Pfizer Inc. (NYSE: PFE) is heading into 2026 with a familiar mix of strengths and stress fractures: a fortress-scale commercial footprint and one of Big Pharma’s deepest development machines—paired with fading COVID-era revenue, looming loss-of-exclusivity headwinds, and heightened political pressure on U.S. drug pricing.
As of the most recent close (Friday, Dec. 19), Pfizer stock finished around $25.19, leaving shares squarely in the “mid‑$20s” range where they’ve been pinned for much of the post-pandemic reset. [1]
What changed in December—and why investors are still arguing about Pfizer stock—comes down to three big storylines:
- Pfizer’s newly issued 2026 guidance, which points to a flat-to-down year on reported numbers. [2]
- Wall Street’s price-target debate, with some firms staying constructive on valuation while others worry Pfizer’s turnaround will take years. [3]
- Pipeline and deal news (oncology + obesity + immunology) that could reshape the growth narrative—if the science and execution land. [4]
Below is a comprehensive, up-to-date roundup of Pfizer stock news, forecasts, and analysis as of Dec. 21, 2025.
Pfizer stock price action: where PFE stands heading into the new week
Because Dec. 21, 2025 falls on a Sunday, U.S. markets are closed; the latest widely reported pricing reflects Friday’s close.
- Latest close (Dec. 19): about $25.19 [5]
- Market cap: roughly $114B (varies by feed and timestamp) [6]
In the days leading into that close, PFE was whipsawed by guidance. For example, Pfizer stock closed $26.43 on Monday, Dec. 15, before sliding after the company’s 2026 outlook arrived. [7]
Quick math: from $26.43 (Dec. 15 close) to $25.19 (Dec. 19 close) is a drop of $1.24, or about ‑4.7% for that span.
The headline driver: Pfizer’s 2026 guidance resets expectations
The most market-moving Pfizer stock catalyst this month was the company’s full-year 2026 financial guidance, released Dec. 16, 2025, alongside a revision to 2025 revenue expectations. [8]
Pfizer’s key 2026 guidance (company numbers)
Pfizer guided for:
- 2026 revenue:$59.5B to $62.5B [9]
- 2026 adjusted diluted EPS:$2.80 to $3.00 [10]
- 2025 revenue: revised to ~$62.0B [11]
- 2025 adjusted EPS: reaffirmed $3.00 to $3.15 [12]
Pfizer also spelled out what’s weighing on the top line:
- About $1.5B less revenue from COVID products in 2026 than expected in 2025
- About $1.5B of year-over-year negative impact from products losing exclusivity (LOE) [13]
The company’s attempt to steer investors toward a “cleaner” trendline shows up in one especially important line: Pfizer said it expects ~4% operational revenue growth at the midpoint excluding both COVID and LOE products. [14]
Why the market initially sold off
Reuters reported Pfizer stock fell about 5% on the day investors digested the outlook, with the company warning that the next few years will be “bumpy” due to lower COVID sales, U.S. price concessions, and patent expirations. [15]
That “bumpy” framing matters because it stretches beyond a single year: Reuters also reported Pfizer does not expect to return to revenue growth until 2029, as it works to develop and commercialize future blockbusters (including obesity assets acquired via deals). [16]
What analysts expected vs. what Pfizer guided: the “miss” that spooked investors
A big part of the stock reaction was the spread between Pfizer’s profit guide and consensus expectations.
Reuters cited LSEG data showing:
- Street EPS estimate for 2026: about $3.05
- Street revenue estimate for 2026: about $61.59B [17]
So while Pfizer’s revenue range brackets that revenue consensus, its EPS range topped out below what many analysts had modeled—fuel for the bearish case that margins and pricing pressure may bite harder than hoped. [18]
At the same time, some bulls see Pfizer “sandbagging” (guiding conservatively) so it can beat later—especially if cost cuts outpace expectations.
Wall Street forecast roundup: price targets, ratings, and what’s changing
Analyst targets on Pfizer stock remain widely dispersed—classic “high-yield turnaround” territory, where valuation looks tempting but the timeline is debated.
