Palantir Stock Today: AI Superstar or Bubble Risk? Latest PLTR News, Forecasts and Analysis (Dec. 2, 2025)

Key Takeaways

• Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) trades around $167.50 today, roughly 19% below its all‑time high of $207.52 set on Nov. 3, after its worst month since 2023. ^[1]
• Despite the pullback, shares are still up roughly 120%+ year‑to‑date, making Palantir one of 2025’s best‑performing large‑cap AI stocks. ^[2]
• Q3 2025 was a blowout: revenue grew 63% to $1.18 billion, U.S. commercial revenue jumped 121%, GAAP operating margin hit 33%, and adjusted EPS beat forecasts. ^[3]
• Wall Street’s overall stance is “Hold” with most analysts cautious on valuation: 16–28 analysts, depending on source, see median 12‑month targets around $167–190, not far from today’s price. ^[4]
• New headlines on Dec. 2, 2025 highlight heavy institutional activity, Army AI supply‑chain deals, and aggressive long‑term bull vs. bubble debates—including trillion‑dollar upside scenarios and warnings from Michael Burry–aligned skeptics. ^[5]

Where Palantir Stock Stands on December 2, 2025

As of mid‑day trading on Dec. 2, 2025, Palantir Technologies (NASDAQ: PLTR) changes hands at about $167.49 per share, giving the company a market capitalization near $400 billion. ^[6]

Key snapshot:

• Price: ~$167.50
• 12‑month range: roughly $63.40 – $207.52 ^[7]
• Market cap: about $399–401 billion, placing Palantir among the 25 most valuable companies globally. ^[8]
• Valuation (approximate ranges from multiple data providers):
  • Trailing P/E: ~350x–400x+ ^[9]
  • Forward P/E (based on 2025–2026 estimates): ~160x–260x ^[10]
  • Price‑to‑Sales (TTM): ~100x+ ^[11]

In other words: Palantir is trading like a hyper‑growth AI franchise, not a typical software stock. Even after November’s sell‑off, it still carries one of the richest valuation multiples in the public markets. ^[12]

November’s Hangover: Best Year, Worst Month

November 2025 marked a reality check:

• PLTR fell about 16–20% in November, its worst month since August 2023, as investors rotated out of richly valued AI names. ^[13]
• Commentary from CoinCentral and others notes Palantir trading at more than 200x forward earnings even after the decline, prompting some analysts to label the valuation “extreme”. ^[14]
• High‑profile bears like Michael Burry disclosed put positions against both Palantir and Nvidia, framing the AI trade as a potential bubble driven by aggressive accounting and hardware obsolescence risk. ^[15]

At the same time, Palantir is still up triple digits year‑to‑date—around 117–170% depending on the source and date cut‑off—and remains one of 2025’s standout AI winners. ^[16]

So the setup heading into December is classic high‑growth drama: “incredible business, controversial price.”

Q3 2025: A Blowout Quarter That Changed the Story

Palantir’s Q3 2025 results, released on Nov. 3, are the foundation of today’s debate. Key numbers:

• Revenue: $1.18 billion, +63% year‑over‑year, ~8% above consensus. ^[17]
• U.S. revenue: $883 million, +77% YoY, +20% QoQ. ^[18]
• U.S. commercial revenue: $397 million, +121% YoY, +29% QoQ. ^[19]
• U.S. government revenue: $486 million, +52% YoY, +14% QoQ. ^[20]
• GAAP operating income: $393 million (33% margin, vs. 16%+ a year ago). ^[21]
• Adjusted operating income: $601 million (51% margin). ^[22]
• GAAP net income: about $476 million, up >200% YoY. ^[23]
• Adjusted EPS: $0.21 vs. $0.17 estimated, a 24% beat; GAAP EPS came in at $0.18 vs. $0.06 a year ago. ^[24]
• Adjusted free cash flow: $540 million (46% margin); trailing‑12‑month adjusted FCF around $2.0 billion with a ~51% margin. ^[25]
• Net dollar retention: roughly 134%, signaling strong expansion from existing customers. ^[26]
• Management and outside analysts highlight a “Rule of 40” score (revenue growth + operating margin) above 100, which is extremely rare at this scale. ^[27]

CEO Alex Karp described Palantir’s AI‑driven commercial engine as an “absolute juggernaut” delivering “otherworldly” growth—a sentiment echoed by coverage from the Wall Street Journal, The Times, and Investopedia that frame Q3 as a defining moment in Palantir’s shift from niche government contractor to mainstream AI platform. ^[28]

