Polymarket’s Youngest Billionaire vs. a Divided Fed: How Prediction Markets Are Pricing a December 2025 Rate Cut

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As of November 30, 2025, prediction markets led by Polymarket are putting sky‑high odds on a December Fed rate cut—just as its 27‑year‑old founder becomes the world’s youngest self‑made billionaire and the Federal Reserve faces one of its most divided meetings in years.

Key takeaways

Shayne Coplan, the 27‑year‑old founder of Polymarket, became the world’s youngest self‑made billionaire after a $2 billion strategic investment from New York Stock Exchange owner Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), valuing Polymarket at about $8–9 billion. ^[1]
Polymarket, once fined and effectively banned from the U.S. by the CFTC in 2022, has now secured regulatory approval for a fully compliant U.S. return via intermediated access, ending a nearly four‑year prohibition. ^[2]
As of November 30, 2025, Polymarket’s “Fed decision in December” market showed around 88% odds of a 25‑basis‑point Fed rate cut, backed by more than $25 million in trading volume. ^[3]
Wall Street is sharply divided: Fed minutes show “strongly differing views” on cutting in December, while banks like J.P. Morgan and market tools like CME FedWatch now imply odds of roughly 80–85% for a cut. ^[4]
The December 9–10 FOMC meeting is being described as a “rare, genuinely suspenseful” one where even policymakers are unsure of the data—and of each other. ^[5]

A Gen Z founder at the center of global rate‑cut speculation

Until a few months ago, Shayne Coplan was a niche name in crypto and prediction‑market circles. Now, thanks to a massive Wall Street deal and a suddenly pivotal Federal Reserve meeting, he has become one of the most talked‑about figures in modern finance.

In October, Intercontinental Exchange (ICE)—the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange—announced it would invest up to $2 billion in Polymarket, valuing the platform at roughly $8 billion pre‑money and about $9 billion post‑money. ^[6] That deal pushed Coplan’s estimated net worth to around $1 billion, making the 1998‑born New Yorker the youngest self‑made billionaire tracked by the Bloomberg Billionaires Index and Forbes. ^[7]

Polymarket itself has exploded in size. ICE’s own press release calls it “the world’s largest prediction market”, with billions of dollars of predictions placed in 2025 across politics, business, culture and sports. ^[8] During the 2024 U.S. presidential election alone, users reportedly wagered more than $3.2 billion on the platform’s markets. ^[9]

It’s a remarkable trajectory for a founder who dropped out of NYU, got into Ethereum via its early coin offering, and built Polymarket around the idea that prices from informed bettors often forecast the future better than polls or pundits. ^[10]

The twist? The same platform that made Coplan a billionaire is now one of the clearest public gauges of whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in December—a decision that could shape everything from mortgage bills to crypto prices in 2026.

Inside the ICE–Polymarket deal that minted a new billionaire

ICE’s October 7 announcement signaled much more than just another big tech investment. Under the terms of the agreement, ICE will: ^[11]

Invest up to $2 billion in cash into Polymarket,
Take a significant minority stake at roughly an $8 billion pre‑money valuation,
Become the global distributor of Polymarket’s event‑driven data to institutional investors, and
Collaborate on tokenization initiatives, using blockchain rails to represent more assets as digital tokens.

ICE CEO Jeff Sprecher framed the deal as pairing a centuries‑old market institution with a “forward‑thinking, revolutionary company pioneering change within the DeFi space,” while Coplan cast it as a “major step in bringing prediction markets into the financial mainstream.” ^[12]

At the same time, Polymarket has been working to clear a regulatory overhang dating back to 2022. That year, the CFTC ordered its operator to pay a $1.4 million fine, wind down non‑compliant markets, and cease operating an unregistered swap venue in the U.S. ^[13]

Fast‑forward to late November 2025, and the narrative has flipped:

The CFTC has now approved Polymarket for intermediated U.S. access, allowing Americans to trade event contracts via futures commission merchants and traditional brokerages. ^[14]
The move ends a near four‑year prohibition on the platform operating in the U.S. market. ^[15]
Polymarket is positioning itself to compete directly with regulated rivals like Kalshi, just as Wall Street giants—from ICE to Robinhood and Susquehanna via their LedgerX deal—rush into the same space. ^[16]

Put together, the ICE deal plus CFTC sign‑off have transformed Polymarket from a regulatory headache into a front‑row participant in mainstream finance—right as the biggest macro question of the year lands on its home turf: Will the Fed cut rates in December?

