PayPal Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: PYPL) heads into the end of 2025 with investors weighing a big strategic swing—its push to form “PayPal Bank”—against renewed skepticism from several Wall Street desks about the pace of its turnaround in branded checkout.
As of Dec. 19, 2025, PayPal shares are trading around $59–$60, with a market capitalization near $64 billion and a trailing P/E around 13 (data varies by vendor and timestamp, but the valuation picture is broadly consistent: PayPal is priced like a mature, slower-growth payments company).
Below is a complete, news-driven view of what’s moving PayPal stock right now—using the most current headlines, price-target updates, and published analyses available as of 19.12.2025.
PayPal stock snapshot on Dec. 19, 2025
A few numbers frame the debate around PYPL:
- Price level: roughly $59–$60 on Dec. 19. [1]
- 2025 performance: MarketBeat data indicates PYPL started 2025 near $85.35 and is down about 30% year-to-date. [2]
- 52-week range: about $55.85 to $93.25, placing shares closer to the lower end of the annual band. [3]
- Street consensus: MarketBeat lists a consensus rating of Hold and a consensus price target of $78.97 (implying sizable upside from ~$60—if execution improves). [4]
That “cheap vs. challenged” setup explains why PYPL can rally on strategic announcements—but also sell off quickly on any sign the core checkout business remains under pressure.
The biggest headline driving PYPL: PayPal applies for a U.S. bank charter
What PayPal announced
PayPal disclosed it has submitted applications to the Utah Department of Financial Institutions and the FDIC to establish “PayPal Bank,” structured as a Utah-chartered industrial loan company (ILC). [5]
The company’s stated goal is straightforward: expand small business lending and reduce reliance on partner banks in the flow of funds and settlement. Reuters notes PayPal has provided more than $30 billion in loans and capital since 2013. [6]
What “PayPal Bank” is expected to do
Across the company statement and reporting summaries, the proposed bank is expected to:
- Offer interest-bearing savings accounts
- Support small business lending more directly
- Seek direct membership with U.S. card networks to complement processing and settlement activities (while still using existing banking relationships)
- Be led by Mara McNeill as president of the proposed bank [7]
Why investors care
In plain terms, a bank charter could change PayPal’s economics in two ways:
- Funding and lending flexibility: A bank structure may improve how PayPal funds credit products (especially for SMBs), potentially improving unit economics versus “balance-sheet-light” alternatives—though it also introduces more regulatory complexity. [8]
- Platform narrative: The move signals PayPal wants to be more than a checkout button—pushing toward broader financial services at a time when fintech competition and payments commoditization remain intense. [9]
Notably, TechRadar reported shares rose roughly 1.5% in extended trading immediately following the bank announcement, suggesting the market initially read the move as strategically positive. [10]
Analyst downgrades and price-target cuts: the other force shaping PayPal stock this week
While the bank charter story adds a new growth narrative, several major analyst calls in mid-December show near-term confidence is uneven—especially around PayPal’s ability to reaccelerate branded checkout and monetize Venmo at scale.
Morgan Stanley: downgrade to Underweight, PT cut to $51
Morgan Stanley downgraded PayPal to Underweight from Equal Weight, cutting its price target to $51 from $74. The firm argued that branded checkout integration improvements will be “slow and complex,” and projected sluggish dollar growth through 2028 tied to share loss, take-rate pressure, and lack of Venmo monetization. [11]
This matters for investors because it spotlights the core question still haunting PYPL: Can PayPal stabilize and then grow the branded checkout franchise in a world where platforms and wallets are increasingly integrated and price-competitive? [12]
Bank of America: downgrade to Neutral, PT cut to $68
Bank of America downgraded PayPal to Neutral from Buy, cutting its price target to $68 from $93. In its note, BofA flagged expectations for a Q4 decline in branded checkout growth and described 2026 as an investment year, arguing risk/reward is more balanced until there’s clearer evidence the turnaround is accelerating. [13]
Jefferies: reiterates Buy, maintains $60 price target (Dec. 19, 2025)
On Dec. 19, 2025, Jefferies reaffirmed a Buy rating with a $60 price target—essentially “constructive, but cautious” given the target sits close to where shares are trading. [14]
Jefferies pointed to mixed reads from UK e-commerce data. The firm noted UK e-commerce sales accelerated to 13% YoY in November (from 6% in October), but it also cautioned that the improvement came against easier comparisons and that the two-year growth “stack” slowed—suggesting the underlying demand picture may still be soft. [15]
Importantly, the Jefferies note also referenced the broader swirl of Street views: Morgan Stanley’s downgrade, Baird’s downgrade to Neutral, and Bernstein’s Market Perform with a $76 price target. [16]
Bottom line: As of Dec. 19, the sell-side isn’t aligned. Some firms see PayPal as a value-priced cash generator that can improve; others see structural headwinds in branded checkout and limited catalysts until execution visibly turns.
PYPL stock forecast: what the Street is implying for 2026
Consensus target suggests upside—but it’s conditional
MarketBeat’s aggregated data shows:
- Consensus price target:$78.97
- Target range:$56 low to $101 high
- Consensus rating:Hold [17]
That spread is telling. PayPal isn’t being valued like a stable utility; it’s being valued like a company where the next 6–12 months of execution can plausibly shift sentiment materially in either direction.
Bull-case analysis circulating now: “cash flow + undervaluation”
A popular valuation-style argument making the rounds in December is that PayPal’s free cash flow profile is improving and that the stock may be undervalued versus its cash generation.
