London, May 15, 2026, 18:18 BST
- Brent and WTI rose as U.S.-Iran tensions undercut hopes for a quick reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
- Also in the mix were lower U.S. crude and gasoline inventories, as traders kept an eye on tighter global supplies and Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries.
- Prediction markets still aren’t pricing in a fast recovery for shipping through Hormuz.
Oil rose Friday, with Brent near $109 a barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate just below $105, after fresh comments from Washington and Tehran cooled hopes for a quick deal to restore regular shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Earlier in the session, Brent had leapt more than 3% and WTI climbed as much as 4%, Reuters reported.
This matters: the Strait of Hormuz—the narrow channel linking Gulf suppliers to the world—has become the market’s main price trigger. Reuters said that before the conflict, about 20% of global oil and LNG shipments moved through it.
Headline risk has stopped being the story. This week, the International Energy Agency said global supply fell by 1.8 million barrels per day in April, and worldwide inventories—including oil at sea—declined by 250 million barrels over March and April.
President Donald Trump said his patience with Iran was running out and claimed he and China’s Xi Jinping had an understanding that Tehran should reopen the strait. China, though, has not said publicly that it would press Iran to do so. On the other side, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said there is “no trust” toward the U.S., while still leaving open the possibility of talks—provided Washington shows it’s serious. Reuters
Crude kept a risk premium, the extra traders build in when they fear supply disruptions. Vandana Hari, who runs Vanda Insights, said focus had swung back to the stalemate and the closed strait, along with what she called a “tail risk of renewed military escalation,” Reuters reported. Reuters
Traffic on the water showed some signs of life, but it did little to calm the market. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said vessel crossings reached 30 between Wednesday night and Thursday, a figure Reuters said is sharply below the pre-war average of 140 daily sailings. PVM’s Tamas Varga said sentiment was responding more to the rise in crossings than to actual oil supply.
U.S. inventory data gave bulls some support. The Energy Information Administration said U.S. commercial crude stocks fell by 4.3 million barrels in the week ended May 8, to 452.9 million barrels. Gasoline inventories also declined, down 4.1 million barrels and now 5% below the five-year average for this period.
WTI, the U.S. benchmark, posted a larger percentage gain than Brent, suggesting traders are focused on tighter domestic supplies ahead of the summer driving season. Brent is the global benchmark, while WTI reflects U.S. crude priced at Cushing, Oklahoma.
Supply fears were not confined to the Gulf. Reuters reported that Ukraine has doubled strikes against Russian refineries since the year began, with drones knocking out about 700,000 barrels per day of refining capacity from January through May. Saxo Bank’s Ole Hansen said crude had pushed higher, pointing to stalled momentum after the Trump-Xi summit and Ukraine’s continuing refinery attacks.
Prediction markets were not pricing in a fast fix. On Kalshi, the odds of Hormuz traffic returning to normal before Aug. 1 were 37%, rising to 48% for before Sept. 1 and 60% for before Oct. 1. At Polymarket, traders saw just a 6% chance that flows would be restored by the end of May.
Oil bulls could be hit by a sharp reversal if shipping traffic recovers, negotiations resume, or high prices do more damage to demand. The IEA expects global oil demand to contract by 420,000 barrels per day in 2026, with the steepest decline in the second quarter.
Prices are rising on scarcity right now. Capital Economics says Brent could jump to at least $140 a barrel if the strait remains closed and OECD stockpiles keep falling at April’s pace. In its most dramatic scenario, Brent stays near $150 through 2027.
