Rigetti Computing (RGTI) Stock: Q3 2025 Shock, Insider Selling and a High‑Risk Quantum Bet – Analysis & Forecast (Updated November 16, 2025)

Updated: November 16, 2025
Data snapshot: Prices and fundamentals referenced are as of the close on November 14, 2025, with news flow through the morning of November 16, 2025.

Rigetti Computing (NASDAQ: RGTI) has gone from obscure micro‑cap to one of the most talked‑about quantum computing stocks on Wall Street. After a breathtaking rally of well over 1,000% over the last 12 months, the stock has just endured a brutal November selloff following mixed Q3 2025 results, a DARPA program setback, and heavy insider selling headlines. ^[1]

At the same time, Rigetti’s management is doubling down on an aggressive roadmap to a 1,000+ qubit system by 2027, while a mix of quant funds, hedge funds and retail traders argue over whether this is the next AI‑style winner—or a quantum bubble ready to burst. ^[2]

This article pulls together the latest November 2025 news, earnings, analyst views, and valuation data to provide an up‑to‑date RGTI stock analysis and scenario‑based forecast—aimed at readers of Google News and Discover. It is not financial advice.

Key takeaways on RGTI stock right now

Wild volatility: Rigetti closed at $25.48 on November 14, 2025, down about 24–25% over the last week and more than 50% below its recent peak, yet still up over 1,500% year‑on‑year. ^[3]
Mixed Q3 2025: The company beat earnings expectations with an adjusted loss of $0.03 per share vs. -$0.05 expected, but missed badly on revenue, reporting ~$1.9 million vs. ~$2.2 million consensus, down roughly 18–21% year‑over‑year. ^[4]
Huge GAAP loss, strong cash balance: Q3 GAAP net loss was about $201 million, largely driven by non‑cash warrant and derivative adjustments, versus a much smaller non‑GAAP net loss of $10.7 million. Rigetti ended early November with roughly $600 million in cash and investments. ^[5]
Aggressive roadmap: Management reaffirmed plans for a 100+ qubit system by end‑2025, a 150+ qubit system by end‑2026, and a 1,000+ qubit system by end‑2027, with steadily higher target fidelities. CEO Subodh Kulkarni says the firm is 3–5 years away from “quantum advantage” in real‑world tasks. ^[6]
Insiders selling, institutions buying: Over the last six months, 26 insider sales and zero insider purchases have been recorded, including ~1 million shares sold by the CEO for roughly $12 million, even as major institutions like D.E. Shaw, Vanguard and BlackRock have added large positions. ^[7]
Valuation is extreme: With a market cap around $8.3–8.4 billion on trailing‑twelve‑month revenue of about $7.5 million, RGTI trades at a price‑to‑sales ratio over 1,100x—and Street forecasts still expect negative EPS through at least 2027. ^[8]
Opinions split: Some commentators project 55–67% upside from here based on analyst price targets and a rebound to prior highs, while others warn quantum stocks like Rigetti could plunge 50% or more in 2026 as the hype cycle unwinds. ^[9]

RGTI stock price snapshot (as of mid‑November 2025)

As of the close on November 14, 2025:

Share price: $25.48
Market cap: ≈ $8.3–8.4 billion
1‑week performance: about ‑24–25%
1‑month performance: about ‑55%
1‑year performance: roughly +1,500% to +2,000%, depending on the exact start date used. ^[10]

On top of price volatility, positioning data underlines how speculative this trade has become:

Short interest:
- Around 39.7 million shares sold short as of October 31, 2025
- Roughly 12% of the public float
- Days‑to‑cover ~0.3–0.4, given heavy trading volumes ^[11]
Options market: November 21, 2025 options imply volatility north of 120%, consistent with a very wide expected trading range. ^[12]

In other words: RGTI is trading more like a lottery ticket on a future technology platform than a traditional hardware business.

Q3 2025 earnings: better EPS, worse revenue

Rigetti’s Q3 2025 earnings release on November 10 is the central trigger for the latest slide.

