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Palantir Stock Today: AI Superstar or Bubble Risk? Latest PLTR News, Forecasts and Analysis (Dec. 2, 2025)
2 December 2025
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11 mins read

Palantir Stock Today: AI Superstar or Bubble Risk? Latest PLTR News, Forecasts and Analysis (Dec. 2, 2025)

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Key Takeaways

  • Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) trades around $167.50 today, roughly 19% below its all‑time high of $207.52 set on Nov. 3, after its worst month since 2023. MarketBeat+1
  • Despite the pullback, shares are still up roughly 120%+ year‑to‑date, making Palantir one of 2025’s best‑performing large‑cap AI stocks. 24/7 Wall St.+1
  • Q3 2025 was a blowout: revenue grew 63% to $1.18 billion, U.S. commercial revenue jumped 121%, GAAP operating margin hit 33%, and adjusted EPS beat forecasts. Investopedia+4investors.palantir.com+4Inve…
  • Wall Street’s overall stance is “Hold” with most analysts cautious on valuation: 16–28 analysts, depending on source, see median 12‑month targets around $167–190, not far from today’s price. Seeking Alpha+5StockAnalysis+5stocksguide.…
  • New headlines on Dec. 2, 2025 highlight heavy institutional activity, Army AI supply‑chain deals, and aggressive long‑term bull vs. bubble debates—including trillion‑dollar upside scenarios and warnings from Michael Burry–aligned skeptics. MarketBeat+7MarketBeat+7MarketBeat+7

Where Palantir Stock Stands on December 2, 2025

As of mid‑day trading on Dec. 2, 2025, Palantir Technologies (NASDAQ: PLTR) changes hands at about $167.49 per share, giving the company a market capitalization near $400 billion. Companies Market Cap+2StockAnalysis+2

Key snapshot:

In other words: Palantir is trading like a hyper‑growth AI franchise, not a typical software stock. Even after November’s sell‑off, it still carries one of the richest valuation multiples in the public markets. 24/7 Wall St.+4Seeking Alpha+4Reuters+4

November’s Hangover: Best Year, Worst Month

November 2025 marked a reality check:

  • PLTR fell about 16–20% in November, its worst month since August 2023, as investors rotated out of richly valued AI names. Business Insider+4CoinCentral+4Yahoo Finan…
  • Commentary from CoinCentral and others notes Palantir trading at more than 200x forward earnings even after the decline, prompting some analysts to label the valuation “extreme”. 24/7 Wall St.+4CoinCentral+4CoinCentral+4
  • High‑profile bears like Michael Burry disclosed put positions against both Palantir and Nvidia, framing the AI trade as a potential bubble driven by aggressive accounting and hardware obsolescence risk. CoinCentral+2Business Insider+2

At the same time, Palantir is still up triple digits year‑to‑date—around 117–170% depending on the source and date cut‑off—and remains one of 2025’s standout AI winners. Yahoo Finance+524/7 Wall St.+5Investopedia…

So the setup heading into December is classic high‑growth drama: “incredible business, controversial price.”

Q3 2025: A Blowout Quarter That Changed the Story

Palantir’s Q3 2025 results, released on Nov. 3, are the foundation of today’s debate. Key numbers:

CEO Alex Karp described Palantir’s AI‑driven commercial engine as an “absolute juggernaut” delivering “otherworldly” growth—a sentiment echoed by coverage from the Wall Street Journal, The Times, and Investopedia that frame Q3 as a defining moment in Palantir’s shift from niche government contractor to mainstream AI platform. sourcery.vc+4The Times+4The Wall Street Jo…

Guidance and 2026 Earnings Expectations

Following Q3, Palantir raised guidance for the third consecutive quarter:

Most calendars currently expect Q4 2025 earnings in early to mid‑February 2026 (around Feb. 17–18, still unconfirmed), making that report the next major catalyst. Zacks+5wallstreethorizon.com+5MarketBeat+5

Today’s Fresh Headlines (Dec. 2, 2025): What’s New Right Now

1. Big Hedge Funds Are Moving

Two MarketBeat alerts out today show notable institutional flows:

  • Arrowstreet Capital boosted its Palantir position by 46.8%, buying 714,295 shares and lifting its stake to 2.24 million shares (about 0.09% of the company), worth over $305 million at recent prices. MarketBeat+1
  • Pinkerton Wealth LLC disclosed a new 24,894‑share position worth about $3.4 million, alongside multiple smaller wealth managers adding tiny stakes, with institutional ownership now around 45–46% of PLTR’s float. MarketBeat+1

On the flip side, billionaire Ken Griffin’s hedge fund cut its stake by 32% in Q3, selling roughly 224,000 shares after a 2,000%+ three‑year run, and several high‑profile investors (Buffett, Ackman, Druckenmiller) still avoid the stock entirely. CoinCentral+1

2. CEO Karp vs. the Skeptics

CoinCentral reports that PLTR fell 16% in November, and that Karp appeared on CNBC twice in one week to rebut valuation bears and respond to Michael Burry’s short position, reportedly calling Burry’s move “market manipulation.” CoinCentral+1

