RELX PLC Stock Outlook 2026: AI‑Powered Growth, Buybacks and Valuation Risks

London, 1 December 2025 — RELX PLC (LSE: REL, NYSE: RELX) has quietly turned into one of Europe’s most important data and AI infrastructure companies. As of early trading on 1 December, its New York–listed ADR changes hands around $40.21, near the bottom of its 52‑week range and well below this year’s highs. ^[1]

After a multi‑year run of double‑digit total returns, the stock is now at a crossroads: earnings and cash flow keep grinding higher, but investors are debating how much they should pay for an AI‑driven, recurring‑revenue giant that still trades at a premium to peers.

Where RELX stock stands on 1 December 2025

On 1 December 2025, the NYSE: RELX ADR is quoted around $40.2, with a 52‑week range of roughly $39.3–$56.3. The 50‑day moving average sits near $44.2, and the 200‑day around $48.8, signalling a clear correction from mid‑year levels. ^[2]

In London, the primary listing (LSE: REL) has recently traded around 3,000–3,100p, with a market capitalisation of about £55–56 billion and a stock‑report “neutral” style scorecard on quality, value and momentum. ^[3]

Balance‑sheet and liquidity snapshot from recent data:

Debt‑to‑equity on the ADR quoted around 2.55×
Quick ratio about 0.42, current ratio ~0.47
^[4]

This is not a low‑leverage utility; it’s a cash‑rich, moderately levered compounding machine that’s leaned into buybacks rather than hoarding cash.

What RELX actually does: from publisher to AI infrastructure

RELX is no longer “just” a publisher. The group describes itself as a global provider of information‑based analytics and decision tools for professional and business customers. ^[5]

It operates in four main segments: ^[6]

Risk – identity, fraud, credit, compliance and other AI‑powered decision tools (LexisNexis Risk Solutions and related platforms).
Scientific, Technical & Medical (STM) – Elsevier’s journals, databases (ScienceDirect, Scopus) and research analytics.
Legal – LexisNexis legal information, analytics and now generative‑AI‑driven products such as Lexis+ AI and Protégé.
Exhibitions – RX events, blending large trade shows with data and digital tools. ^[7]

Over 80% of revenue is now digital, up from roughly 20% at the turn of the century, as the group recycled its print heritage into proprietary data sets, risk scores and AI‑enabled tools. ^[8]

Two secular engines matter most for the stock story:

Digital identity and fraud – RELX’s risk business now processes billions of identity‑related interactions a year and contributes roughly a third of group revenue; it’s become a crucial but largely invisible part of online banking, insurance and e‑commerce onboarding. ^[9]
Generative AI tools – for lawyers, researchers and other professionals, where products like Lexis+ AI Protégé and ScienceDirect AI are driving both pricing power and customer stickiness. ^[10]

Financial performance: 2024 strength and 2025 momentum

2024: another year of high‑quality growth

For 2024, RELX reported: ^[11]

Revenue: £9.43 billion (up ~3% reported, +7% underlying).
Adjusted operating profit: £3.20 billion, underlying growth +10%, with margins rising to 33.9%.
Adjusted EPS: 120.1p, up 5% (+9% at constant currency).
Dividend: proposed full‑year dividend of 63.0p, up 7%.
Cash generation: adjusted cash flow conversion around 97%; net debt/EBITDA down to 1.8×.

Digital revenue represented about 83% of the total and grew at the same +7% underlying rate, confirming that the “old” print drag is now small. ^[12]

H1 2025: AI‑driven compounding continues

In the first half of 2025, RELX delivered: ^[13]

Revenue: £4.74 billion (underlying growth +7%).
Adjusted operating profit: £1.65 billion (underlying +9%).
Adjusted EPS: 63.5p at constant currency (+10%).
Interim dividend: 19.5p, up 7%.
Adjusted operating margin: up to 34.8% (from 34.1%).