A December Fed cut the Fed itself is unsure about

The December 9–10, 2025 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) was always going to be important. But after the Fed’s October decision to trim rates by 25 basis points to a 3.75%–4.00% range, it has turned into something much rarer: a meeting where even insiders admit they can’t confidently handicap the outcome. ^[17]

Minutes from that October gathering revealed a deeply split committee:

Many participants favored lowering the target range again soon, but some said they would have been just as happy to hold rates steady. ^[18]
Policymakers were working with “stale” or missing data after a prolonged government shutdown delayed key jobs and inflation releases. ^[19]
Officials expressed “strongly differing views” about whether inflation risks or labor‑market weakness should take priority heading into year‑end. ^[20]

That schism is exactly what Fortune described when it said “Wall Street is on tenterhooks” over a “rare, genuinely suspenseful” December meeting, noting that the committee is unsure of both the quality of its data and of one another’s tolerance for risk. ^[21]

The Wall Street Journal, via reporting later syndicated globally, added more detail: Powell’s closest allies, including New York Fed President John Williams and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, have effectively given him political cover to move ahead with a cut even if it brings multiple public dissents. ^[22]

That leaves Powell with two unattractive choices:

Cut in December and signal a pause (“cut then hold”), calming markets but angering hawks; or
Hold in December and reassess in January, prolonging uncertainty and public infighting in hopes of receiving better data.

Either way, the decision will be made against a backdrop of slowing job growth but still‑elevated inflation—the classic recipe for what economists call stagflation‑like cross‑currents. ^[23]

Wall Street is split—even as the odds converge

If the Fed is divided, Wall Street is not exactly unified either.

On one side:

J.P. Morgan has now shifted its base case to a 25‑basis‑point cut in December, reversing an earlier call that the Fed would wait until January. The bank cited recent “Fedspeak”—particularly from Powell allies—as tipping the odds toward a move at the upcoming meeting. ^[24]
Goldman Sachs has suggested the delayed September jobs report may have “sealed” a December cut, given limited additional data due before the meeting. ^[25]
Market indicators such as the CME FedWatch Tool show probabilities for a December cut swinging from around 20–30% earlier in the month to roughly 75–85% by late November, according to analyses from Investopedia and several market‑strategy notes. ^[26]

On the other side:

The same Fed minutes that excited doves also show many officials arguing against another cut this year, warning that inflation—especially in services—remains too high. ^[27]
Boston Fed President Susan Collins, a 2025 voter, has publicly cautioned against easing too quickly, pointing to ongoing affordability pressures and the risk that companies may pass tariff‑related costs on to consumers. ^[28]
Other Fed officials have warned that cutting in response to equity volatility could reward risky behavior on Wall Street, even as some strategists now argue that this year’s AI‑driven market swings themselves risk forcing the Fed’s hand. ^[29]

On November 30, 2025, a fresh Reuters “Week Ahead” piece summed up the stand‑off: investors are now watching AI earnings, delayed economic data and the Fed’s December decision in tandem, with the S&P 500 up about 16% year‑to‑date but traders acutely sensitive to any change in the rate‑cut narrative. ^[30]

Prediction markets go all‑in: Polymarket’s 88% December cut odds

If Wall Street is conflicted, Polymarket’s traders are not.

As of the afternoon of November 30, a widely cited snapshot from crypto exchange MEXC—pulling live data from Polymarket—showed: ^[31]

88% probability of a 25‑basis‑point Fed rate cut in December,
Backed by more than $25 million in trading volume on that specific outcome,
Within a broader “Fed decision in December” market whose overall volume has surpassed $190 million across all scenarios. ^[32]

Other crypto and macro outlets report similar numbers, with headlines noting Polymarket odds surging to 87–88% and linking those moves to rallies in Bitcoin and crypto‑linked equities. ^[33]

Zoom out, and Polymarket’s dashboard shows a whole constellation of Fed‑related markets:

“Fed decision in December?” (exact rate outcome at the December meeting), ^[34]
“Fed rate hike in 2025?” (now trading at just around 1–3%, effectively pricing a hike this year as almost impossible), ^[35]
“How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?” (markets debating the pace and depth of easing beyond this year). ^[36]

Polymarket has also become a barometer for broader macro sentiment: markets on U.S. recession odds, inflation paths, Bitcoin price levels and even specific geopolitical flashpoints all feed into the same ecosystem of probabilistic signals. ^[37]

Crucially, prediction markets aren’t crystal balls; they’re crowd‑sourced, incentive‑weighted forecasts. As the MEXC piece itself notes, Polymarket “reflects current consensus rather than guaranteed outcomes,” and odds can swing drastically with new data or Fed commentary. ^[38]

Still, on November 30, the signal is loud: Polymarket traders overwhelmingly expect a December cut.

From fringe to front page: prediction markets go mainstream

Polymarket’s starring role in the December rate‑cut debate is part of a broader shift.

Over the last year:

A federal appeals court cleared the way for regulated election markets, boosting rival platform Kalshi and indicating that prediction markets can sit inside mainstream U.S. financial regulation rather than purely in gambling law. ^[39]
The CFTC ended its enforcement standoff with Polymarket and signed off on its intermediated U.S. access, effectively re‑opening the door to U.S. users under a supervised exchange structure. ^[40]
ICE, Robinhood, Susquehanna and other large players launched or expanded their own prediction‑adjacent offerings, sometimes via acquisitions like LedgerX, which is being repurposed as a prediction‑friendly derivatives venue. ^[41]

Even the media spotlight has intensified. A 60 Minutes segment airing around the turn of the month profiled Coplan and Polymarket, highlighting stories like an anonymous “French whale” who reportedly made more than $80 million betting on Donald Trump’s 2024 victory, and positioning prediction markets as a new way for the public to read real‑time probabilities on politics and the economy. ^[42]

It’s a dramatic evolution for an industry that, only a few years ago, was fighting to prove it wasn’t simply online gambling with a crypto twist.

What a December cut would actually mean

So suppose Polymarket’s traders are right and the Fed does cut in December. What then?

For borrowers

A December Fed cut would lower the federal funds target range, which directly affects short‑term borrowing costs like credit cards and some adjustable‑rate loans. But the impact on 30‑year fixed‑rate mortgages is far less straightforward.

Recent history shows that mortgage rates can rise even after the Fed cuts, especially if bond markets worry that easier policy will reignite inflation. An analysis from Investopedia notes that after earlier cuts in 2024–2025, mortgage rates actually climbed rather than fell, driven more by 10‑year Treasury yields and inflation expectations than by the Fed’s headline move. ^[43]

For now, average U.S. mortgage rates hover in the mid‑6% range, off their 2025 highs but not back to the ultra‑low levels of the pandemic era. Even if the Fed cuts in December, most forecasts see only gradual easing from here. ^[44]

For stocks and AI‑heavy tech

Equity markets have already front‑run a dovish outcome. The S&P 500 is up about 16% in 2025, and a Reuters “Week Ahead” piece on November 30 emphasized that traders are now laser‑focused on AI profitability, delayed data and the December Fed decision to justify those gains. ^[45]

A cut could:

Support rate‑sensitive sectors like small caps, REITs and housing‑related stocks,
Relieve pressure on stretched AI valuations—if investors believe lower rates extend the runway for big R&D bets,
But also raise concerns about why the Fed is cutting: if it looks like a response to real economic weakness, risk assets could still wobble.

For crypto

The MEXC analysis explicitly framed Polymarket’s 88% odds of a December cut as a “Bitcoin catalyst”, arguing that lower rates historically boost risk appetite and weaken the dollar, both supportive for crypto. ^[46]

Yet the relationship is hardly one‑directional:

Crypto booms have occurred in both easy and tight monetary regimes,
Real (inflation‑adjusted) rates and regulatory news often matter more than the headline Fed move, and
If a cut signals serious economic trouble, it could hurt risk assets even as nominal rates fall.

As always, none of this guarantees how any specific asset will trade—and nothing here should be taken as financial advice.

November 30, 2025: why today matters in the narrative

When you zoom in on the news dated November 30, 2025, it looks like a hinge point in the story:

Polymarket odds for a December cut hit about 88%, with more than $25 million wagered on that single outcome, according to MEXC’s market snapshot. ^[47]
Reuters’ “Wall St Week Ahead” piece highlighted that U.S. stocks had just bounced from their biggest pullback since April, driven largely by renewed conviction in a December rate cut, even as investors fretted over AI valuations and Bitcoin’s latest slump. ^[48]
In Washington, White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett said he would be “happy to serve” as the next Fed chair if chosen, after reports that he had become the frontrunner to replace Jerome Powell when his term ends—injecting an extra layer of political uncertainty into both the December decision and the Fed’s 2026 path. ^[49]

At the same time, Polymarket’s own non‑Fed markets—on everything from a Russia–Ukraine ceasefire by November 30, to whether Trump would talk to Putin by that date, to whether “Nothing Ever Happens: November” (a catch‑all event basket) would resolve as calm—were reaching their own conclusions, reinforcing the platform’s image as a kind of global dashboard of tail risks. ^[50]

In other words, by the end of November:

Prediction markets, Wall Street banks and Fed‑funds futures had largely converged on a December cut,
Fed officials, the minutes and political currents remained sharply divided, and
A once‑fringe crypto platform, now backed by the owner of the NYSE, was acting as a high‑visibility scoreboard for the biggest central‑bank decision of the year.

What to watch next

Looking ahead from November 30, 2025, three threads will define this story:

The December 9–10 FOMC decision
- Does the Fed follow the market and cut, or defy it and hold?
- If it cuts, does Powell also signal a long pause—or leave the door open to further easing? ^[51]
How accurate Polymarket’s odds turn out to be
- An 88% probability doesn’t mean certainty, but if the market nails both the decision and the vote split (including possible dissents), it will strengthen the case for prediction‑market data as a standard macro input for investors and policymakers. ^[52]
The regulatory and political backdrop
- CFTC oversight is still evolving, and state‑level rulings on sports and event contracts (including recent hits to Kalshi) show that prediction markets remain legally contested terrain. ^[53]
- The looming question of who will chair the Fed after Powell—with candidates like Kevin Hassett publicly in the mix—could reshape expectations for rates in 2026 and beyond. ^[54]

For now, though, the scoreboard as of 30.11.2025 is clear: Polymarket, Wall Street and Fed‑funds futures all say a December cut is more likely than not—while the people actually casting the votes are still arguing about it.

In that gap between priced expectations and human uncertainty sits Shayne Coplan’s newly minted fortune, and the future of prediction markets as a serious tool for reading the world’s most important decisions.