A concrete example: BMO reiterates Outperform
Investing.com reported that BMO Capital reiterated an Outperform rating and kept a $30 price target after the 2026 guide, describing Pfizer’s outlook as conservative and pointing to ongoing cost savings progress. [19]
That same report also summarized several other notable stances in the wake of guidance, including:
- Guggenheim: Buy, $35 target
- Bernstein: Market Perform, $30 target
- Wolfe Research: Underperform, $24 target
- BofA Securities: target cut to $27 (concern about faster COVID erosion) [20]
The core debate embedded in those targets
The disagreement isn’t really about whether Pfizer is “a real company” (it obviously is). It’s about what you’re paying for at $25-ish:
- Bears think you’re buying into years of revenue headwinds (COVID decline + LOE + pricing pressure) with execution risk layered on top. [21]
- Bulls think you’re buying cash flow + a large dividend + a portfolio of shots on goal (oncology, immunology, obesity) that could re-rate the stock if even a few hit. [22]
Reuters quoted Bernstein analyst Courtney Breen capturing the market mood bluntly: the stock may not break out of the mid‑$20s until investors believe in a durable growth trajectory. [23]
Dividend and capital allocation: Pfizer keeps paying, but buybacks stay parked
For income-focused investors, Pfizer’s dividend continues to be one of the clearest “reasons to care” about the stock.
Latest dividend declaration
Pfizer’s board declared a $0.43 quarterly dividend (first-quarter 2026 dividend), payable March 6, 2026, to shareholders of record Jan. 23, 2026—marking the company’s 349th consecutive quarterly dividend. [24]
At $25.19, that quarterly rate annualizes to $1.72 per share per year, implying a yield of roughly 6.8% (yield will move with price).
Why buybacks aren’t the focus (yet)
Pfizer’s guidance assumptions explicitly include no share repurchases in 2025 or 2026. [25]
Industry coverage has emphasized that management is prioritizing pipeline investment and business development during the LOE transition rather than “financial engineering.” [26]
Policy overhang: U.S. drug pricing pressure is not theoretical for Pfizer
Pfizer is not navigating pricing pressure in the abstract—it signed a specific deal with the Trump administration.
The Pfizer–Trump drug pricing deal
Reuters reported Pfizer agreed to lower prescription drug prices in Medicaid to levels charged in other developed countries in exchange for three years of tariff relief, and to offer “most-favored-nation” pricing on new drugs launched in the U.S. [27]
Reuters also noted Pfizer would be part of a White House direct-to-consumer website called TrumpRx, expected to launch in 2026. [28]
Broader sector context
On Dec. 19, the Associated Press reported President Trump announced additional drug price-related agreements with multiple pharmaceutical companies, reflecting sustained government attention on reducing U.S. drug costs. [29]
For Pfizer stock, the investor question becomes: How much margin compression is “already in the model,” and how much still isn’t? Reuters reported Pfizer itself warned its Medicaid discounts would contribute to price and margin compression in 2026. [30]
Pipeline and catalysts: the “how Pfizer gets its groove back” section
If you want the bull thesis for Pfizer stock in one sentence, it’s this: the pipeline plus deal-making eventually outruns the patent cliff. The company is loudly trying to make that happen.
1) Oncology catalyst: PADCEV + Keytruda posts positive Phase 3 topline results
On Dec. 17, Pfizer and Astellas announced positive topline results from an interim analysis of the Phase 3 EV‑304 / KEYNOTE‑B15 trial in muscle-invasive bladder cancer.
Key points Pfizer highlighted:
- The regimen improved event-free survival (primary endpoint) and overall survival (key secondary endpoint)
- It also improved pathologic complete response
- Pfizer and Astellas said results will be presented at a medical meeting and discussed with regulators for potential filings [31]
For investors, this matters because it reinforces Pfizer’s oncology buildout after Seagen and strengthens the case that ADCs (antibody-drug conjugates) can become meaningful growth drivers.
2) Obesity strategy: licensing another GLP‑1 candidate after prior setbacks
Pfizer struck an obesity-focused licensing deal in early December.
