Recursion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ: RXRX) is back in the market’s spotlight on December 18, 2025, after a sharp move higher driven by fresh Wall Street optimism and a growing pile of real-world “proof points” for the company’s AI-driven drug discovery thesis.
The setup is classic biotech: a clinical readout starts the spark, an analyst upgrade adds oxygen, and the stock begins to trade more on “what this could become” than “what this is today.” On the tape, RXRX has recently traded around $4.68 with a market cap near $2.1 billion, following a double-digit percentage jump in the prior session. [1]
Below is a comprehensive, publication-ready breakdown of the latest RXRX stock news, the key clinical catalyst (REC-4881 in FAP), the JPMorgan upgrade, and the range of forecasts and analyst targets investors are using to argue about what Recursion is worth right now.
What’s driving Recursion Pharmaceuticals (RXRX) stock on Dec. 18, 2025
The immediate catalyst behind the renewed buzz is a rating upgrade from JPMorgan, which moved Recursion from Neutral to Overweight and raised its price target to $11 (from $10). [2]
That upgrade matters for two reasons:
- It reframes REC-4881—Recursion’s MEK1/2 inhibitor being studied in a rare pre-cancer condition—as a potential blockbuster (yes, even in a rare disease, if pricing and expansion pathways work).
- It reinforces the market’s bigger question: is Recursion’s AI platform producing repeatable drug wins, or is this a one-hit clinical wonder?
Trading activity reflected the jolt in sentiment. Investing.com’s historical data shows Dec. 17 volume far above typical recent sessions (tens of millions of shares changing hands). [3]
The JPMorgan upgrade: why REC-4881 is the center of the bull case
According to coverage summarized by Investing.com, JPMorgan’s thesis leans heavily on the commercial upside of REC-4881 in familial adenomatous polyposis (FAP)—including a peak U.S. sales view exceeding $1 billion and an internally modeled probability of success. [4]
JPMorgan also pointed to Recursion’s broader pipeline progress (including oncology asset REC-617) and to the company’s partnership track record, which management has said has generated $500+ million in milestone and upfront payments to date. [5]
This is the heart of the “platform bet” argument:
- A single drug with strong data can move a biotech stock.
- A second and third drug with credible signals starts to justify a platform premium—especially in “TechBio,” where investors want evidence that AI isn’t just a PowerPoint aesthetic.
REC-4881 and the TUPELO trial: what the data actually showed
Recursion’s lead clinical story right now is REC-4881, an oral allosteric MEK1/2 inhibitor being studied in FAP, a genetic condition that leads to abnormal polyp growth and can dramatically raise colorectal cancer risk.
In a company-reported update, REC-4881 (4 mg once daily) delivered:
- 75% of evaluable patients showing reductions in total polyp burden after 12 weeks
- a median 43% reduction after 12 weeks of treatment (reported in a set of efficacy-evaluable patients)
- and Spigelman stage improvement in a subset of patients (a clinically meaningful measure used in upper GI disease severity) [6]
Reuters’ report added another durability datapoint that caught investor attention: in the early- to mid-stage study, 9 out of 11 patients maintained a durable reduction in total polyp burden, with a median reduction of 53% measured 12 weeks after discontinuing therapy. [7]
Just as important as the numbers is the narrative Recursion is building around them. Incoming CEO Najat Khan described the result as the first real clinical validation of the company’s AI approach, telling Reuters this was the first time Recursion was “proving it in patients” with this kind of platform-derived insight. [8]
Recursion has also said it plans to engage U.S. regulators in the first half of 2026 to discuss a potential registration pathway and to expand study participation to a broader adult population. [9]
Why this matters: FAP is a rare disease, but the market opportunity can still be big
FAP is not a mass-market condition, but rare disease economics can be powerful: high unmet need, high willingness to pay for an effective alternative to invasive interventions, and the possibility of broader label expansion if the mechanism translates.
This is why investors and analysts are focused not just on whether REC-4881 “works,” but on:
- durability and safety over longer follow-up
- how endpoints might map to approvable outcomes
- whether the drug can reduce the need for repeated procedures and/or surgery
- what a pivotal program could look like in 2026 and beyond [10]
Beyond REC-4881: Recursion’s pipeline and partnership engine
While REC-4881 is the headline, Recursion’s valuation debate also hinges on whether the company has multiple shots on goal.
In its Q3 2025 business update, Recursion highlighted progress across internal and partnered programs, including:
- REC-617 (CDK7 inhibitor): continued development in the ELUCIDATE Phase 1/2 program, including reported preliminary anti-tumor activity and expansion into platinum-resistant ovarian cancer cohorts [11]
- REC-7735 (PI3Kα H1047R inhibitor): advanced as a development candidate with IND-enabling work underway [12]
- partnership milestones, including a $30 million milestone tied to the Roche/Genentech collaboration and the company’s statement that it has achieved over $500 million in upfront and milestone payments across collaborations [13]
Recursion’s argument is that its platform (Recursion OS) plus computational scale can industrialize early discovery and help pick better clinical bets. Whether markets continue to pay for that story depends on whether more programs show clinically meaningful data—especially in 2026.
One overlooked “stock” headline: the Tempus AI resale registration
Not all RXRX headlines are about medicine. A separate thread investors have been watching is potential share supply.
In a prospectus supplement filed Nov. 26, 2025, Recursion registered up to 7,088,742 shares for resale by a selling stockholder (Tempus AI). The filing states the shares were issued to Tempus in lieu of a $32 million cash payment for a 2025 annual license fee under the companies’ agreement, and that Recursion would not receive proceeds from Tempus’ resales. [14]
This kind of filing can create an “overhang” narrative (more shares potentially coming to market), even though resale registration does not automatically mean immediate selling. Still, it’s the sort of structural detail that can matter in small/mid-cap biotech where trading flows can be thin on normal days.