The numbers

According to the company’s release and multiple coverage sources: ^[13]

Revenue:
- About $1.9–1.95 million,
- Down ~18–21% year‑over‑year (prior‑year Q3 around $2.3–2.4 million),
- Below consensus of roughly $2.17–$2.2 million.
Earnings:
- Non‑GAAP EPS:‑$0.03, versus ‑$0.05 expected, and better than ‑$0.07 to ‑$0.08 a year ago (a ~40% “beat”).
- GAAP net loss: ~$201 million, inflated by non‑cash changes in warrant and derivative liabilities.
- Non‑GAAP net loss:$10.7 million.
Operating loss: about $20.5 million for the quarter.
Cash & investments:
- $558.9 million at September 30, 2025.
- ≈$600 million as of November 6, after $46.5 million in warrant‑exercise proceeds.

Why did the stock drop if EPS beat estimates?

Commentary from Barron’s, Zacks, Investors Business Daily and others converges on a few themes: ^[14]

The revenue miss reinforced the narrative that Rigetti’s commercial ramp is slower than hoped, especially compared with quantum peers like IonQ and D‑Wave.
Gross margins compressed sharply (to roughly low‑20s%) as lower‑margin contracts and mix effects weighed on profitability.
The huge GAAP loss and continued heavy operating losses feed the fear that dilution and warrant overhang will be recurring features of the story.
This came on top of earlier 2025 quarters where revenue had already declined—Q1 2025 revenue, for example, was down more than 50% year‑on‑year, prompting earlier selloffs. ^[15]

The market reaction was swift: Rigetti stock initially fell around 5–10% after the release and then cascaded lower over several sessions, with some sources estimating a 25%+ slide from the prior Friday into November 13. ^[16]

Contracts, roadmap and technology: what’s actually going right

Underneath the noisy share‑price action, Rigetti’s Q3 release and November updates did contain meaningful fundamental positives.

Government and commercial wins

Rigetti highlighted several notable contracts and purchase orders: ^[17]

$5.8 million AFRL contract (with QphoX):
- Three‑year project funded by the U.S. Air Force Research Laboratory to develop superconducting quantum networking, converting microwave signals from qubits into optical photons for fiber‑based quantum links.
Two Novera™ 9‑qubit systems (≈$5.7 million total POs):
- One sold to a major Asian technology manufacturer to develop in‑house quantum expertise and benchmarking.
- One sold to a California‑based applied physics & AI start‑up focused on quantum hardware and error‑correction research.
- Both systems are upgradeable, providing potential revenue upsell pathways as customers scale.
Collaborations and expansion:
- A memorandum of understanding with India’s C‑DAC to co‑develop hybrid quantum systems.
- A partnership with Montana State University (MSU), including an on‑premises 9‑qubit Novera QPU.
- Plans to open an Italian subsidiary to pursue European opportunities.
- Support for NVIDIA’s NVQLink platform to integrate quantum systems with AI supercomputers.

Roadmap to 1,000+ qubits and “quantum advantage”

Rigetti’s roadmap is one of the most aggressive among pure‑play quantum hardware vendors: ^[18]

By end‑2025: Deliver a 100+ qubit chiplet‑based system with ≈99.5% median two‑qubit gate fidelity.
By end‑2026: Deploy a 150+ qubit system, targeting ≈99.7% gate fidelity.
By end‑2027: Deliver a 1,000+ qubit system with ≈99.8% gate fidelity.

In recent talks and a widely watched CNBC segment, CEO Subodh Kulkarni has suggested Rigetti is roughly 3–5 years away from demonstrating “quantum advantage” on practical problems, and 7–9 years away from fully fault‑tolerant quantum computing. ^[19]

That long timeline is critical for investors: it underlines why current revenues remain tiny while R&D spending stays very high, and why the stock trades on expectations rather than near‑term cash flows.

