NEW YORK, Feb 12, 2026, 18:49 EST — Trading after the bell
Rivian Automotive shares jumped more than 14% in Thursday’s after-hours session, lifted by the EV maker’s projection of a 53% increase in deliveries for 2026, fueled by its new, smaller R2 SUV. The company is targeting a starting price near $45,000. CEO RJ Scaringe told Reuters that R2 is “really, of course, what we see” driving growth. That forecast comes as U.S. demand for electric vehicles has cooled since federal tax credits expired last year. 1
That swing is significant. Rivian’s still working to expand demand past its flagship R1 pickup and SUV. Introducing a lower-cost model shifts the narrative: mass-market EVs mean bigger volumes, slimmer margins, and a sharper focus on execution.
It also pushes the tough part to the forefront. Rivian has to prove it can handle higher volumes—building and selling more vehicles—without letting cash burn spiral, a tall order with spending heading higher as new production comes online and more in-house driver-assist tech gets added.
Rivian dropped 5.2% to finish the session at $14.00. 2
Rivian’s latest results showed fourth-quarter deliveries slipped to 9,745, with revenue coming in at $1.286 billion—both figures below last year’s marks. Software and services jumped, clocking $447 million, more than double, largely on the back of development work for its Volkswagen joint venture. Lower regulatory credit sales weighed on the automotive segment, the company said, citing weaker demand for emissions credits from other carmakers. Looking out to 2026, Rivian expects deliveries between 62,000 and 67,000, capital expenditures of $1.95 billion to $2.05 billion, and an adjusted EBITDA loss ranging from $1.8 billion to $2.1 billion. The adjusted EBITDA metric excludes interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization. Rivian added that first R2 customer deliveries should land in the second quarter, with further product updates set for March 12. 3
Traders usually start with that mix: first, the volume figure, then look at spending, then check the cash bridge. Rivian’s got some runway, just not unlimited—and staying “on track” can get expensive fast.
Rivian’s wading further into the mid-size SUV battle, a space where Tesla’s Model Y has held the upper hand for some time. The price cut draws attention, but it’s a double-edged sword—spotlighting range, price tags, and shifting incentive math, all of which can change quickly.
Andres Sheppard at Cantor Fitzgerald labeled the R2 as this year’s “most material catalyst,” saying investor attention will turn to pricing details and how the launch unfolds. He also pointed out that an increase in planned capital spending could weigh on the stock in the near term. 4
The roadmap, though, comes with a hefty price tag. If the R2 launch stumbles, or if consumer demand wavers, or bigger competitors start another price war, Rivian could see expenses climb right when it’s pushing to ramp up.
Friday brings the real test: can that after-hours surge stick when the full market steps in? Investors are also set to comb the earnings call and any subsequent disclosures for fresh detail on margins and cash burn.
March 12 is circled—the date Rivian plans to unveil more on the R2, with first deliveries still set for the second quarter. Between now and then, any whiff of news—positive or negative—about delays or progress on the affordable SUV could send the stock moving.
