NEW YORK, June 3, 2026, 10:02 EDT
Palantir shares dropped roughly 4% after the open in New York on Wednesday, with both bullish and bearish voices out in force as the debate grew over whether the AI software firm’s trajectory justifies its high price tag. The stock changed hands at $145.96 at 9:47 a.m. EDT, putting Palantir’s market cap near $374 billion.
Palantir faces tough timing with its annual meeting scheduled for 10 a.m. EDT on Wednesday. Investors plan to vote on several shareholder proposals, including calls for human-rights reports on how Palantir products are used in defense and immigration. The board wants shareholders to vote down the proposals.
The valuation story is getting more concrete. Investors are looking at Palantir’s rapid revenue gains, its U.S. defense business, and its Artificial Intelligence Platform, which helps organizations analyze data and make decisions. At the same time, political scrutiny in the U.S. and U.K. hangs over the company, and the stock price still bakes in years of solid performance.
Palantir could reach $250 by 2028, according to a bullish 24/7 Wall St. piece out Wednesday. That relies on U.S. commercial growth holding above 100%, adjusted free cash flow staying at the top of guidance, and a steady premium for AI software. That would mean a jump of more than 70% from Wednesday morning’s price.
The bearish read on Yahoo Finance was more direct. Motley Fool tech analyst Keithen Drury said Wall Street is predicting $2.07 per share in earnings for Palantir in 2027; plugging in a 50x price-to-earnings ratio gets the share price to $103.50, which is about 51% off the figure he used for his estimate. Price-to-earnings shows how much investors are paying for each dollar of earnings.
Another Motley Fool article from Trevor Jennewine put Palantir’s one-year target around $177 using a 50-times sales model. Jennewine also called Palantir the priciest stock in the S&P 500, at 72 times sales. He noted that CrowdStrike, which he called the best comparable on valuation, was at 39 times sales.
Michael Burry, the investor known for shorting the U.S. housing market ahead of 2008, gave another push to the bear case. Burry told GuruFocus—per a report seen on TradingView—that he hasn’t softened his bearish stance, calling Palantir a “sand castle” propped up by what he said is the AI applications story. TradingView
Palantir has lifted its 2026 revenue outlook to $7.65 billion to $7.66 billion after posting an 85% jump in first-quarter revenue to $1.63 billion in May. U.S. commercial revenue surged 133% to $595 million, and U.S. government revenue was up 84% to $687 million. CEO Alex Karp told investors, “The United States remains the center, the constant core, of our business,” in a shareholder letter. Reuters
Seeking Alpha contributor Ten Cent Capital pushed back on that number, writing that Palantir’s roughly $369 billion valuation would mean “unprecedented” federal market share and commercial growth. According to the article, a reverse discounted cash flow model — which estimates required future cash flow based on today’s price — suggested Palantir would need to hit more than $100 billion in annual revenue. Seeking Alpha
UK lawmakers turned up the heat on Palantir on Wednesday. A parliamentary committee said Britain’s reliance on the firm is an “unacceptable point of weakness” and pressed the government to look at adding a break clause to its £330 million NHS data contract. Palantir UK boss Louis Mosley shot back, calling the idea of scrapping the deal “frankly irresponsible” and saying Palantir landed the contract via an open tender. Reuters
Palantir is rejecting shareholder criticism, pushing back in its proxy. The company says the proposals are based on “misunderstandings and inaccuracies” and denies being a data or surveillance company. Palantir said it has worked with ICE since the Obama years, claiming its software is supposed to help with data quality and cut down the risk of wrong immigration enforcement. SEC
Palantir’s risk looks clear. The company may keep topping expectations if U.S. agencies and business clients keep pouring money into AI, but a slowdown in growth or government deals—or if AI stock multiples pull back—would hit hard. The stock isn’t trading on typical software valuations anymore, and bulls and bears both see it.