The DARPA QBI setback

One negative in the Q3 update: Rigetti disclosed that it was not initially selected for Stage B of the U.S. Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency’s Quantum Benchmarking Initiative (QBI), although it remains engaged in Stage A and says its dialogue with DARPA is ongoing. ^[20]

Some November news coverage framed this as a “program setback” that compounded the earnings disappointment and added to selling pressure. ^[21]

Insider selling vs institutional buying: who’s on each side of the trade?

Insider activity: 26 sales, zero buys

According to aggregated insider‑trading data, the last six months have seen an unusually one‑sided pattern: ^[22]

26 insider sales and no insider purchases of RGTI on the open market.
CEO Subodh Kulkarni sold 1,000,000 shares, for an estimated $12.0 million.
Other executives and directors, including the CFO, CTO and board members, have collectively sold hundreds of thousands more shares, totaling several million dollars.

A widely shared headline framed this as “Rigetti’s CEO Sent an $11 Million Warning to Wall Street”, arguing that such a large sale amid a 2,000% stock surge signals caution about valuation. ^[23]

Institutional flows: big funds piling in

Yet at the same time, institutional ownership has surged: ^[24]

296 institutional investors increased positions in recent quarters, vs 142 that decreased.
Notable buyers include:
- D.E. Shaw (+12.8M shares, est. $380M)
- Vanguard Group (+9.2M shares, est. $275M)
- BlackRock (+4.5M shares, est. $134M)

Taken together, the data paints a paradoxical picture: executives are selling into strength, while many quant and index funds are scaling up exposure, viewing Rigetti as a high‑beta way to play long‑term quantum computing.

What Wall Street and commentators are saying

Sell‑side analysts: mostly bullish, but nervous

Quiver, MarketBeat and other trackers show that most covering analysts still rate RGTI a “Buy” or “Overweight,” but with a wide range of targets: ^[25]

Benchmark: Buy, price target $40 (cut from $50 after Q3).
B. Riley: Target $35, with a downgrade to Neutral earlier in November on valuation and execution concerns. ^[26]
Needham: Buy, price target $18.
Cantor Fitzgerald: Overweight, price target $15.
Median 6‑month target: ~$26.50, only slightly above the current price. ^[27]

Quant platforms like WallStreetZen currently rate the stock a “Hold” and estimate a DCF “fair value” near –$2 per share, implying the current price is 1,200%+ above their modelled intrinsic value. ^[28]

Media & pundits: from “soar 55%” to “plunge 50% or more”

November 2025 coverage of RGTI has been extraordinarily polarized:

Bullish narratives

A Motley Fool piece argues “Here’s Why Rigetti Stock Could Soar 55% in 2026,” pointing to analyst price targets, the multi‑year quantum roadmap, and potential for government and enterprise contracts to accelerate revenue. ^[29]
Another article, “Don’t Miss Out: This Tech Stock Could Surge 67% by Year‑End 2025,” frames the recent selloff as an opportunity for RGTI to rebound toward its all‑time high if sentiment recovers. ^[30]
“5 Things Investors Should Know Before Buying Rigetti Computing Stock” describes the stock as high‑risk but potentially high‑reward after a pullback of more than 40% from its peak, while still up nearly 2,000% over the last year. ^[31]

Bearish narratives

In contrast, a widely shared Motley Fool piece predicts “Quantum Computing Stocks IonQ, Rigetti, and D‑Wave Quantum Will Plunge 50% (or More) in 2026,” warning that valuations reflect a bubble that may burst before the technology is commercial. ^[32]
Business Insider highlighted short‑seller Andrew Left of Citron Research, who disclosed a bearish position in Rigetti, citing high R&D costs, uncertain commercialization, fierce competition from giants like Alphabet/Google, and heavy insider selling. ^[33]
A 24/7 Wall St. piece titled “This Is the Only Quantum Computing Stock You Should Buy” picks IBM—not Rigetti, IonQ or D‑Wave—as the only “investable” quantum name, pointing out that those pure‑plays generate under $10 million in annual revenue while IBM can fund quantum research with more than $60 billion in cloud and AI revenue. ^[34]
Another 24/7 Wall St. article, “Alert: Rigetti Computing (RGTI) Stock Is Vulnerable,” warns that traders chasing the next AI‑style breakout may underestimate how long commercialization will take and how quickly sentiment can reverse. ^[35]

