Dec. 23, 2025 — Rivian Automotive, Inc. (NASDAQ: RIVN) is trading around $21 in Tuesday’s session, after recently tagging a new 52-week high near $22.68 earlier this week. [1]
The timing matters: Rivian’s late-2025 rally has been powered less by day-to-day delivery noise and more by a reframing of the story—from “EV startup trying to survive” to “software-defined vehicle platform trying to monetize autonomy.” That shift is now colliding with a familiar reality: Wall Street is more optimistic, but still deeply split on how much upside Rivian can unlock—and how quickly.
Rivian stock today: what the tape is saying
As of the latest available trade on Tuesday, Dec. 23, Rivian shares were near $21.06, with the session range roughly $21.02 to $21.83.
That’s a pullback from the recent high-water mark around $22.68, but the bigger point is momentum: RIVN has been repriced upward in December after a burst of product-and-tech headlines—and a flurry of analyst notes arguing the next product cycle could be the one that finally changes Rivian’s unit economics.
The headline catalyst: Rivian’s Autonomy & AI Day (and a direct swing at Tesla)
Rivian’s Autonomy & AI Day on Dec. 11 became the spark for this leg up. The company announced a major push into vertically integrated autonomy, including:
- An in-house self-driving computer chip called the Rivian Autonomy Processor, as Rivian shifts away from Nvidia processors for autonomous-driving compute. [2]
- A new paid driver-assistance bundle called Autonomy+, priced at $2,500 one-time or $49.99 per month (positioned well below Tesla’s pricing). [3]
- A roadmap that targets higher levels of automation over time, including “eyes-off” functionality in 2026, while acknowledging the current systems still require human oversight. [4]
- A sensor strategy that includes LiDAR on the upcoming R2 vehicles, plus a broader “data flywheel” approach to improving assisted driving. [5]
Rivian’s own Autonomy+ page adds two specifics investors tend to obsess over (because they’re measurable): a 60-day trial included with deliveries and an expected February 2026 availability timeline for the subscription. [6]
Why did this land with the market? Because it suggests Rivian isn’t only selling vehicles—it’s trying to build recurring, high-margin software revenue layered onto those vehicles. That’s the same basic financial magic trick Tesla has been selling for years, except Rivian is trying to do it with different ingredients (notably LiDAR).
Analysts’ near-term forecasts: $25 bulls vs. a “Hold” consensus
The rally hasn’t been powered only by product hype. It also got a shove from upgrades and raised price targets, including a new cluster of “2026 is the year” notes.
Some of the most-cited moves:
- Baird upgraded Rivian to Outperform/Buy and lifted its price target to $25 (up from the mid-teens previously), explicitly tying the call to the R2 cycle. [7]
- Wedbush also moved its target to $25 with an Outperform-style stance, again emphasizing the R2 launch setup. [8]
- Needham raised its target to $23, with Reuters noting the firm’s increased confidence in Rivian’s positioning as “software-defined vehicles” become table stakes. [9]
But here’s the split-screen that matters for readers trying to separate signal from adrenaline:
- Broad consensus data still commonly reads “Hold”, with average targets in the mid-teens (well below where the stock is currently trading after the December run). [10]
- A Dec. 23 roundup from 24/7 Wall St. echoes that consensus framing—citing eight Buys, eight Holds, five Sells and a median target around $16.22—while also offering its own, more bearish downside scenario. [11]
- TipRanks’ Dec. 23 piece similarly describes a Hold consensus mix and highlights that target dispersion. [12]
In other words: the bullish targets exist, and they’re loud right now, but the “average analyst” view still implies Rivian has to earn this higher price with execution—not just with a slick autonomy roadmap.