Guidance and 2026 Earnings Expectations

Following Q3, Palantir raised guidance for the third consecutive quarter:

• Q4 2025 revenue guidance:$1.327–$1.331 billion, implying ~61% YoY growth and continuing momentum in U.S. commercial. ^[29]
• Full‑year 2025 revenue guidance:$4.396–$4.40 billion, about 53% growth vs. 2024 and significantly above initial 2025 outlook. ^[30]
• External data providers see Q4 2025 EPS consensus around $0.18–$0.23, with 2026 full‑year EPS estimates in the $0.55–$0.60 range and revenue forecasts around $4.2 billion or more. ^[31]

Most calendars currently expect Q4 2025 earnings in early to mid‑February 2026 (around Feb. 17–18, still unconfirmed), making that report the next major catalyst. ^[32]

Today’s Fresh Headlines (Dec. 2, 2025): What’s New Right Now

1. Big Hedge Funds Are Moving

Two MarketBeat alerts out today show notable institutional flows:

• Arrowstreet Capital boosted its Palantir position by 46.8%, buying 714,295 shares and lifting its stake to 2.24 million shares (about 0.09% of the company), worth over $305 million at recent prices. ^[33]
• Pinkerton Wealth LLC disclosed a new 24,894‑share position worth about $3.4 million, alongside multiple smaller wealth managers adding tiny stakes, with institutional ownership now around 45–46% of PLTR’s float. ^[34]

On the flip side, billionaire Ken Griffin’s hedge fund cut its stake by 32% in Q3, selling roughly 224,000 shares after a 2,000%+ three‑year run, and several high‑profile investors (Buffett, Ackman, Druckenmiller) still avoid the stock entirely. ^[35]

2. CEO Karp vs. the Skeptics

CoinCentral reports that PLTR fell 16% in November, and that Karp appeared on CNBC twice in one week to rebut valuation bears and respond to Michael Burry’s short position, reportedly calling Burry’s move “market manipulation.” ^[36]

Articles from 24/7 Wall St. and others go even further, asking whether Palantir “could be the most overvalued company that ever existed”, pointing to forward P/E ratios above 150x and P/S ratios above 100x as evidence that the stock’s valuation has decoupled from traditional fundamentals. ^[37]

3. Wedbush & Dan Ives Float a $1 Trillion Scenario

Today, Benzinga highlights Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, who reiterates Palantir as a top AI pick and suggests the company could reach a $1 trillion market cap in 2–3 years if it continues to execute, implying a share price of roughly $400–450+ from today’s levels. ^[38]

That forecast assumes:

• Continued hypergrowth in AI platform adoption.
• Sustained 40–50%+ operating margins.
• Palantir effectively monetizing a growing pipeline of government and commercial contracts worldwide. ^[39]

It’s an aggressive bull case—and very far from consensus—but it’s part of what’s driving interest (and volatility) in PLTR.

4. New Army Supply‑Chain Partnership

A Simply Wall St note published today dissects a new U.S. Army supply‑chain and risk‑management deal:

• In November, Exiger announced a partnership with Palantir to deliver an integrated, AI‑driven supply‑chain and risk‑management capability for the U.S. Army, combining Palantir’s AI platform with Exiger’s analytics under a multi‑million‑dollar contract. ^[40]
• The collaboration reinforces Palantir’s positioning as a defense‑grade AI infrastructure provider, embedding its software deeper into military logistics and operational planning. ^[41]

5. “Next Nvidia?” and AI Stock Comparisons

Zacks today groups Palantir and Micron as two fast‑growing AI names that could “become the next Nvidia,” citing soaring demand for Palantir’s Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP) and its role in converting AI compute into usable business outcomes. ^[42]

Separately, multiple outlets note that while Palantir’s share performance has beaten many AI chipmakers in 2025, its software‑heavy model also leads to valuation metrics far above Nvidia and peers, amplifying both upside and downside risk. ^[43]

Government & Defense: A Growing Moat

Palantir’s government franchise remains the backbone of its story. 2025 has seen a string of notable contracts and renewals:

• A U.S. Army Enterprise Agreement consolidating ~75 separate contracts into a single framework worth up to $10 billion, enabling faster deployment of Palantir software to warfighters and cutting reseller fees. ^[44]
• A U.S. Treasury contract to build a unified API and data layer supporting analytics, workflow automation and regulatory reporting. ^[45]
• A $29.9 million Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) task order to renew software licenses and support ImmigrationOS, built on Palantir’s Investigative Case Management platform. ^[46]
• Additional federal deals across the DOJ, DHS, HHS and other agencies documented in U.S. spending databases, underscoring how deeply embedded Palantir has become in U.S. national security and law‑enforcement infrastructure. ^[47]

Analysts increasingly frame Palantir as an “AI defense stalwart” for the “free world,” arguing that its mission‑critical role in NATO‑aligned militaries and security agencies could make its revenue streams more resilient than traditional software peers during downturns. ^[48]

Commercial AI Platform (AIP): Hyper‑Growth at Enterprise Scale

The other half of the story is Palantir’s commercial AI platform, AIP:

• U.S. commercial customers: now around 530, up 65% year‑over‑year. ^[49]
• In Q3 alone, Palantir closed over 80 deals worth more than $1 million each and 200+ deals above that threshold over the trailing 12 months, helping push total contract value bookings up more than 140–150% YoY. ^[50]
• U.S. commercial remaining deal value grew nearly 200% YoY to about $3.6 billion, giving Palantir a multi‑year revenue backlog to harvest. ^[51]

Third‑party analyses describe AIP as a full enterprise AI operating system—not just a “wrapper” on large language models, but a stack combining Palantir’s ontology framework, security controls, data integration, and orchestration of AI agents. This architecture is frequently cited as raising switching costs and deepening customer lock‑in. ^[52]

Valuation: Hyper‑Growth or Hype?

There is unusual consensus on one thing: Palantir is expensive by any traditional metric.

• Multiple data providers peg trailing P/E in the high‑300s to 400s+ and forward P/E between ~160x and 250x, depending on whether you use GAAP vs. adjusted earnings and 2025 vs. 2026 estimates. ^[53]
• Price‑to‑Sales ratios mostly sit around 100x+, far above typical high‑growth software peers, where 10x–20x is more common. ^[54]
• Seeking Alpha and others assign Palantir poor valuation grades, even while rating its growth and profitability as outstanding. ^[55]

Bearish commentary:

• 24/7 Wall St. argues Palantir “could be the most overvalued company that ever existed,” warning that even small disappointments could trigger sharp price corrections. ^[56]
• A Motley Fool piece titled “1 Flashing Warning Sign Palantir Investors Can’t Afford to Ignore” underscores the risk of paying such rich multiples, noting the stock is down about 20% from its high despite superb execution. ^[57]
• Michael Burry’s public short and Ken Griffin’s partial exit are often cited as symbolic of smart money caution on the AI trade. ^[58]

Bullish counter‑arguments:

• MarketBeat and others argue analysts may be underestimating Palantir’s medium‑term earnings power, with some models calling for 2026 adjusted EPS to be several times current consensus and long‑term operating margins in the 45–50% range. ^[59]
• Nasdaq and Motley Fool pieces suggest Palantir could soar 50% or more by 2026, especially if AIP becomes the default AI operating layer for large enterprises and governments. ^[60]
• TipRanks and other aggregators emphasize that, despite valuation worries, Palantir’s growth, margins, and contract wins are among the strongest in software, earning it a “Neutral/Hold” consensus instead of outright “Sell”. ^[61]

Wall Street Consensus and Price Targets

Across major platforms, the message is surprisingly consistent:

• Consensus rating:Hold / Neutral
  • TipRanks: 16 analysts – 3 Buy, 11 Hold, 2 Sell. ^[62]
  • MarketBeat: majority “Hold,” with a few Buy and Sell ratings. ^[63]
  • StockAnalysis, MarketWatch and Seeking Alpha all show similar “Hold / Neutral” averages. ^[64]
• 12‑month price targets (approximate ranges):
  • Average/median: about $167–190 per share. ^[65]
  • High target: around $250–255 (Bank of America, some bullish shops). ^[66]
  • Low target: about $50 or slightly above, implying severe downside in more pessimistic scenarios. ^[67]

Several outlets, including 24/7 Wall St., provide independent long‑term forecasts that actually model EPS and revenue out to 2030, yet still project:

• Potential near‑term downside (targets like $120–135 for 2025–2026).
• Modest mid‑term upside (targets around $178–192 by 2029–2030) if growth and margins hold. ^[68]

In short, Wall Street likes Palantir the business, but is split on Palantir the stock at today’s price.