Mainstream finance TV

Jim Cramer recently told viewers “I’m not recommending Rigetti” and suggested traders who rode the wave higher might take profits on part of their position, citing the Q3 revenue miss and valuation concerns. ^[36]

Sector context: quantum stocks back in the spotlight

A Barron’s feature, “Quantum Computing Stocks Are Back in the Spotlight. What Investors Should Know,” notes that: ^[37]

Quantum stocks like Rigetti, IonQ, and D‑Wave have surged earlier in 2025, driven by investor enthusiasm and talk of potential government involvement.
The group has since suffered a steep pullback, with one Benzinga story estimating around $30 billion in paper market cap wiped out across leading quantum names following earnings season. ^[38]
Meanwhile, large incumbents like IBM and NVIDIA’s ecosystem continue to make technical strides, intensifying competitive pressure on smaller pure‑plays.

Valuation check: how stretched is RGTI?

Based on stock and financial data providers: ^[39]

Trailing‑12‑month revenue: ≈ $7.49 million
Market cap: ≈ $8.4 billion
TTM price‑to‑sales (P/S): ≈ 1,120x
TTM net loss: ≈ $351 million (largely due to warrant/derivative adjustments, but still indicative of heavy burn)

Street consensus compiled by StockAnalysis and others currently projects: ^[40]

2025 revenue: average estimate ≈ $8.3 million (a decline vs 2024).
2026 revenue: average estimate ≈ $21.9 million (about +160% growth vs 2025).
EPS: expected to remain negative through at least 2027 (average EPS around ‑$0.22 in 2025 and ‑$0.19 in 2026).

Even if Rigetti hits the 2026 consensus revenue of ~$21.9 million and the market cap stayed flat around $8.4 billion, the forward P/S ratio would still be roughly 380x—orders of magnitude higher than typical high‑growth hardware or cloud infrastructure names, which often trade in the single to low‑double‑digit P/S range. ^[41]

That doesn’t automatically make Rigetti a sell—but it does mean:

The current price already assumes extraordinary long‑term success, leaving very little margin for error if the roadmap slips or the quantum market develops more slowly than hoped.

RGTI stock forecast for 2026–2027: scenario analysis

Because Rigetti is pre‑profit, ultra‑volatile and dependent on emerging technology, any precise “price target” should be treated with caution. Instead, it’s more useful to think in scenarios.

All scenarios below are illustrative, using publicly available data and Street estimates. They are not predictions or recommendations.

1. Bull case: execution meets hype

Assumptions (2026–2027):

Rigetti delivers the 100+ and 150+ qubit systems roughly on schedule, hitting target fidelities and demonstrating compelling benchmarks vs. classical HPC. ^[42]
The company begins recognizing revenue from the $5.8M AFRL contract and the $5.7M in Novera system orders, while landing additional on‑premise deployments and cloud access deals. ^[43]
The broader quantum sector stabilizes after the current pullback, with investors willing to pay high multiples for future optionality.
Consensus‑like revenue of $20–25 million in 2026 is achieved, with a credible path to $40–50 million by 2027. ^[44]

In this scenario, analysts with $35–40 price targets could be directionally vindicated: if the market keeps valuing Rigetti as a scarce asset in a massive future market, the stock could justify modest upside from current levels or a retest of recent highs, even with continued losses. ^[45]

However, even in this rosy outcome, valuation would likely remain extremely demanding, and further gains would still be vulnerable to sentiment shifts.

2. Base case: progress, but with multiple compression

Assumptions:

Rigetti executes on parts of its roadmap, but some milestones slip or run into engineering challenges, as is common in frontier hardware.
Revenue roughly follows the middle of Street estimates (~$8M in 2025, $20–22M in 2026), but large commercial deals remain lumpy and heavily government‑skewed. ^[46]
The market gradually reprices quantum stocks from “moonshot AI proxy” toward “high‑risk deep‑tech hardware,” leading to P/S multiples compressing sharply—perhaps still high, but no longer in the hundreds.

