RBOB gasoline futures — the U.S. benchmark contract that traders and fuel buyers watch to gauge wholesale gasoline costs — fell again on Tuesday, December 16, 2025, extending a late‑year downswing that’s also pulling pump prices lower across much of the country.
By early afternoon in Europe, benchmark RBOB was trading around $1.71 per gallon, down about 1.3% on the day, and sitting right at fresh 52‑week lows. [1]
That weakness in gasoline futures is closely tied to the broader energy complex: crude oil slipped to multi‑month lows on renewed “glut” worries and hopes that Russia‑Ukraine peace negotiations could eventually loosen constraints on Russian supply, while fresh signals of softer Chinese economic momentum raised demand concerns. [2]
Gasoline (RBOB) price today: the latest benchmark levels
Market pricing on December 16 shows RBOB gasoline under pressure across multiple market data feeds:
- RBOB gasoline: $1.71/gal (as of 13:17 GMT), -1.32% on the day, with the session printing a new 52‑week low near $1.71 and a 52‑week high near $2.41 (June 23, 2025). FT notes commodity prices are delayed. [3]
- RBOB gasoline (real-time derived feed): around $1.7097/gal at 08:27:24, down about 1.30%, with a day’s range roughly $1.7069 to $1.7286 and a 52‑week range of $1.7069 to $2.4050. [4]
Why this matters: RBOB futures are not the same thing as the price you pay at a retail station, but they are a key input into wholesale gasoline costs and refinery/marketing economics — so sustained moves here often show up at the pump with a lag.
What’s driving RBOB lower on Dec. 16, 2025?
Gasoline is getting hit by a combination of macro forces (crude and global risk sentiment) and fuel‑specific seasonal dynamics.
1) Crude oil weakness is dragging refined products with it
On Tuesday, Reuters reported Brent falling below $60 a barrel (the lowest since May) with WTI near the mid‑$50s, weighed down by expectations of oversupply and growing confidence among some traders that a Russia‑Ukraine deal could eventually loosen the flow of Russian barrels. [5]
When crude falls quickly, gasoline futures often follow — even if the immediate physical gasoline market isn’t suddenly awash in supply — because the futures curve reprices lower feedstock costs and weaker demand expectations.
2) Peace-deal optimism raises the “more barrels, bigger glut” narrative
Reuters also highlighted how the market is actively debating the supply impact of diplomacy. A Rystad analyst told Reuters that Brent dipping below $60 reflected the market assessing whether additional Russian volumes could become available and “oversupply the market further.” [6]
That theme matters for RBOB because gasoline prices rarely fight a sustained crude drawdown unless refinery constraints or demand spikes become severe.
3) China demand worries are back in focus — even as stockpiling rises
On the demand side, Reuters pointed to soft Chinese data (factory output growth slowing and retail sales growth weakening) as another factor pressuring oil. [7]
At the same time, a separate Reuters piece noted China accelerated crude stockpiling in November as imports outpaced refining, supported by weaker global oil prices — a dynamic that can cut both ways: stockpiling can provide a “floor” for crude demand, but slower refining throughput can still signal end‑use weakness. [8]
4) Winter seasonality is capping gasoline demand — and supplies are improving
In the U.S., gasoline demand is typically far lower in winter than summer, and refineries often come out of fall maintenance with improving supply.
GasBuddy said holiday travelers may find relief at the pump this year, pointing to maintenance winding down and rising supplies alongside winter’s softer demand. GasBuddy expects the national average on Christmas Day near $2.79/gal, below last year. [9]
AAA’s fuel page similarly points to sluggish demand and cheaper winter‑blend gasoline as contributors to falling retail prices, while crude has been “on the lower side around $60 a barrel.” [10]
The retail gasoline picture today: where pump prices stand on Dec. 16
While RBOB is a wholesale futures benchmark, U.S. drivers care about what’s happening at the pump — and that trend has been moving the same direction.
AAA’s dashboard shows today’s national average at $2.907 per gallon as of 12/16/25. [11]
GasBuddy’s Christmas outlook goes further, projecting $2.79/gal nationally on Christmas Day, and arguing that rising supply plus low winter demand are keeping a lid on prices unless unexpected refinery problems or geopolitical disruptions flare up. [12]
Outlook: what forecasts and analyst calls are saying right now
Official U.S. forecast: EIA sees gasoline near $3.00/gal in 2026
In an EIA press release tied to its December Short‑Term Energy Outlook, the agency forecast:
- Retail gasoline: about $3.11/gal in 2025 and $3.00/gal in 2026
- Brent crude: about $69/bbl in 2025 and $55/bbl in 2026
EIA also expects global inventories to keep rising through 2026, a backdrop that typically pressures crude — and, by extension, gasoline. [13]
Refining margins: crack spreads may cool near-term, but EIA still sees upside risks
The same December outlook also flags an important nuance for gasoline traders: even if crude is sliding, refinery margins (“crack spreads”) don’t necessarily collapse.
In the December 2025 STEO, EIA said it expected lower crack spreads in December and 1Q26 than in its prior forecast, as maintenance ends and production normalizes — but it still expects tightness in global petroleum product markets and lower crude prices to support higher refinery margins in 2026. [14]
EIA also explicitly highlighted geopolitical risks — including attacks on Russian refineries and sanctions‑related trade flow changes — as a continuing source of upside risk for refined product markets. [15]
Street/market calls: 2026 “glut” is the baseline, but price forecasts diverge
Reuters collected a range of market views on Dec. 16:
- A PVM Oil Associates analyst said the “grind lower” could continue into 2026’s expected glut, but predicted Brent would not break below $55 before year‑end. [16]
- Barclays analysts expect Brent to average $65/bbl in 2026, arguing an expected surplus is already largely priced into the forward curve. [17]
For RBOB and U.S. gasoline, the takeaway is straightforward: a crude-led bear trend is pressuring gasoline futures today, but any surprise tightening in refined products — from refinery outages, sanctions disruptions, or unplanned downtime — can still cause sharp rallies even in a soft crude environment.
What to watch next: the near-term catalysts for RBOB gasoline
If you’re tracking “gasoline price today” headlines — whether for budgeting, procurement, or market positioning — the next few triggers are likely to matter most:
- Russia‑Ukraine negotiation headlines and sanctions signals
Anything that changes expectations around Russian export flows can reprice crude quickly, and gasoline typically follows. [18] - China demand indicators
Weak activity data pressures oil; changes in refining throughput and stockpiling can reshape sentiment about how “real” demand is versus opportunistic buying on dips. [19] - Refinery operations and product tightness
Even with crude cheaper, gasoline can jump if outages hit or if product inventories tighten — particularly in regional markets. - Holiday-period retail demand vs. winter-blend supply
GasBuddy and AAA both see conditions supportive of lower pump prices into late December, but both also flag the potential for volatility if surprises hit supply. [20]
Bottom line
As of Tuesday, Dec. 16, 2025, RBOB gasoline futures are hovering near $1.71 per gallon, down roughly 1%–1.5%on the day and pressing fresh 52‑week lows in some feeds. [21]
The decline is being driven less by a single gasoline‑only shock and more by a broad energy-market repricing: crude is sliding on renewed oversupply expectations, peace‑deal optimism, and fresh questions about demand — especially out of China. [22]
For consumers, the same trend is already showing up at the pump: AAA lists the U.S. national average at $2.907/galtoday, and GasBuddy projects $2.79/gal on Christmas Day.
References
1. markets.ft.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. markets.ft.com, 4. www.investing.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.wkok.com, 10. gasprices.aaa.com, 11. gasprices.aaa.com, 12. www.wkok.com, 13. www.eia.gov, 14. www.eia.gov, 15. www.eia.gov, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.wkok.com, 21. markets.ft.com, 22. www.reuters.com