Articles from 24/7 Wall St. and others go even further, asking whether Palantir “could be the most overvalued company that ever existed”, pointing to forward P/E ratios above 150x and P/S ratios above 100x as evidence that the stock’s valuation has decoupled from traditional fundamentals. ValueInvesting+524/7 Wall St.+5Seeking Alp…

3. Wedbush & Dan Ives Float a $1 Trillion Scenario

Today, Benzinga highlights Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, who reiterates Palantir as a top AI pick and suggests the company could reach a $1 trillion market cap in 2–3 years if it continues to execute, implying a share price of roughly $400–450+ from today’s levels. Investopedia+3Benzinga+3Benzinga+3

That forecast assumes:

  • Continued hypergrowth in AI platform adoption.
  • Sustained 40–50%+ operating margins.
  • Palantir effectively monetizing a growing pipeline of government and commercial contracts worldwide. Reuters+4MarketBeat+4Seeking Alpha+4

It’s an aggressive bull case—and very far from consensus—but it’s part of what’s driving interest (and volatility) in PLTR.

4. New Army Supply‑Chain Partnership

A Simply Wall St note published today dissects a new U.S. Army supply‑chain and risk‑management deal:

  • In November, Exiger announced a partnership with Palantir to deliver an integrated, AI‑driven supply‑chain and risk‑management capability for the U.S. Army, combining Palantir’s AI platform with Exiger’s analytics under a multi‑million‑dollar contract. The Chronicle-Journal+4Simply Wall St+4U.S…
  • The collaboration reinforces Palantir’s positioning as a defense‑grade AI infrastructure provider, embedding its software deeper into military logistics and operational planning. Simply Wall St+2The Wall Street Journal+2

5. “Next Nvidia?” and AI Stock Comparisons

Zacks today groups Palantir and Micron as two fast‑growing AI names that could “become the next Nvidia,” citing soaring demand for Palantir’s Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP) and its role in converting AI compute into usable business outcomes. Nasdaq+3Zacks+3MarketBeat+3

Separately, multiple outlets note that while Palantir’s share performance has beaten many AI chipmakers in 2025, its software‑heavy model also leads to valuation metrics far above Nvidia and peers, amplifying both upside and downside risk. Nasdaq+3The Wall Street Journal+3Reuters+3

Government & Defense: A Growing Moat

Palantir’s government franchise remains the backbone of its story. 2025 has seen a string of notable contracts and renewals:

  • A U.S. Army Enterprise Agreement consolidating ~75 separate contracts into a single framework worth up to $10 billion, enabling faster deployment of Palantir software to warfighters and cutting reseller fees. The Chronicle-Journal+4U.S. Army+4GovCon W…
  • A U.S. Treasury contract to build a unified API and data layer supporting analytics, workflow automation and regulatory reporting. U.S. Department of the Treasury+2Reuters+2
  • A $29.9 million Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) task order to renew software licenses and support ImmigrationOS, built on Palantir’s Investigative Case Management platform. usaspending.gov+3Executive Gov+3SAM.gov+3
  • Additional federal deals across the DOJ, DHS, HHS and other agencies documented in U.S. spending databases, underscoring how deeply embedded Palantir has become in U.S. national security and law‑enforcement infrastructure. The Wall Street Journal+5usaspending.gov+5…

Analysts increasingly frame Palantir as an “AI defense stalwart” for the “free world,” arguing that its mission‑critical role in NATO‑aligned militaries and security agencies could make its revenue streams more resilient than traditional software peers during downturns. sourcery.vc+3The Wall Street Journal+3Seek…

Commercial AI Platform (AIP): Hyper‑Growth at Enterprise Scale

The other half of the story is Palantir’s commercial AI platform, AIP:

Third‑party analyses describe AIP as a full enterprise AI operating system—not just a “wrapper” on large language models, but a stack combining Palantir’s ontology framework, security controls, data integration, and orchestration of AI agents. This architecture is frequently cited as raising switching costs and deepening customer lock‑in. investors.palantir.com+4Medium+4Nasdaq+4

Valuation: Hyper‑Growth or Hype?

There is unusual consensus on one thing: Palantir is expensive by any traditional metric.

