Poland Stock Market Today: WIG20 Holds Above 3,000 After NBP Rate Cut and Ahead of Fed Decision (10 December 2025)

Warsaw, 10 December 2025 – Poland’s stock market paused for breath on Wednesday after weeks of powerful gains, as investors digested the National Bank of Poland’s latest rate cut and waited for a pivotal decision from the U.S. Federal Reserve.

The blue‑chip WIG20 index closed around 3,006 points, slipping about 0.15% from Tuesday’s strong finish at 3,010.46. ^[1] Even with the modest decline, the benchmark remains more than 30% higher than a year ago, and up roughly 37% year‑to‑date, cementing Warsaw’s status as one of Europe’s standout equity markets in 2025. ^[2]

WIG20: Small Pullback After Big Rally

Tuesday’s session saw the WIG20 surge 1.9% to 3,010.46, helped by banks and energy names, and pushing the index back firmly above the psychologically important 3,000‑point level. ^[3]

On Wednesday, trading was far calmer:

Close: 3,006.07
Change: ‑0.15%
Intraday range: 2,994 – 3,013
Volume: ~5.3 million shares, a fraction of Tuesday’s ~30 million turnover. ^[4]

By late morning, the WIG20 was down about 0.4% around 2,998 as regional stocks softened, before trimming losses into the close. ^[5]

The broader WIG index, which includes nearly all main‑market companies and captures dividends, is hovering close to record territory. It climbed to around 111,890 points on Tuesday, a roughly 60% gain over the past two years after breaking through the symbolic 100,000‑point mark for the first time in April. ^[6]

Even after the rally, valuations remain relatively moderate: Bloomberg data put WIG20’s price‑earnings ratio near 10x and price‑book around 1.6x, well below the STOXX Europe 600’s P/E of about 18x. ^[7]

Macro Backdrop: NBP Cuts Rates to 4.0% – and Then Taps the Brakes

Today’s trading comes less than a week after the Monetary Policy Council (MPC) delivered its sixth rate cut of 2025, lowering the NBP reference rate to 4.0% at its 2–3 December meeting. ^[8]

The move followed a surprisingly soft November CPI reading of 2.4% year‑on‑year, below the 2.5% mid‑point of the central bank’s 1.5–3.5% target range. ^[9]

Key messages from policymakers that equity traders are watching:

Governor Adam Glapiński signalled on 4 December that the bank is likely to move into a “wait‑and‑see” phase, calling the 4.0% rate “perfect at this point” and stressing there would be no sudden moves. ^[10]
Today, MPC member Przemysław Litwiniuk told RMF FM radio that there is only “minimal room” for further cuts unless the macro environment stays benign into March, pointing to regulated energy prices and base effects as upside inflation risks. ^[11]

Market‑friendly inflation but cautious forward guidance is broadly supportive for Polish assets: real rates remain slightly positive, helping the złoty stay firm while also lowering funding costs for heavily indebted corporates and households.

Złoty Steady, Bonds Firm as Fed Looms

Regional sentiment was dominated by tonight’s U.S. Federal Reserve meeting, where investors widely expect another 25 bps cut after a heated policy debate. ^[12]

In early afternoon trading:

The złoty firmed to about 4.225 per euro, up roughly 0.1% on the day and remaining locked in a tight 4.215–4.235 range, according to ING. ^[13]
Polish government bond yields were little changed to slightly lower on the short end, with the 2‑year note around 4.0%, reflecting expectations of a near‑term pause in the easing cycle. ^[14]

A calm FX market and contained yields helped limit downside in Warsaw stocks even as European equities edged lower overall, with the STOXX 600 off about 0.2%. ^[15]

Sectors in Focus: Banks, Energy and Miners Set the Tone

Banks still the market’s backbone

Financials remain the backbone of both the WIG20 and the U.S.‑listed EPOL ETF, which tracks Polish equities. EPOL’s top holdings include PKO Bank Polski, Pekao, Santander Bank Polska and insurer PZU, along with energy group Orlen and copper producer KGHM. ^[16]

As of today, PKO Bank Polski was trading just under PLN 80, within sight of its 52‑week high of PLN 86.46 after a year of strong profits and successful bond issuance. ^[17]
EPOL itself has delivered around 57% total return over the past 12 months, underscoring how strongly Polish bank‑heavy portfolios have re‑rated in 2025. ^[18]

Analysts at Simply Wall St note that the broader Polish market’s P/E has risen above its three‑year average, reflecting investor optimism about long‑term earnings but also reducing the “deep value” appeal that attracted bargain hunters earlier in the cycle. ^[19]

Orlen: from refiner to energy transition flagship

State‑controlled Orlen continues to be one of the key swing factors for the index. Earlier this year Bloomberg highlighted that Orlen’s share price had jumped over 40% as it boosted dividends on the back of higher profitability across its energy segments. ^[20]

Recent developments strengthening its investment case:

Orlen has secured PLN 3.5 billion from Poland’s National Recovery Plan to finance offshore wind projects in the Baltic Sea, expanding low‑ and zero‑emission power capacity. ^[21]
The company obtained an environmental decision for its Baltic East offshore wind farm (1 GW, expected start‑up in 2032), positioning it for next year’s first auction of offshore wind capacity. ^[22]
In late November, Orlen offered PLN 18.87 per share to buy out remaining minority shareholders in utility Energa, in a deal worth about PLN 709 million, in order to fully integrate the business into its transition strategy. ^[23]

In the near term, traders are also watching discussions about Poczta Polska’s potential acquisition of Orlen’s parcel‑locker business, Orlen Paczka, which could reshape the logistics and e‑commerce infrastructure ecosystem if it moves ahead. ^[24]