Reuters reported Pfizer entered an exclusive licensing agreement with YaoPharma (a Fosun subsidiary) for an experimental weight-management treatment YP05002, a GLP‑1 agonist in early-stage development. Deal terms included $150M upfront and up to $1.94B in milestones plus royalties if approved. [32]
Reuters also noted Pfizer previously discontinued two oral GLP‑1 candidates due to liver safety concerns, which helps explain why Pfizer is shopping externally. [33]
3) Immunology and AI-enabled discovery: Adaptive Biotechnologies partnership
On Dec. 15, Reuters reported Adaptive Biotechnologies signed two non-exclusive deals with Pfizer to support rheumatoid arthritis and other immune-related disease research, with Adaptive eligible for up to $890M tied to a rheumatoid arthritis asset (including upfront and milestones). Pfizer also licensed access to Adaptive’s T-cell receptor database to support AI-driven drug discovery efforts. [34]
4) COVID franchise headlines: FDA “black box” warning report
Even as COVID demand declines, regulatory perception still matters. Reuters reported the FDA has no plans to add the most serious “black box” warning to COVID vaccines, according to a Bloomberg News report; Pfizer reaffirmed the safety and efficacy of its mRNA vaccine with BioNTech. [35]
Cost cuts and restructuring: Pfizer keeps tightening the machine
Cost discipline remains the other pillar of the investment story—especially with Pfizer’s own guidance calling for a higher tax rate and higher R&D spend in 2026. [36]
Reuters reported Pfizer aims to save more than $7B annually through 2027 as it works to control costs, and that the company said it exceeded expectations for 2025 cost reductions. [37]
In Europe, Reuters also reported Pfizer planned job cuts in Switzerland as part of its multi-year cost reduction program (cutting the Swiss workforce substantially, per a Bloomberg report). [38]
On the corporate structure side, Reuters reported Pfizer will create a new hospital and biosimilars unit, which at least one analyst interpreted as a possible early step toward reshaping or disposing parts of that business. [39]
Today’s (Dec. 21) Pfizer stock headlines: what’s crossing the tape
Because it’s a Sunday, the “fresh” headlines are more about filings and recaps than market-moving corporate events.
One item dated Dec. 21: MarketBeat reported that Foster Victor Wealth Advisors LLC increased its Pfizer position during the third quarter, citing a 13F filing showing an additional 60,667 shares purchased (raising the stake to 705,258 shares). [40]
Institutional position updates like this typically don’t move a mega-cap stock on their own, but they do contribute to the broader “who’s accumulating at these levels?” narrative.
What to watch next for Pfizer stock: key dates and “tell me if this is working” signals
Here are the near-term catalysts that matter most for PFE investors:
Pfizer’s next major investor checkpoint: Feb. 3, 2026
Pfizer announced it will host a conference call with analysts on Tuesday, Feb. 3, 2026, tied to its Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Performance Report (issued that morning). [41]
That event is likely to shape sentiment around:
- The credibility of the 2026 guide
- Cost savings pacing
- Any new detail on LOE management
- Pipeline milestones and business development priorities
Ongoing catalysts: regulatory filings and clinical presentations
For Pfizer’s pipeline-driven rerating case, investors will be watching:
- When EV‑304 (PADCEV + pembrolizumab) data get presented and how regulators respond [42]
- Whether obesity and immunology partnerships translate into credible late-stage assets (the long pole in the tent)
Bottom line: is Pfizer stock a value trap or a patient investor’s setup?
Pfizer stock in late 2025 is a battle between gravity and optionality.
- Gravity: COVID erosion, LOE hits, and drug pricing pressure are real, measurable forces—and Pfizer’s own guidance reflects them. [43]
- Optionality: Pfizer is using its scale to buy and partner its way into the next cycle (oncology, obesity, immunology), while continuing to pay a large dividend and cutting costs. [44]
In other words: Pfizer may not be “dead money,” but it’s also not a one-quarter story. It’s a multi-year argument about whether today’s R&D and deal spend produces enough durable revenue before (and after) the patent cliff fully arrives.
References
1. www.marketbeat.com, 2. www.pfizer.com, 3. www.investing.com, 4. www.pfizer.com, 5. www.marketbeat.com, 6. markets.businessinsider.com, 7. www.marketwatch.com, 8. www.pfizer.com, 9. www.pfizer.com, 10. www.pfizer.com, 11. www.pfizer.com, 12. www.pfizer.com, 13. www.pfizer.com, 14. www.pfizer.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.investing.com, 20. www.investing.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.pfizer.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. www.pfizer.com, 25. www.pfizer.com, 26. www.pharmexec.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. apnews.com, 30. www.reuters.com, 31. www.pfizer.com, 32. www.reuters.com, 33. www.reuters.com, 34. www.reuters.com, 35. www.reuters.com, 36. www.pfizer.com, 37. www.reuters.com, 38. www.reuters.com, 39. www.reuters.com, 40. www.marketbeat.com, 41. www.pfizer.com, 42. www.pfizer.com, 43. www.pfizer.com, 44. www.pfizer.com