Bearish commentary:

  • 24/7 Wall St. argues Palantir “could be the most overvalued company that ever existed,” warning that even small disappointments could trigger sharp price corrections. 24/7 Wall St.+224/7 Wall St.+2
  • A Motley Fool piece titled “1 Flashing Warning Sign Palantir Investors Can’t Afford to Ignore” underscores the risk of paying such rich multiples, noting the stock is down about 20% from its high despite superb execution. Nasdaq+3The Motley Fool+3The Motley Fool+3
  • Michael Burry’s public short and Ken Griffin’s partial exit are often cited as symbolic of smart money caution on the AI trade. Nasdaq+5CoinCentral+5CoinCentral+5

Bullish counter‑arguments:

  • MarketBeat and others argue analysts may be underestimating Palantir’s medium‑term earnings power, with some models calling for 2026 adjusted EPS to be several times current consensus and long‑term operating margins in the 45–50% range. Moomoo+3MarketBeat+3MarketBeat+3
  • Nasdaq and Motley Fool pieces suggest Palantir could soar 50% or more by 2026, especially if AIP becomes the default AI operating layer for large enterprises and governments. 24/7 Wall St.+3Nasdaq+3The Motley Fool+3
  • TipRanks and other aggregators emphasize that, despite valuation worries, Palantir’s growth, margins, and contract wins are among the strongest in software, earning it a “Neutral/Hold” consensus instead of outright “Sell”. TipRanks+4TipRanks+4TipRanks+4

Wall Street Consensus and Price Targets

Across major platforms, the message is surprisingly consistent:

Several outlets, including 24/7 Wall St., provide independent long‑term forecasts that actually model EPS and revenue out to 2030, yet still project:

  • Potential near‑term downside (targets like $120–135 for 2025–2026).
  • Modest mid‑term upside (targets around $178–192 by 2029–2030) if growth and margins hold. Reuters+424/7 Wall St.+424/7 Wall St.+4

In short, Wall Street likes Palantir the business, but is split on Palantir the stock at today’s price.

Bull vs. Bear: The Core Investment Debate

The Bull Case

Supporters argue Palantir could be one of the defining AI companies of this decade:

  1. Mission‑critical AI infrastructure
    • Palantir’s software underpins military, intelligence, and critical infrastructure operations in the U.S. and allied nations, making it harder to rip out than typical SaaS tools. Investopedia+3U.S. Army+3The Wall Street J…
  2. Explosive commercial AI growth
    • 121% growth in U.S. commercial revenue, 65% customer growth and 140%+ contract value growth suggest AIP is gaining traction as a standard AI operating layer for large enterprises. acquirersmultiple.com+5investors.palantir.…
  3. Elite profitability and cash flow
    • GAAP operating margins in the 30s and adjusted margins above 50%, plus ~$2 billion in trailing adjusted free cash flow, give Palantir ample capital to invest and weather cycles. 24/7 Wall St.+4Nasdaq+4investors.palantir.…
  4. Long runway: defense + enterprise + geopolitics
  5. Optionality: Trillion‑dollar scenarios
    • Bulls like Wedbush’s Dan Ives see a path to $1 trillion market cap within 2–3 years if Palantir keeps compounding at current rates and becomes the default AI OS of the West. 24/7 Wall St.+3Benzinga+3Benzinga+3

The Bear Case

Skeptics counter that all of this may already be priced in—plus some:

  1. Extreme valuation multiples
  2. Crowded AI trade and bubble risk
    • November’s drop, plus Burry’s public short, highlight the risk that AI as a theme may be ahead of fundamentals across the board. If sentiment turns, Palantir could fall harder than peers given its premium multiples. Yahoo Finance+5CoinCentral+5Business Insid…
  3. Concentration and political/regulatory risk
    • A large share of revenue is tied to U.S. and allied governments, exposing Palantir to budget cycles, policy shifts, and reputational debates over surveillance and national security. U.S. Department of the Treasury+3The Wall …
  4. Insider selling and billionaire skepticism
    • Ongoing insider sales and exits from high‑profile funds, combined with the visible absence of some legendary value investors, fuel the argument that the smartest money is cautious. CoinCentral+5MarketBeat+5MarketBeat+5
  5. Execution must remain nearly flawless

What to Watch Next

For investors and traders following PLTR into 2026, key signposts include:

  1. Q4 2025 earnings (expected Feb. 2026)
  2. Continued AIP adoption and deal flow
  3. New government contracts and renewals
  4. Valuation resets or multiple compression
    • If earnings scale faster than expected, today’s multiples could drop without the stock falling. Conversely, any macro or AI‑sector wobble could compress multiples even if revenue growth stays strong. MarketWatch+4Seeking Alpha+424/7 Wall St.+…
  5. Macro & AI sentiment (Nvidia, broader AI complex)

Bottom Line

As of Dec. 2, 2025, Palantir stock sits at the crossroads of two powerful forces:

  • Fundamentals: Q3 and guidance show a company growing 60%+ with elite margins and expanding moats in both defense and commercial AI.
  • Valuation & sentiment: The stock is priced for continued perfection, making it highly sensitive to macro shocks, AI sentiment, and any bumps in execution.

Wall Street’s consensus “Hold” rating captures that tension perfectly. Bulls see a once‑in‑a‑generation AI platform that could still be early; bears see a great company at a price that leaves little room for error.

Either way, PLTR is likely to remain one of the market’s most closely watched—and hotly debated—AI stocks heading into 2026.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Stocks mentioned are volatile and may not suit all investors. Always do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Khadija Saeed Latest posts

A dedicated markets reporter, she covers stocks, macroeconomics, and major business developments with a sharp eye for detail and accuracy.

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