KGHM: mining giant taps the bond market

Copper producer KGHM Polska Miedź, another WIG20 heavyweight, has been active in the debt markets. On 8 December it placed PLN 1.6 billion in bonds, enhancing its funding flexibility. ^[25]

Despite a somewhat “strained” balance sheet – net debt sits around PLN 4.6 billion after accounting for cash – analysts note that leverage has improved versus a year ago, helped by higher metal prices and disciplined capex. ^[26]

Structural Story: Warsaw Steps Onto the Global Stage

Beyond daily moves, 2025 has been a transformative year for Poland’s capital market:

The WIG index crossed 100,000 points for the first time in April, a milestone the Warsaw Stock Exchange CEO called proof of investors’ confidence and the growth potential of listed companies. ^[27]
In October, the WSE revealed plans to seek an upgrade from “emerging” to “developed” market status by index provider MSCI within three to five years, which could attract a new universe of institutional investors. ^[28]
The Economist recently ranked Poland among the top 10 economies of 2025, citing 3.8% GDP growth and strong stock market performance, even if lingering inflation and a small uptick in unemployment kept it shy of the very top positions. ^[29]

European media have also noted that Warsaw is now among the best‑performing stock markets globally this year, part of a broader trend of European exchanges punching above their weight in 2025. ^[30]

Fresh Forecasts: “Window of Opportunity” – But Not Without Risks

A wave of analysis released over the past week sets the tone for how investors see Poland going into 2026.

European Financial Congress: Stable inflation, solid growth

An article drawing on economists from the European Financial Congress (EKF), published today, describes Poland as entering a period of “economic stability” with solid growth and inflation within target, but warns that this is a crucial time to repair public finances and secure structural reforms. ^[31]

Key structural themes highlighted there and in recent policy discussions:

Ongoing work on a merger between Bank Pekao and insurer PZU, which would consolidate state‑controlled financial powerhouses. ^[32]
JSW, the coal and steel group, focusing on liquidity and restructuring, reflecting the challenges of decarbonisation for heavy industry. ^[33]

ING and other houses: a “Goldilocks” scenario

Analysts at ING argue that Poland is close to a “Goldilocks” macro mix: inflation at or slightly below target, decent GDP growth, and policy rates still comfortably positive in real terms. They see scope for the reference rate to drift towards 3.0–3.5% over the coming years, assuming inflation stays around 3% and fiscal policy does not overheat the economy. ^[34]

NBP’s own projections and recent commentary from Governor Glapiński and other council members suggest:

Inflation is expected to remain within the 1.5–3.5% target band through at least 2027, with the bank’s November forecast putting it at about 2.9% in 2026 and 2.5% in 2027. ^[35]
Further rate cuts are possible but limited, as policymakers worry about a high budget deficit and regulated energy prices that could push inflation back up in early 2026. ^[36]

Valuations: Discount vs. Developed Europe is Narrowing

From a global asset‑allocation perspective, Poland still trades at a valuation discount versus developed European peers:

EPOL’s holdings trade at about 9x trailing earnings with a dividend yield near 4%. ^[37]
A dedicated valuation tracker using EPOL as a proxy estimates the Polish market P/E around 12.1x, close to the top of its 5‑year “fair value” band (8.1–12.3x) but still well below the 18.2x P/E on a broad STOXX 600 ETF. ^[38]

However, some analysts caution that the “easy money” has already been made: a Seeking Alpha piece in August noted that Polish stocks, via EPOL, were up around 60% year‑to‑date, prompting a downgrade from “buy” to “hold” as the deep‑value thesis faded. ^[39]

In other words, Poland still looks cheaper than much of Western Europe, but not undeniably cheap anymore – making future returns more dependent on earnings growth and continued policy discipline.

What Today’s Session Means for Investors

Putting it all together, today’s modest dip in the WIG20 looks more like consolidation than the start of a reversal:

Momentum remains positive
- The index is still up by roughly a third over the past year and comfortably above 3,000, even after a volatile rate‑cut cycle. ^[40]
Policy tailwinds are softening, not reversing
- With the NBP signalling a cautious pause after cutting to 4.0%, the market loses some of the adrenaline from repeated rate cuts but gains a more predictable backdrop for 2026. ^[41]
Structural upgrades are still in play
- The WIG’s 100,000‑point breakthrough and WSE’s ambition to join the “developed market” club are medium‑term catalysts that could bring new flows into Polish equities, especially if EU funds and domestic reforms stay on track. ^[42]
Risks investors are watching
- Regulated energy tariffs in early 2026, fiscal slippage, and any slowdown in Europe’s broader recovery could all challenge the bullish narrative. The Fed’s rate path – and how it impacts global risk appetite and the dollar – is another key variable. ^[43]

For now, though, the Polish stock market on 10 December 2025 looks like a market catching its breath – not one running out of steam.

Looking Ahead: Key Dates and Themes to Watch

Investors in Polish equities and instruments such as EPOL and WIG20 futures will be watching:

Tonight’s Fed decision and press conference, which will shape global risk sentiment and potentially the złoty’s path. ^[44]
NBP’s March 2026 projection round, which Litwiniuk flagged as a possible moment for revisiting the rate path if inflation behaves. ^[45]
Index rebalancings and further additions of growth companies to the WSE’s flagship indices, as outlined in GPW Benchmark’s 2025 index calendar. ^[46]
Progress on state‑sector restructurings, including Poczta Polska–Orlen Paczka, the proposed PZU–Pekao tie‑up, and JSW’s restructuring plan. ^[47]

As of today, the message from Warsaw is simple: the Poland stock market remains one of 2025’s quiet stars – less in the headlines than Wall Street, but delivering world‑class returns for investors who have stayed the course.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always do your own research or consult a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions.