RELX PLC Stock Outlook December 2025: AI Data Powerhouse at a 52‑Week Low

Where RELX Stock Stands on 5 December 2025

RELX PLC (LSE: REL, NYSE: RELX) is ending the first week of December 2025 in a curious spot: operationally strong, but technically weak.

On the New York Stock Exchange, the ADR is trading around $40.54 as of 5 December 2025, only a little above its recent lows and well below the 2025 high near $56. ^[1] In London, the primary listing hit a new 52‑week low on Monday, 1 December, touching GBX 2,976 before closing around GBX 3,017. At that level, the stock was below both its 50‑day (c. GBX 3,323) and 200‑day (c. GBX 3,631) moving averages, with a market cap of about £54.9bn and a trailing P/E near 29x. ^[2]

That weakness contrasts sharply with RELX’s fundamentals: high recurring revenue, strong margins, and mid‑single to high‑single‑digit underlying growth. For long‑term investors, the tension between the chart and the income statement is the story of this stock right now.

Recent Trading: 52‑Week Lows and Unusual Volume

Two near‑term developments have put RELX back on radar screens:

London 52‑week low: On 1 December, LSE:REL printed a new 52‑week low at 2,976p before a modest rebound, cementing a double‑digit percentage drawdown from earlier 2025 highs. ^[3]
NYSE volume spike: On 2 December, NYSE:RELX saw trading volume jump to roughly 2.93 million shares, about 172% above the prior session. The stock itself barely moved, closing around $39.66, but the volume spike suggests repositioning by larger investors. ^[4]

Across both listings, RELX now trades near the bottom of its 1‑year range (roughly $39–56 in New York), with the ADR below its 50‑ and 200‑day moving averages and a balance sheet that includes a debt‑to‑equity ratio around 2.5x and modest liquidity ratios (current ratio ~0.47, quick ratio ~0.42). ^[5]

Institutional investors, however, are not fleeing. Recent filings show continued interest from asset managers such as Goldman Sachs, Dimensional Fund Advisors, Northern Trust and others, with institutions and hedge funds together owning about 15% of the stock. ^[6]

Business Snapshot: From Publisher to AI‑Driven Analytics

RELX is no longer just “the company that owns Elsevier.” It is a global provider of information‑based analytics and decision tools built around four segments:

Risk – data and analytics for fraud, financial crime, insurance and government.
Scientific, Technical & Medical (STM) – Elsevier and related tools for researchers and clinicians.
Legal – LexisNexis legal information, analytics and now generative‑AI‑driven research.
Exhibitions – RX, its trade shows and events business. ^[7]

The group serves customers in more than 180 countries and employs over 36,000 people, with a high proportion of revenue delivered as digital subscriptions and data‑driven services. ^[8]

Over the last decade, RELX has pivoted away from print toward high‑margin analytics. By 2024, digital products accounted for about 83% of revenue, helping drive an 11% rise in statutory pre‑tax profit to £2.6bn on 7% underlying revenue growth to £9.4bn. ^[9]

2025 Performance: Solid Growth Across All Segments

The latest figures from 2025 show that momentum has continued:

First Half 2025

For the six months to 30 June 2025, RELX reported:

Revenue of £4,741m (up from £4,641m).
Underlying revenue growth of +7%.
Adjusted operating profit of £1,652m, with underlying profit growth of +9%.
Adjusted operating margin improving from 34.1% to 34.8%.
Adjusted EPS of 63.5p, up 10% at constant currency.
Interim dividend up 7% to 19.5p. ^[10]

Net debt to EBITDA rose slightly to 2.2x, still well within typical comfort ranges for a stable, cash‑generative business. The company also pushed ahead with its £1.5bn 2025 share buyback, completing £1.0bn in H1 and continuing repurchases into the second half. ^[11]

Nine‑Month Trading Update (October 2025)

In an October trading update, RELX reported +7% underlying revenue growth year‑to‑date and reaffirmed its full‑year guidance for strong underlying growth in revenue, adjusted operating profit and adjusted EPS. ^[12]

Crucially, all four segments contributed:

Risk: +8% underlying revenue growth YTD, driven by AI‑enabled financial crime compliance, fraud and identity solutions, and strong insurance analytics demand. ^[13]
STM: +5% growth, supported by new AI‑powered researcher tools and strong article submission volumes. ^[14]
Legal: +9% growth, with Lexis+ AI and the Protégé AI legal assistant delivering double‑digit growth in law firm and corporate legal segments. ^[15]
Exhibitions (RX): +8% growth, as the events portfolio and accompanying digital initiatives continue to mature post‑pandemic. ^[16]

Management emphasises a “higher quality growth profile” driven by the shift towards analytics and decision tools, leveraging proprietary content with artificial intelligence across the portfolio. ^[17]

Structural Tailwinds: AI, Fraud and the Data Moat

RELX’s moat increasingly rests on proprietary data plus AI rather than on content alone:

In Risk, LexisNexis Risk Solutions continues to roll out advanced fraud and identity analytics. Its 2025 True Cost of Fraud study for North American financial institutions found that each $1 in direct fraud loss now costs FIs over $5 when operational, reputational and remediation costs are included—up roughly 25% since 2021. ^[18]
That rising complexity plays directly into demand for RELX’s fraud‑fighting tools.
In Legal, RELX’s launch of Lexis+ AI and its Protégé assistant is already visible in the numbers, with legal segment underlying revenue up 9% year‑to‑date. ^[19]
In STM, AI‑enabled research tools and databases are driving growth beyond legacy journal subs, with a next‑generation, end‑to‑end AI researcher solution flagged as receiving “very positive feedback” from customers. ^[20]

Put simply: RELX is selling workflow and risk decisions, not just documents. That helps explain why margins sit in the mid‑30s and why investors have historically been willing to pay premium multiples. ^[21]

Analyst Sentiment: Still a “Buy” Despite the Pullback

Despite the recent share price slump, most analysts remain constructive:

MarketBeat data shows one Strong Buy, four Buy and one Hold rating on the ADR, with an average rating of “Buy.” ^[22]
On the London listing, a recent note highlighted UBS (target around 4,570p) and RBC both positive, with MarketBeat reporting an average target price near 4,520p for LSE:REL. ^[23]
TipRanks classifies RELX PLC as a “Strong Buy,” with nine Buy ratings and one Hold. ^[24]
StocksGuide aggregates 23 analyst views, with 19 Buy and 4 Hold, and estimates an average upside potential to 2026 of about 46%, based on target prices versus current levels. ^[25]
StockAnalysis.com likewise shows a Strong Buy rating, with 17 analysts forecasting revenue growth of about 6.1% in 2025 and 6.6% in 2026, and EPS growth of roughly 28% in 2025 and 10% in 2026. ^[26]

On the US side, Zacks reports a price‑target range of $57–60.90 for NYSE:RELX, implying around 45–47% upside from a recent reference price of roughly $40.19. ^[27]

Independent fundamental work broadly echoes that optimism. A detailed valuation review from DCFmodeling.com characterises RELX as a “premium growth story”:

Trailing P/E around 28x and forward P/E near 22x.
EV/EBITDA about 20x.
Price‑to‑book close to 25x, reflecting the value of proprietary data and IP rather than tangible assets.
Dividend yield around 2.1%, with a payout ratio a little above 60% but still supported by cash flows. ^[28]

The same analysis cites a 12‑month average price target of roughly 4,400p, implying >40% upside from late‑November levels in London. ^[29]

Forecasts: Earnings Growth and Margin Expansion

Consensus numbers across providers paint a consistent picture for 2025–26:

Revenue: Analysts expect revenue to rise from about £9.4bn in 2024 to roughly £10.0bn in 2025, with further growth toward £10.7bn in 2026, implying mid‑single‑digit to high‑single‑digit annual growth. ^[30]
EBITDA: StocksGuide’s aggregation suggests EBITDA could climb from ~£3.1bn (2024) to around £4.0bn in 2025, a jump of nearly 30%, with margins approaching 40%. ^[31]
Net profit: The same dataset points to net income rising from ~£1.9bn in 2024 to around £2.4bn in 2025, implying roughly 26% profit growth and net margins trending into the mid‑20s. ^[32]
EPS: StockAnalysis estimates average EPS of 1.32p (GBP) in 2025, up about 28%, and 1.46p in 2026, up another 10%. ^[33]

These forecasts assume continued margin expansion, in line with management’s strategy of keeping cost growth below revenue growth and gradually tilting the portfolio toward higher‑value analytics products. ^[34]

Technical Picture: Short‑Term Signals Still Bearish

Technically, however, RELX is not in favour:

The ADR trades below its 50‑ and 200‑day moving averages, and the London line is similarly below key trend lines, confirming a downtrend. ^[35]
A quantitative technical screen from Intellectia.ai flags three sell signals vs. one buy signal, citing a bearish moving‑average structure (20‑day below 60‑day; 60‑day below 200‑day). Support is seen around $39.11–38.48, with resistance in the $41–42 area. ^[36]
The same model projects a short‑term one‑month drift to roughly $38.3 (about –5% from late‑November), while forecasting a wide potential trading channel between $42–72 across 2026 based on historical pattern matching. ^[37]

In other words, the quant view is: fundamentally robust, but technically fragile in the very near term.

Valuation Debate: High Quality, High Multiple

The key question is whether RELX’s premium multiple is still justified now that growth is solid but not explosive and generative AI has raised questions about the defensibility of some information businesses.

A recent column in The Times described RELX as a “sleeping giant” of data, noting that despite a roughly 15% share price decline on AI‑related worries, the stock still trades around 25x forward earnings, down from about 30x earlier in 2025. ^[38]

DCFmodeling.com similarly concludes that RELX is expensive versus the broader market, but argues that the premium reflects:

High and rising margins (from about 32% in 2019 to around 35% in 2025). ^[39]
A “sticky” customer base, with more than 70% recurring revenue.
A durable data moat in risk and legal analytics. ^[40]

The flip side is that premium stocks can de‑rate sharply if growth disappoints or if the market decides that generative AI will compress pricing power in legal and scientific information.

Key Risks: AI Competition, Regulation and Leverage

Even with strong fundamentals, RELX is not risk‑free. Key concerns flagged by company filings and independent analysis include: ^[41]

Generative AI competition
- In legal research and professional information, new AI‑native tools could undercut traditional subscription models or force price reductions. RELX’s own Lexis+ AI is a strong response, but the competitive landscape is evolving quickly. ^[42]
Data privacy and regulation
- RELX’s risk analytics depend heavily on personal and public‑record data. Tighter privacy regulations in the EU, US or elsewhere could limit data access or increase compliance costs. ^[43]
Cybersecurity
- As a data‑centric company, a serious breach would be reputationally and financially damaging. The group spends heavily on technology, but filings explicitly flag cybersecurity as a principal risk. ^[44]
Leverage and interest rates
- While net debt/EBITDA of 2.2x is reasonable, it is not trivial, and higher interest rates could limit flexibility if growth slows or acquisitions underperform. ^[45]
Exhibitions cyclicality
- RX has recovered strongly, but trade shows remain cyclical and sensitive to macro conditions and travel trends. An economic downturn could pressure that segment again. ^[46]

Is the December 2025 Pullback an Opportunity?

Zooming out, the picture as of 5 December 2025 looks like this:

Operations: High‑single‑digit underlying revenue growth, margin expansion, strong cash generation and a clear AI‑driven strategy across all four segments. ^[47]
Balance sheet & capital returns: Manageable leverage, rising dividends and an aggressive share buyback programme. ^[48]
Valuation: Premium multiples versus the market, but lower than earlier this year; most broker price targets imply 40–50% upside from current levels. ^[49]
Market sentiment: Price near 52‑week lows, technical indicators still cautious or outright bearish, and short‑term models pointing to possible further volatility. ^[50]

For investors, that combination sets up a classic trade‑off:

Bull case: A rare chance to buy a structurally advantaged, AI‑enabled data and risk franchise at the lower end of its recent valuation band, with resilient recurring revenue and long runway for analytics‑driven growth.
Bear case: Continued de‑rating if the market loses patience with “expensive defensives,” if generative AI commoditises more of RELX’s offering than expected, or if regulatory and macro risks bite at the same time.

As always, these are expectations, not guarantees. Anyone considering RELX should stress‑test their own assumptions on growth, margins and multiples, and consider how the stock would behave under both optimistic and adverse scenarios.