Segment‑by‑segment, H1 and subsequent commentary show:

Risk: underlying revenue growth around +8%, driven by financial‑crime compliance, digital fraud and identity solutions, and continued strength in insurance data. ^[14]
STM: underlying growth about +5%, with strong momentum in databases, tools and AI‑assisted researcher workflows, and solid article submission volumes. ^[15]
Legal: underlying growth near +9%, with double‑digit expansion in law‑firm and corporate solutions thanks to Lexis+ AI and Protégé usage scaling rapidly. ^[16]
Exhibitions: underlying growth roughly +8–11%, reflecting recovery and “higher‑quality” event portfolios, plus digital add‑ons. ^[17]

A detailed AI‑driven analysis from Tickeron noted that RELX stock was up 18.9% year‑to‑date by late July, with margins expanding and adjusted cash flow conversion around 97%, but also flagged a P/E of about 36× at that point—already a premium to Wolters Kluwer and Thomson Reuters. ^[18]

October 2025 trading update: guidance reaffirmed

In the 23 October 2025 trading update, management reported +7% underlying revenue growth year‑to‑date and reaffirmed full‑year guidance for strong growth in revenue, adjusted operating profit and EPS. ^[19]

All four segments were still growing at mid‑ to high‑single‑digit rates, with Legal and Risk leading, and the company emphasised that the shift toward higher‑growth, AI‑enabled analytics and decision tools remains the key driver of its “improving long‑term growth trajectory.” ^[20]

Recent corporate actions: buybacks, treasury shares and extra listing

RELX is not shy about returning cash:

£1.0 billion of share buybacks in 2024, with a £1.5 billion programme announced for 2025. ^[21]
By mid‑2025, £1.0 billion of the 2025 programme had already been executed, with the remainder scheduled for completion by year‑end. ^[22]

Recent RNS disclosures show that between 2 January and 28 November 2025 RELX repurchased ~39.5 million shares, holding 59.1 million shares in treasury and leaving 1.824 billion shares in issue (excluding treasury). A single day’s buyback on 28 November saw just over 50,000 shares repurchased around 3,031p. ^[23]

On 26 November 2025, RELX also applied for an additional listing of 60,000 ordinary shares on the LSE in connection with its 2013 employee savings‑related share option (SAYE) scheme, with admission expected on 1 December 2025. ^[24]

The message is straightforward: management is using strong and predictable cash flows to shrink the share count, offset stock‑based compensation and enhance per‑share metrics.

Institutional flows and sentiment: who’s buying RELX now?

Fresh 13F data summarised by MarketBeat on 1 December show that American Century Companies lifted its RELX stake by about 9.8% in Q2, to 462,477 shares (~$25.1 million), while other institutions such as ABC Arbitrage, Ameriprise Financial, Connor Clark & Lunn and Northern Trust have also increased positions. In total, hedge funds and institutional investors now own roughly 15% of the ADR float. ^[25]

This sits alongside a steady stream of share buybacks by the company itself, creating a supportive technical backdrop even as the valuation debate heats up.

What analysts are saying: ratings, price targets and forecasts

Broker ratings: mostly “Buy”, with a hint of caution

Recent rating moves collated by MarketBeat, Yahoo Finance and others paint a picture of broadly positive but not euphoric sentiment: ^[26]

Kepler Capital Markets upgraded RELX to “strong buy” in September.
Morgan Stanley maintains “overweight” but has trimmed its price target, reflecting valuation concerns rather than a sour view on the business. ^[27]
Barclays reiterates “overweight”. ^[28]
Wall Street Zen downgraded from “buy” to “hold” in early November, again largely on valuation. ^[29]

Across sources, one analyst is flagged as Strong Buy, several as Buy/Overweight, and at least one as Hold. MarketBeat summarises this as an average “Buy” rating on the ADR. ^[30]

Price targets on the ADR (NYSE: RELX)

The Financial Times forecast page for the ADR shows: ^[31]

Median 12‑month target:$60.90
High:$62.89
Low:$57.53

From the last quoted price of $40.21, that median implies roughly 51% upside over 12 months, assuming the multiple holds and earnings track expectations.

