NEW YORK, Feb 16, 2026, 13:42 (ET) — The session has ended.
- Rivian shares ended Friday at $17.73, up 26.6%. The stock bounced around, trading from a low of $16.40 to as high as $18.48.
- U.S. markets are closed Monday for Presidents’ Day, so traders won’t get back to business until Tuesday.
- Rivian watchers are zeroed in on when the R2 will actually launch, how quickly the company’s burning through cash, and—crucially—what’s coming at the next update on March 12.
Rivian Automotive, Inc. (RIVN) picks up speed going into Tuesday’s session, coming off a 26.6% rally on Friday that left the stock at $17.73. With U.S. markets shuttered Monday for Presidents’ Day, investors will have to wait for the next move.
Rivian’s latest quarter is out, along with a 2026 forecast that puts heavy weight on the cheaper R2—the vehicle investors are counting on for scale. After a long weekend combing through the figures, the conversation quickly leaves “beat or miss” behind. All eyes on whether Rivian can deliver, or fall short.
Rivian, in a shareholder letter filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, put its 2026 delivery forecast between 62,000 and 67,000 vehicles, while flagging an adjusted EBITDA loss—essentially its stand-in for operating cash profit—ranging from $1.8 billion to $2.1 billion. The EV maker expects capital expenditures, covering everything from plants to equipment, of $1.95 billion to $2.05 billion. First customer deliveries of the R2 are set for the second quarter; more details about new products and the lineup are coming March 12. Rivian also noted consolidated gross profit for full-year 2025 landed at $144 million.
Piper Sandler analysts didn’t mince words: “nothing matters more than a timely launch for the R2 SUV.” They say Rivian is still “essentially on track.” Over at AJ Bell, head of markets Dan Coatsworth read the fourth-quarter report as a sign the company is “finding its groove”—though it’s still not turning a profit. Reuters
Rivian’s R2, which should hit the market in the second quarter at a base price of about $45,000, is designed to capture a wider audience and take on Tesla’s Model Y directly. “The growth is really, of course, what we see in R2,” CEO RJ Scaringe told Reuters. Over at Zacks, strategist Andrew Rocco noted, “investors are betting they can get the R2 up to scale.” Reuters
Wall Street analysts shifted their tone after the results. Joseph Spak at UBS upgraded shares to Hold from Sell, bumping his price target to $16. Over at Deutsche Bank, Edison Yu now rates the stock a Buy, up from Hold, and set his target at $23, according to .
Rivian posted $1.28 billion in fourth-quarter revenue and a gross profit of $120 million, MarketWatch reported. By the end of 2025, liquidity stood at $6.58 billion. Software and services revenue jumped 109% to $447 million, boosted by the company’s joint venture with Volkswagen, according to the report.
But there’s a cost behind those numbers. Rivian continues to see heavy losses and expects to shell out nearly $2 billion on factories and equipment this year. A stumble in the R2 ramp, or even new price cuts rippling through the EV market, could hurt.
Trading picks up again Tuesday. Investors are looking to see if Friday’s surge sticks around or slips as profit-takers move in. The calendar’s next milestone: March 12, when further R2 info lands. Actual R2 deliveries should begin trickling out in the second quarter.