For example, a Barchart analysis argued PayPal’s bank move could complement strong free cash flow trends and suggested a pathway to a value case closer to $72 over the next year based on free-cash-flow yield style math. [18]
Jefferies, meanwhile, highlighted valuation metrics that screen as “cheap,” while still maintaining only a $60 target—again reflecting the market’s “show me” stance on growth durability. [19]
PayPal’s strategy backdrop: AI commerce, “agentic” checkout, and the OpenAI partnership
Even as analysts debate checkout momentum, PayPal has been actively re-positioning as an infrastructure layer for AI-assisted shopping and payments.
OpenAI + PayPal: payments inside ChatGPT
Reuters previously reported PayPal struck a partnership with OpenAI enabling ChatGPT users to buy products using PayPal’s payments platform—connecting PayPal’s merchant network to AI-driven shopping workflows. [20]
That same Reuters report also tied the OpenAI announcement to PayPal’s improved profitability posture: PayPal raised its full-year adjusted EPS outlook (at the time) and introduced its first-ever dividend. [21]
PayPal + Google: expanding wallet and checkout options
Payments Dive reported earlier in 2025 that PayPal reached a deal with Google to make PayPal available within Google Wallet and to allow PayPal-branded options for U.S. checkout, alongside a broader push that included a reported $300 million initiative to overhaul PayPal’s technology stack. [22]
This strategic arc matters because one of the core bearish critiques is that PayPal’s branded checkout must become more seamlessly embedded across ecosystems—precisely what these partnerships aim to address.
Stablecoin and crypto angle: PYUSD expands into AI infrastructure finance
PayPal’s crypto strategy is also resurfacing in late-2025 coverage as the company looks for practical settlement use cases beyond retail trading.
PYMNTS reported that PayPal is extending the role of its stablecoin PYUSD into AI infrastructure finance via a connection to USD.AI, with loans for GPUs/data centers reportedly denominated in PYUSD and an incentive program described as 4.5% on up to $1 billion in deposits starting in early 2026 (per the report’s cited sourcing). [23]
From PayPal’s own product description, PYUSD is designed to maintain a stable value and is described as fully backed by U.S. dollar deposits, Treasuries, and similar cash equivalents, with 1:1 redeemability (where available). [24]
For PYPL stockholders, the relevance is less about speculative crypto revenue and more about whether PayPal can use stablecoins to reduce settlement friction and unlock new B2B and platform workflows over time—especially as “agentic commerce” becomes a bigger theme.
Another PayPal catalyst investors may be overlooking: BNPL balance-sheet management in Europe
PayPal is also actively shaping the risk and funding profile of its buy now, pay later business.
In a Nov. 17, 2025 press release, PayPal and KKR announced a renewed agreement in which KKR-managed credit funds and accounts will purchase up to €65 billion of eligible PayPal BNPL receivables originated in several European countries through March 2028, under an up to €6 billion replenishing loan commitment framework. [25]
PayPal framed the deal as supporting a more balance-sheet-light credit approach while enabling BNPL portfolio growth. [26]
This kind of structure is important for valuation because it can influence both capital intensity and credit risk exposure, which in turn affects how investors should think about PayPal’s earnings quality and cash flow durability.
The near-term debate: what must improve for PayPal stock to break out in 2026
As of Dec. 19, 2025, the market is effectively asking PayPal to prove three things:
- Branded checkout can reaccelerate (or at least stabilize) without sacrificing economics.
Analyst downgrades this month repeatedly point to branded checkout and take-rate pressure as key structural concerns. [27] - Venmo monetization can scale beyond pockets of strength.
Morgan Stanley explicitly called out “lack of Venmo monetization” as part of the downgrade thesis. [28] - New narratives (bank charter, AI commerce, stablecoins) translate into measurable financial results.
The bank charter and AI/crypto expansion themes are headline-grabbing, but investors ultimately want clean evidence in KPIs: transaction margin dollars, branded TPV growth, and operating leverage. [29]
Bottom line: PayPal stock on Dec. 19, 2025 is a tug-of-war between “value” and “validation”
PayPal (PYPL) is ending 2025 with a stock price that many screens label “cheap” relative to historical multiples—yet the company still faces persistent skepticism about whether its core branded checkout business can regain momentum fast enough to justify a higher multiple.
The bank charter application is the most important new story because it suggests PayPal wants to own more of the financial stack—lending, deposits, and network access—rather than simply ride on top of it. [30]
But Wall Street’s mixed reaction—downgrades from Morgan Stanley and Bank of America alongside Jefferies’ Buy reiteration on Dec. 19—shows investors are not ready to “price in” a clean turnaround yet. [31]
What to watch next: regulatory progress on “PayPal Bank,” evidence of branded checkout stabilization, and whether PayPal’s AI/crypto initiatives become material contributors rather than supporting narratives. [32]
References
1. www.marketbeat.com, 2. www.marketbeat.com, 3. www.marketbeat.com, 4. www.marketbeat.com, 5. www.prnewswire.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.prnewswire.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.techradar.com, 11. www.tipranks.com, 12. www.tipranks.com, 13. www.investing.com, 14. www.investing.com, 15. www.investing.com, 16. www.investing.com, 17. www.marketbeat.com, 18. www.barchart.com, 19. www.investing.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.paymentsdive.com, 23. www.pymnts.com, 24. www.paypal.com, 25. newsroom.paypal-corp.com, 26. newsroom.paypal-corp.com, 27. www.tipranks.com, 28. www.tipranks.com, 29. www.reuters.com, 30. www.prnewswire.com, 31. www.tipranks.com, 32. www.reuters.com