Algorithmic forecaster StockScan is more aggressive on the long‑term but mixed short‑term: ^[32]

Its technical model currently labels RELX a “Strong Sell” based on trend and momentum indicators.
Its fundamental/quant forecast, however, projects an average price of about $49.7 in 2026 (+24% from today), $56 in 2027 (+39%) and $63.9 in 2030 (+59%), acknowledging very wide uncertainty bands.

These machine‑generated pathways should be treated as scenarios, not destiny; the important point is that most models assume continued EPS growth and some multiple stability.

Price targets on the London line (LSE: REL)

On the London‑listed shares, TradingView’s analyst forecast aggregates 11 analysts with a one‑year price target around 4,354p, with a range of roughly 3,905–4,920p, and an overall “strong buy” rating based on 13 analysts in the past three months. ^[33]

That central target is moderately above current levels (around low‑3,000p) but well below the very top of the stock’s long‑term channel, consistent with the idea of mid‑single‑digit revenue growth translating into high‑single‑digit EPS growth plus some rerating if macro conditions cooperate.

Street forecasts for revenue, margins and EPS

Data collated by StocksGuide from 17 analysts suggest: ^[34]

Revenue:
- 2024 actual: £9.43bn
- 2025 estimate: ~£10.0bn (+6–6.5%)
- 2026 estimate: ~£10.7bn (+6–7%)
Net profit:
- 2024 actual: about £1.9bn
- 2025 estimate: ~£2.4bn (+25%+), implying some operating leverage.
EPS (in GBP):
- 2024: ~£1.03 (aligned with 120.1p adjusted EPS)
- 2025: ~£1.32 (up ~28%)
- 2026: ~£1.46

On those numbers, the stock screens on consensus as:

Current P/E: just under 30× trailing earnings.
Forward P/E 2025: about 23×, compressing further into the high teens by 2028 if growth materialises and the share price climbs more slowly than EPS. ^[35]

Independent analysis: the bull case for RELX stock

Across newspapers, quant platforms and fundamental analysts, the core bull arguments look remarkably consistent: ^[36]

Highly recurring, mission‑critical revenue
Legal, scientific and risk analytics subscriptions are deeply embedded in customer workflows. Churn is low, price increases are modest but consistent, and volumes tend to grow with the complexity of regulation and data.
AI enhances, rather than threatens, RELX’s moat – so far
Generative AI could, in theory, unbundle content. RELX’s answer has been to ship its own AI products—Lexis+ AI, Protégé, ScienceDirect AI and a suite of risk tools—that sit directly on top of proprietary data sets and decades of curation. Management and several external analysts argue that this raises switching costs, rather than lowering them, as long as RELX remains the best place to get “clean” data. ^[37]
Structural margin expansion
Digital mix, AI‑assisted internal processes, and the slow fade of print all support margin expansion. Over the last few years, adjusted operating margin has crept toward the mid‑30s, and consensus expects further modest improvement as more revenue comes from high‑value analytics rather than low‑margin content. ^[38]
Cash‑machine characteristics
With cash flow conversion around the mid‑90s to 100%, net debt/EBITDA near 2×, and capex requirements relatively modest, RELX throws off cash that can be recycled into dividends, buybacks and small bolt‑on acquisitions. ^[39]
Long‑term share price compounding
RELX shares have trounced the FTSE 100 over the last decade, with total returns approaching 10× since 2011 and share‑price gains of around 200% versus roughly 50% for the index. ^[40]

The Times recently described RELX as a “sleeping giant” in UK tech and data, arguing that worries over AI disruption had knocked about 15% off the share price in six months, but that the business fundamentals and long‑term track record still justify a Buy stance. ^[41]

