overall, Wall Street’s official stance is “Hold” with a slightly negative skew versus current prices.
Quant forecasts and technical models
Recent third‑party models show how split quantitative views are:
- StockInvest.us projects Monday’s fair open near $180.35 and a normal intraday range from about $177.6 to $185.9, and labels PLTR a short‑term “buy candidate” based on trend and momentum indicators. [52]
- A Finbold/ChatGPT‑based scenario analysis from December 6 generated three paths for year‑end 2025:
- Bear case: ~$140–$170
- Base case: ~$205–$235
- Bull case: ~$260–$310
Weighted across scenarios, the model’s “expected” price was about $225, implying upside from current levels but with significant volatility. [53]
- 24/7 Wall St.’s in‑house discounted‑cash‑flow model produced a 12‑month target of $107, assuming revenue grows from $3.9 billion in 2025 to $11.9 billion by 2030, but that competition and lower AI software pricing compress margins. [54]
These projections are highly speculative and rest on assumptions about AI adoption, contract wins, margins and interest rates. None should be treated as a guarantee.
What to watch at the open on December 8, 2025
Heading into Monday’s session, here are the key things PLTR traders and longer‑term investors may focus on:
1. Can Palantir hold above its short‑term support?
- Friday’s close at $181.76 sits just below near‑term resistance around $182–$183 and comfortably above notable support zones near $175 and $170, based on volume and Fibonacci levels. [55]
- Holding above the 50‑day moving average (~$179) would support the bullish trend narrative; a decisive break below roughly $175 could invite deeper profit‑taking after a huge 2025 run. [56]
2. Market reaction to weekend headlines
Over the last week and the weekend, investors have seen a flood of fresh coverage:
- Bullish pieces highlighting 63% revenue growth, 121% U.S. commercial growth and 50%+ adjusted operating margins. [57]
- Critical views warning that Palantir is among the most expensive AI stocks, with some calling it a stock to avoid at current levels. [58]
- New data on institutional buying (Federated Hermes, Cerity Partners) versus insider selling and billionaire profit‑taking (Ken Griffin, JPMorgan, T. Rowe Price). [59]
How pre‑market and early‑session trading interprets this mix—“AI juggernaut” versus “AI bubble poster child”—will likely drive the opening move.
3. Macro and sector sentiment
Palantir has traded as a high‑beta AI leader. On days when:
- Big banks warn about market pullbacks or tech bubbles, PLTR has been among the hardest hit. [60]
- AI optimism surges, blowout AI earnings elsewhere have often pulled Palantir higher even absent company‑specific news. [61]
Monday’s open will therefore depend not just on Palantir headlines, but also on broader tech and AI sentiment, rates expectations and any fresh macro news.
4. Looking ahead: next catalysts
Investors watching beyond Monday’s opening bell should keep an eye on:
- Next earnings date: Currently expected around February 2, 2026. [62]
- Updates on Chain Reaction and other AI infrastructure projects with Nvidia, CenterPoint and potential new partners. [63]
- New or expanded government and defense contracts, including follow‑on work from the Army enterprise agreement and civilian agencies’ modernization efforts. [64]
- Regulatory and political developments, particularly around immigration enforcement, surveillance, AI ethics and government procurement rules. [65]
Bottom line: Palantir before the bell
Going into the December 8, 2025 open, Palantir stock sits at the intersection of:
- Outstanding fundamentals: record Q3, rapid commercial AI growth, strong margins and upgraded full‑year guidance. [66]
- Massive expectations: valuations that price in years of high‑double‑digit growth and continued dominance in AI software for governments and enterprises. [67]
- Powerful but polarized sentiment: institutions adding and trimming, insiders cashing out, some analysts eyeing a path to $1 trillion, others seeing 30–40% downside. [68]
- Non‑financial risks: political controversy, ethical debates and cost/lock‑in concerns around its government work. [69]
For traders, that mix spells volatility. For long‑term investors, it raises a simple question: can Palantir grow fast enough, for long enough, to grow into one of the richest valuations in global markets?
References
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