NEW YORK, April 11, 2026, 16:03 EDT
Wall Street’s Monday open could hinge on weekend U.S.-Iran discussions and initial tanker moves through the Strait of Hormuz. On Saturday, three supertankers navigated a trial passage while negotiators gathered in Islamabad, offering investors a glimpse at potential relief from the energy shock that rattled markets in March.
The S&P 500 has almost erased its drop following the late-February U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran, with Friday closing out the strongest week for major U.S. indexes since November. But expectations haven’t cooled off: According to Reuters, analysts are looking for S&P 500 companies to post first-quarter earnings growth of about 14% from last year, which doesn’t leave much cushion for disappointing forecasts.
Another bump on Friday: The Labor Department reported a 0.9% surge in consumer prices for March—the sharpest monthly move since June 2022—pushing annual inflation up to 3.3%. At the same time, the University of Michigan’s early read on consumer sentiment tumbled to 47.6. With March retail sales figures not set to arrive until April 21 and housing starts numbers now expected April 29, investors are left watching earnings updates, oil moves, and whatever the weekend throws at them.
Friday made it clear where investors are still putting cash. The Dow shed 0.56%, with the S&P 500 edging down 0.11%. But the Nasdaq managed a 0.35% advance, powered by chips: Broadcom jumped 4.7%, Nvidia tacked on 2.6%, and U.S.-listed TSMC moved higher after first-quarter revenue surged 35.1% year-over-year.
Banks kick things off. Goldman Sachs opens up U.S. bank earnings on Monday, followed by JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo on Tuesday. Bank of America and Morgan Stanley finish the group on Wednesday. According to Reuters, analysts are looking for bigger profits from the major banks thanks to steady net interest income and investment-banking revenue. But after the oil shock, investors are watching closely for what bank executives say about lending, consumer spending, and deal activity.
Investors are tuning in for any hints about what lies ahead. Morgan Stanley analysts estimate that eased draft Basel and GSIB capital requirements may unlock up to $320 billion for 36 U.S. banks—Goldman and Citi are expected to gain the most. Baird’s David George, for his part, says heightened geopolitical turmoil could lift trading desks, though other lines might lag until the conflict subsides.
Outside of banking, it’s a busy week. Johnson & Johnson steps up, with ASML coming Wednesday, and then Netflix and TSMC slated for Thursday. Reuters notes that by Friday, nearly 10% of the S&P 500 will have reported. ASML and TSMC take on added significance after Nvidia and Broadcom’s rally last Friday put the chip cycle’s momentum under scrutiny.
The U.S. economic schedule has thinned out, but there are still a few key items coming up. On Tuesday, producer price data drops at 8:30 a.m. ET, offering a glimpse at what companies are charging before the goods get to consumers. Wednesday brings the Fed’s Beige Book at 2 p.m., a regional business snapshot, and industrial production numbers hit Thursday morning at 9:15. Investors are also eyeing Washington, where the IMF and World Bank Spring Meetings kick off Monday, searching for any policy cues.
The Fed’s position remains uncertain. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly told Reuters that the recent oil shock means inflation won’t reach 2% as quickly as hoped and could leave the central bank on pause. Core CPI—which excludes food and energy—still ticked up 0.2% in March, putting it 2.6% above last year’s level. Next up: Tuesday’s producer-price data, a potential signal of whether rising energy costs are filtering into broader business prices.
The risk scenario isn’t priced into the calendar yet. According to Commerzbank analysts, oil’s “key issue” is whether shipping through Hormuz will actually resume. On Saturday, Reuters noted that even with the first tankers moving, the waterway remains a sticking point in negotiations. Washington, for its part, pushed back on an Iranian assertion that frozen funds were being freed up—a signal that any relief in energy markets could be short-lived. Reuters
Monday looks likely to kick off with geopolitics in the driver’s seat, earnings following, and data trailing just behind. Joanne Hsu, who runs the Michigan survey, pointed out that plenty of consumers are pinning their gloom on the Iran conflict. Brent Schutte at Northwestern Mutual put it bluntly: “company guidance becomes incredibly paramount.” By Thursday, it’ll be clear—either profits hold the rebound together, or oil drags everything back toward those old worries about inflation and rates. Reuters