Bull vs. Bear: The Core Investment Debate

The Bull Case

Supporters argue Palantir could be one of the defining AI companies of this decade:

1. Mission‑critical AI infrastructure
   • Palantir’s software underpins military, intelligence, and critical infrastructure operations in the U.S. and allied nations, making it harder to rip out than typical SaaS tools. ^[69]
2. Explosive commercial AI growth
   • 121% growth in U.S. commercial revenue, 65% customer growth and 140%+ contract value growth suggest AIP is gaining traction as a standard AI operating layer for large enterprises. ^[70]
3. Elite profitability and cash flow
   • GAAP operating margins in the 30s and adjusted margins above 50%, plus ~$2 billion in trailing adjusted free cash flow, give Palantir ample capital to invest and weather cycles. ^[71]
4. Long runway: defense + enterprise + geopolitics
   • Rising defense budgets, geopolitical tensions and an AI arms race create a tailwind for Palantir’s dual identity as both AI and defense leader. ^[72]
5. Optionality: Trillion‑dollar scenarios
   • Bulls like Wedbush’s Dan Ives see a path to $1 trillion market cap within 2–3 years if Palantir keeps compounding at current rates and becomes the default AI OS of the West. ^[73]

The Bear Case

Skeptics counter that all of this may already be priced in—plus some:

1. Extreme valuation multiples
   • Trading at 100x+ sales and 160–250x forward earnings puts Palantir in rarified air. Even great companies can deliver weak long‑term returns when bought at such extremes. ^[74]
2. Crowded AI trade and bubble risk
   • November’s drop, plus Burry’s public short, highlight the risk that AI as a theme may be ahead of fundamentals across the board. If sentiment turns, Palantir could fall harder than peers given its premium multiples. ^[75]
3. Concentration and political/regulatory risk
   • A large share of revenue is tied to U.S. and allied governments, exposing Palantir to budget cycles, policy shifts, and reputational debates over surveillance and national security. ^[76]
4. Insider selling and billionaire skepticism
   • Ongoing insider sales and exits from high‑profile funds, combined with the visible absence of some legendary value investors, fuel the argument that the smartest money is cautious. ^[77]
5. Execution must remain nearly flawless
   • At these valuations, any slowdown in AIP adoption, defense contract delays, or macro shocks could force a de‑rating even if the underlying business remains strong. ^[78]

What to Watch Next

For investors and traders following PLTR into 2026, key signposts include:

1. Q4 2025 earnings (expected Feb. 2026)
   • Can Palantir hit or beat its $1.327–1.331 billion Q4 revenue guidance while sustaining 50%+ adjusted margins? ^[79]
2. Continued AIP adoption and deal flow
   • Watch metrics like U.S. commercial revenue growth, new customers, deals >$1 million, and remaining deal value for signs whether Q3 was a peak or a new baseline. ^[80]
3. New government contracts and renewals
   • Follow updates on the Army EA, Exiger partnership, Treasury API project, ICE/ImmigrationOS, and any NATO or allied contracts tied to defense build‑ups. ^[81]
4. Valuation resets or multiple compression
   • If earnings scale faster than expected, today’s multiples could drop without the stock falling. Conversely, any macro or AI‑sector wobble could compress multiples even if revenue growth stays strong. ^[82]
5. Macro & AI sentiment (Nvidia, broader AI complex)
   • PLTR has often traded in sympathy with Nvidia and other AI bellwethers, so watch broader AI hardware and cloud spending trends. ^[83]

Bottom Line

As of Dec. 2, 2025, Palantir stock sits at the crossroads of two powerful forces:

• Fundamentals: Q3 and guidance show a company growing 60%+ with elite margins and expanding moats in both defense and commercial AI.
• Valuation & sentiment: The stock is priced for continued perfection, making it highly sensitive to macro shocks, AI sentiment, and any bumps in execution.

Wall Street’s consensus “Hold” rating captures that tension perfectly. Bulls see a once‑in‑a‑generation AI platform that could still be early; bears see a great company at a price that leaves little room for error.

Either way, PLTR is likely to remain one of the market’s most closely watched—and hotly debated—AI stocks heading into 2026.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Stocks mentioned are volatile and may not suit all investors. Always do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.

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