NEW YORK, Feb 9, 2026, 16:53 EST — After-hours
- Palantir shares climbed after hours on Monday, adding to gains among hard-hit software names.
- An updated analyst note painted the stock as approaching fair value, though valuation still sparks debate.
- Eyes shift to U.S. jobs and inflation data due this week, with traders bracing for the next move in rate-sensitive tech.
Palantir Technologies Inc (PLTR.O) closed the post-market session up roughly 5.2% at $142.91 on Monday, bouncing around between $134.81 and $145.87 earlier in the day.
Software stocks have been all over the map lately. Investors dove back into some of the most battered names, despite nerves over how AI might shake up old-school software pricing—still a big source of volatility.
Palantir finds itself right at the heart of that debate. The company pitches itself as “AI for the enterprise,” yet its shares behave more like a volatile software play—surging when risk appetite returns, dropping sharply when talk turns to rates or tech shakeups.
Morningstar analyst Mark Giarelli on Monday bumped Palantir’s fair value estimate up to $150 from $135, citing guidance that outpaced expectations and what he described as the absence of a genuine rival for the company’s “ontology” framework. Giarelli highlighted Palantir’s “rule of 40” metric, which combines revenue growth and operating margin, noting it reached 127% this quarter. Morningstar
Palantir’s fourth-quarter revenue climbed last week, boosted by solid U.S. government demand. The company is projecting $1.53 billion to $1.54 billion in first-quarter sales and expects 2026 revenue to land between $7.18 billion and $7.20 billion, according to Reuters. “Valuation question marks won’t disappear,” said eToro analyst Zavier Wong, noting the stock remains priced as if there’s no room for error. Reuters
Denver-based, the company first broke into data analytics with a government focus. Lately, it’s been pressing further into commercial business—promoting its software as a way for firms to connect data and develop AI apps on top.
The main cloud hanging over the sector remains the risk that rapidly evolving AI could squeeze the traditional software subscription model—typically billed per seat or per user. Over the past three months, software and services shares have trailed the S&P 500 by almost 24 percentage points. Options traders aren’t relaxing, either; 30-day implied volatility for a key tech-software ETF is still running high, and short interest is hovering close to all-time highs, Reuters noted.
Palantir backers are eyeing one thing right now: the company needs to secure more sizable contracts and prove its commercial push can outlast the current post-earnings rally. On the flip side, skeptics are alert for any slowdown—or if chatter about “AI replaces software” picks up again, the stock’s multiple could tighten fast.
Macro’s up next. Eyes shift to the postponed U.S. January payrolls numbers landing Wednesday, followed by Friday’s CPI data. Truist’s Keith Lerner labeled the market “sharply oversold” after tech took a beating last week. Reuters