The bear case: valuation, AI risk and regulation

The sceptical side of the argument revolves less around what RELX earns today and more around how much investors are being asked to pay for it and how robust those earnings will be under technological and regulatory pressure. ^[42]

Key bear points include:

Premium valuation vs peers
Analyses from Tickeron and others note that RELX’s P/E multiple has often sat 3–6 turns above comparable information companies like Wolters Kluwer and Thomson Reuters. A July snapshot put RELX on ~36× earnings versus low‑30s for peers; more recent consensus work shows the forward multiple easing but still elevated. ^[43]
Generative AI as a double‑edged sword
While RELX’s own AI tools are popular, analysts and commentators highlight the risk that powerful general‑purpose models could commoditise parts of the value chain—for instance, simple legal research or basic literature reviews—pressuring pricing and margins over time if customers can replicate some functionality with cheaper tools. ^[44]
Regulatory and privacy scrutiny
RELX’s digital identity and fraud‑detection business relies on massive, often sensitive data sets. The Financial Times has underlined how central RELX is to U.S. digital identity checks, a position that inevitably attracts scrutiny from privacy advocates and regulators. Any tightening of data‑use rules, especially in the U.S. and EU, could raise costs or limit data availability. ^[45]
Exhibitions cyclicality
While now a smaller piece of the pie, the Exhibitions division remains exposed to economic cycles and physical‑event disruptions. The COVID shock is a recent reminder that this revenue stream can be volatile. ^[46]
Short‑term technical weakness
Quant screens like StockScan currently flag RELX as a technical “Strong Sell”, with many moving‑average indicators pointing down and the stock making fresh 52‑week lows in November. For short‑term traders, that can be a warning sign even if fundamentals look fine. ^[47]

Outlook for 2026: what the market is pricing in

Putting the pieces together, the 2026 RELX stock story looks something like this (purely as a working narrative, not a prediction):

Fundamentals:
- Mid‑single‑digit revenue growth (5–7% per year).
- High‑single‑digit to low‑double‑digit EPS growth (helped by margin expansion and buybacks). ^[48]
Valuation drift:
- If EPS grows as forecast and the stock trades sideways for a while, the P/E multiple naturally compresses, bringing RELX closer to (but likely still above) peer averages.
- Conversely, if the market re‑embraces high‑quality compounders, the current dip could mark a re‑entry point ahead of another leg higher.
Risk balance:
- Heavy dependence on AI—both as a driver of value and a source of disruption risk—means sentiment can swing quickly around each new product announcement or regulatory headline.
- Data privacy and competition policy will remain a permanent background risk for a company whose business is, essentially, selling insights distilled from other people’s data.

Consensus analyst price targets (roughly £43–44 in London, ~$61 in New York) suggest that the average forecaster expects solid upside over 12 months, primarily from earnings growth plus some recovery in the multiple after this year’s correction. ^[49]

But the spread of views—from technical “Sell” signals to “Strong Buy” ratings and long‑dated AI‑powered bull cases—shows how uncertain the path could be, even if the destination (steadily higher earnings) looks fairly clear.

Bottom line

RELX PLC enters December 2025 as:

A core AI and data infrastructure stock for investors who like durable, high‑margin, subscription‑driven businesses.
A valuation puzzle, trading near 52‑week lows but still on a premium multiple versus peers.
A company with strong cash returns through dividends and buybacks, and a long record of out‑executing more glamorous tech names.

For long‑term, fundamentals‑oriented investors, the key questions into 2026 are:

Will RELX’s own AI products deepen its moat faster than generic AI erodes it?
How far can margins expand before regulators, customers or competitors push back?
Does a high‑20s or low‑20s forward P/E properly reflect those risks—or underestimate the company’s ability to keep compounding?

However you answer those, RELX is likely to remain at the centre of debates about how much the market should pay for high‑quality data and AI franchises.

References

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