TORONTO, March 9, 2026, 08:40 EDT
Futures pointed to a weaker open for Canada’s main stock index on Monday, slipping roughly 0.92% ahead of the session. Brent crude had spiked to $119.50 a barrel—the highest level seen since the middle of 2022—as the conflict with Iran rattled global markets.
It’s significant: Canada’s energy-heavy benchmark hit an all-time high of 34,541.27 on March 2, but by Friday, it had dropped to 33,083.72. Traders shifted their view, seeing the oil rally as an inflation headache rather than a straightforward boost for producers’ cash. The TSX lost 3.7% for the week—its steepest decline in over a month.
Pre-open activity dominated the exchange, with continuous trading not set to kick off until 9:30 a.m. ET. Traders, for now, were watching ahead to U.S. consumer price data expected Wednesday, March 11, then Canada’s jobs release coming up Friday, March 13. The Bank of Canada’s rate decision lands on March 18. The central bank keeps its policy rate parked at 2.25%.
Weakness wasn’t confined to Toronto. Wall Street futures slid more than 1%, with the VIX volatility index spiking to levels last seen in April 2025. “Markets now saw a ‘vastly increased chance’ of recession as inflation risks climbed,” said Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG. Reuters
Oil prices eased off earlier peaks after French officials flagged that G7 finance ministers are set to weigh an emergency reserves release. On top of that, traders pointed to Saudi Aramco putting over 4 million barrels up for grabs in rarely seen tenders. UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo, though, called any reserve draw “a drop in the ocean” if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for an extended stretch. Reuters
The split is key for the TSX. Oil producers found some footing as crude climbed, but gold slipped 1.2% and base metals felt the squeeze from that firmer dollar—a tough setup for the miners. J.P.Morgan moved First Quantum Minerals down to underweight from overweight, and also downgraded Lundin Mining to underweight from neutral. “A highly liquid asset,” Staunovo noted, gold tends to get sold off first in market stress. Reuters
Financials faced a homegrown problem. Reuters obtained meeting minutes revealing that Canada’s banking regulator cautioned bank leaders back in October about the risk of blanket condo appraisals potentially violating federal mortgage rules. Not long after, Royal Bank of Canada updated language on its pre-construction mortgage webpage. RBC said it had coordinated with regulators to stay within the expected guidelines.
This isn’t just theoretical: IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva flagged that if oil jumps 10% and stays elevated for most of the year, that alone tacks another 40 basis points onto global inflation. (A basis point equals one-hundredth of a percentage point.) Her guidance for policymakers? “Think of the unthinkable.” Reuters
A sharp drop in oil might be enough to snap the trend. More Saudi supply or a joint reserves release could cool crude, giving Canadian energy stocks some room to prop up the index. But if shipping snarls persist and oil stays expensive, banks, industrials, and consumer stocks—those sensitive to rates—may keep feeling the pressure, even if energy names stay resilient.