CEO transition: a near-term governance catalyst heading into 2026
Recursion is also approaching a notable leadership change: the board appointed Najat Khan as CEO and President, effective January 1, 2026, with co-founder Christopher Gibson moving to Chair of the Board. [15]
In biotech, leadership transitions can be either a confidence boost (fresh operational focus, tighter clinical execution) or a source of uncertainty (strategy shifts, pipeline reprioritization). Here, the market has mostly treated it as a positive—especially because Khan has been a central figure in shaping the company’s current R&D and platform strategy and has been the public-facing voice on recent REC-4881 momentum. [16]
RXRX stock forecasts and analyst price targets as of Dec. 18, 2025
“Forecast” can mean a few different things in stock coverage, so here’s what’s actually on the table today:
1) Wall Street price targets (consensus snapshots)
MarketBeat’s consensus snapshot (based on a set of analysts it tracks) shows:
- Consensus rating: Hold
- Average price target:$9.50
- High / low:$11.00 / $6.00 (with targets clustered around a wide range) [17]
A separate summary published by Fintel (which aggregates analyst target data from its own dataset) cited:
- Average one-year price target:$6.46
- Range:$3.03 to $10.50
- Projected annual revenue:$88M
- Projected non-GAAP EPS:-1.41 [18]
These numbers don’t “contradict” each other so much as reveal the messy reality: different aggregators track different analysts, different update timestamps, and different inclusion rules. The practical takeaway is that the dispersion is large, which is typical for clinical-stage biotech where models hinge on probability-weighted pipeline assumptions.
2) The JPMorgan “re-rate” signal
JPMorgan’s move to Overweight with an $11 target is the most influential single forecast update in the current news cycle. [19]
3) Algorithmic/technical “forecast” sites
Some market participants follow technical, model-driven forecast sites for near-term trading expectations. For example:
- CoinCodex published short-term, technically derived estimates around the mid/high-$4 range for dates immediately following Dec. 18 (with an explicitly model-based framework). [20]
- StockInvest framed an expected opening area and an intraday trading interval estimate (again: technical, not fundamental). [21]
These shouldn’t be treated as fundamentals-based valuation work—but they do reflect how “hot” the stock is in momentum and volatility conversations right now.
The financial reality check: cash runway vs. burn rate
Even with exciting data, biotech math is unforgiving. Recursion reported:
- approximately $785 million of cash and cash equivalents (unaudited) as of Oct. 9, 2025, and stated this supports a runway through the end of 2027 absent additional financing [22]
- Q3 2025 revenue of $5.2 million (primarily collaboration revenue), versus $26.1 million in Q3 2024, reflecting milestone timing differences [23]
- a Q3 2025 net loss of $162.3 million [24]
This is why the market argument around Recursion often sounds philosophical: investors aren’t just betting on a drug—they’re betting that Recursion can turn cash into multiple high-quality clinical shots fast enough to matter.
What today’s analysis commentary is emphasizing
A Dec. 18 analysis from Simply Wall St framed the investment narrative bluntly: owning Recursion requires believing its AI-driven platform can convert proprietary data into viable drugs before the cash runway becomes the dominant story. It also highlighted that the TUPELO REC-4881 data helps the near-term catalyst narrative but doesn’t erase execution risks typical for clinical-stage companies. [25]
That’s a fair summary of where RXRX sits today: stronger evidence than it had earlier, but still a company whose future valuation is largely tied to what happens next in the clinic.
Key catalysts to watch next for Recursion Pharmaceuticals stock
Looking forward from Dec. 18, 2025, the “what could move RXRX” list is fairly clear:
- Regulatory discussions in 1H 2026 regarding a potential pivotal/registration pathway for REC-4881 in FAP [26]
- Additional clinical data cadence across the pipeline (including ongoing work in oncology programs such as REC-617) [27]
- Execution under the new CEO beginning Jan. 1, 2026—especially around prioritization, timelines, and capital discipline [28]
- Partnership milestones and any further option exercises or collaboration expansions (a recurring source of non-dilutive funding) [29]
- Any material selling related to registered resale shares (a supply-overhang story the market will monitor even if it never becomes consequential) [30]
Bottom line: RXRX is trading on “proof,” not just promise—but the debate isn’t settled
Recursion Pharmaceuticals stock is rallying because the company has delivered something the AI-biotech space desperately needs: clinical data that investors can argue about using real numbers, not just platform claims. [31]
JPMorgan’s upgrade has amplified that momentum by elevating REC-4881 from “interesting” to “potentially very valuable,” while also reminding the market that platform companies can earn a re-rating if they show repeatability. [32]
But Recursion is still a clinical-stage biotech with meaningful losses, a finite runway, and the usual late-2025 biotech hazards: trial risk, regulatory risk, timeline risk, and capital markets risk. [33]
References
1. www.investing.com, 2. www.investing.com, 3. www.investing.com, 4. www.investing.com, 5. www.investing.com, 6. www.globenewswire.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.sec.gov, 12. www.sec.gov, 13. www.sec.gov, 14. www.sec.gov, 15. www.sec.gov, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.marketbeat.com, 18. fintel.io, 19. www.marketbeat.com, 20. coincodex.com, 21. stockinvest.us, 22. www.sec.gov, 23. www.sec.gov, 24. www.sec.gov, 25. simplywall.st, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. www.sec.gov, 28. www.sec.gov, 29. www.sec.gov, 30. www.sec.gov, 31. www.reuters.com, 32. www.investing.com, 33. www.sec.gov