In that scenario, Rigetti’s fundamental progress could be partially offset by valuation compression, leaving the stock range‑bound or even modestly lower over the next 12–24 months, depending on how quickly the company can grow its top line relative to market cap.

3. Bear case: quantum bubble deflates

Bearish commentators—including some Motley Fool writers and short‑seller Andrew Left—outline a scenario where: ^[47]

The quantum timeline proves longer than investors tolerate, with meaningful “quantum advantage” still years away.
Government and defense budgets tighten or are delayed, slowing the pace of contract awards.
Larger players (IBM, Google, Microsoft, Amazon) capture most of the commercially viable workload via their own platforms.
Speculative tech and quantum names fall out of favor, leading to 50%+ drawdowns from current levels as valuations normalize.

Under that outcome, Rigetti might still survive—especially given its current cash pile—but the stock could trade for a small fraction of today’s price if the market begins valuing it on traditional metrics (like single‑digit P/S) before revenue has had time to catch up.

Key catalysts and risks to watch (next 12 months)

Potential catalysts

Technology milestones:
- Delivery and performance of the 100+ qubit system and early data on error rates and application benchmarks. ^[48]
Contract conversions:
- Revenue recognition from the AFRL networking contract and Novera system shipments, plus any new large‑scale on‑premise installations. ^[49]
DARPA QBI outcome:
- Any update on potential inclusion in Stage B could restore some confidence in Rigetti’s standing with U.S. defense programs. ^[50]
Partnerships & ecosystem:
- Deeper integration with NVIDIA NVQLink, cloud hyperscalers, or large industrial users could validate the platform for hybrid AI‑quantum workflows. ^[51]

Major risks

Execution risk: missing roadmap targets, or failing to demonstrate clear advantages vs. competing hardware architectures. ^[52]
Funding & dilution: despite a strong cash position, sustained R&D and operating losses may eventually force additional equity raises, especially if warrant exercises slow. ^[53]
Government dependence: a large share of current and prospective revenue is tied to government and defense programs, which can be subject to delays, shutdowns, or changing priorities. ^[54]
Competition: big tech players with vastly greater resources (IBM, Alphabet/Google, Microsoft, Amazon) may out‑innovate or commoditize key parts of the quantum stack before Rigetti can scale. ^[55]
Sentiment unwind: with 12% of float shorted, implied vol above 120% and a P/S above 1,000x, even minor disappointments could trigger sharp downdrafts, especially if the broader quantum and AI complex continues to de‑risk. ^[56]

Bottom line: who is RGTI really for?

Putting it all together:

Fundamentally, Rigetti is a credible, technically ambitious quantum hardware company with real contracts, a clear roadmap, and a large cash balance—but still tiny revenue and deep losses. ^[57]
Financially, the stock is priced for near‑perfection, with valuation multiples that assume massive long‑term success and leave little room for delays or missteps.
From a market‑structure perspective, RGTI has become a crowded speculative trade, with heavy retail participation, high short interest, concentrated institutional holders and extreme options activity. ^[58]

That combination means RGTI is best viewed as a venture‑style, high‑risk/high‑reward bet, not a steady compounder:

It may deliver outsized gains if Rigetti achieves quantum milestones faster than peers and successfully translates them into commercial revenue.
It may also suffer deep, prolonged drawdowns if the quantum hype cycle cools before the business catches up.

For investors following the story, the most important questions over the next 12–24 months are:

Can revenue growth catch up with the valuation?
Will Rigetti secure and deliver enough high‑value contracts to demonstrate a path to tens of millions in annual sales?
Can the company maintain technological leadership in a field increasingly dominated by giants?

Until those questions are answered, RGTI will likely remain one of the market’s purest expressions of quantum optimism—and quantum risk.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Always do your own research and consider consulting a qualified financial adviser before making investment decisions.

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