Rivian’s fundamentals backdrop: Q3 2025 showed margin progress, but guidance stayed cautious
Rivian’s most recent detailed financial waypoint is Q3 2025, which showed genuine improvement in some of the numbers investors care about:
- Revenue around $1.56 billion (up 78% year over year) and 13,201 deliveries in the quarter were widely reported as a beat on revenue expectations. [13]
- Rivian’s software and services segment stood out: management cited $416 million in software/services revenue and $154 million in gross profit for that segment, with roughly half of that segment revenue tied to the Volkswagen joint venture activity in the quarter. [14]
- The company also pointed to continued cost progress, though it noted that a planned plant shutdown (preparing Normal, Illinois for R2) pressured fixed-cost absorption during the quarter. [15]
At the same time, Rivian reaffirmed guidance that keeps the “turnaround” narrative on a leash:
- 2025 deliveries:41,500 to 43,500 units [16]
- 2025 adjusted EBITDA loss:$2.0 billion to $2.25 billion [17]
- 2025 capex:$1.8 billion to $1.9 billion [18]
- 2025 gross profit: expected to be roughly break-even [19]
- Liquidity: management cited about $7.1 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments at quarter end. [20]
Rivian also reiterated two funding/lending pillars that investors track because they can extend the runway:
- Potential additional capital of up to $2.5 billion tied to the Volkswagen JV transaction (with $2 billion expected in 2026, per the transcript). [21]
- Continued work with the U.S. Department of Energy on an up to $6.6 billion loan, described as “favorable cost of capital.” [22]
Today’s “fresh takes” on Dec. 23: where the commentary is clustering
A lot of Dec. 23 analysis across finance sites is circling the same gravity wells:
- Ownership / positioning: TipRanks highlighted the recent 52-week high and looked at who owns the company amid the rally. [23]
- Forecast framing: 24/7 Wall St. published a Dec. 23 “price prediction” piece summarizing Street targets and delivering its own scenario-based target. [24]
- Bull-case narrative: Opinion-driven outlets continued to pitch Rivian as an EV name with a potentially stronger setup than some incumbents—largely because R2 + software is a clean, easy story to tell heading into 2026. [25]
These pieces don’t change Rivian’s cash flow by one penny, but they do signal something real: attention is rotating back into Rivian, which can amplify volatility in both directions.
Risks investors are weighing right now
Rivian’s December surge doesn’t erase the risk stack—it mostly rearranges it.
Demand and incentive whiplash
Rivian leadership acknowledged demand pull-forward tied to changes in U.S. EV incentive dynamics, describing a post-incentive “softer demand environment” in the earnings-call transcript. [26]
Reuters also reported Rivian workforce reductions in 2025 in a broader context of weakening demand after key U.S. tax credits expired. [27]
Execution risk: autonomy is expensive, even when it’s “subscription-priced”
Rivian is choosing a heavy lift: autonomy needs hardware, software, and a lot of time-in-distribution (real-world miles). Reuters noted Rivian is aiming long-term at Level 4 autonomy and is training a foundational “Large Driving Model” on real and simulated data. [28]
That kind of effort can become a margin engine—or a money furnace—depending on rollout quality and consumer uptake.
Recalls and operational noise
In early December, Rivian recalled 34,824 electric delivery vans (EDVs) in the U.S. over a seat-belt pretensioner issue tied to repeated misuse. The fix included an over-the-air update plus inspection and replacement as needed, and Rivian stated it was not aware of accidents or injuries tied to the condition. [29]
This recall involves Rivian’s commercial van fleet—not the consumer R1 lineup—but it’s a reminder that scaling vehicles (and fleet customers) comes with industrial-grade quality obligations.
Governance and incentives
Reuters also reported that Rivian overhauled CEO RJ Scaringe’s compensation into a very large, milestone-based package linked to profitability and stock performance—another topic investors often read as a signal about how hard management believes the next phase will be. [30]
The 2026 setup: what matters more than the daily stock price
If you strip out the hype and keep only the variables that can actually move intrinsic value, Rivian’s 2026 narrative boils down to a few trackable questions:
- Can Rivian launch and ramp the R2 on time (first half of 2026) without blowing up costs? Reuters continues to point to an R2 rollout in H1 2026, and analysts are increasingly treating it as the core “inflection” catalyst. [31]
- Does Autonomy+ convert into real, recurring software revenue? The product is priced and dated (February 2026 availability is on Rivian’s own site), so investors will watch attach rates and retention like hawks watch mice. [32]
- Do software/services economics keep improving? Q3 suggested software/services can contribute meaningful gross profit, helped by the VW JV. [33]
- Does Rivian preserve runway? The cash position, JV capital expectations, and the DOE loan process will remain core to any valuation debate. [34]
Bottom line
On Dec. 23, 2025, Rivian stock is trading near $21—not far from a fresh 52-week high—after a December rerating driven by autonomy announcements and a wave of bullish “R2 era” analyst notes. [35]
The bull case is straightforward: R2 expands addressable market + Autonomy+ creates software margin + VW/DOE strengthen the runway. The bear case is just as clean: execution delays, high autonomy costs, and demand pressure keep profitability out of reach longer than the market will tolerate.
This is the part where reality does what it always does—quietly, ruthlessly, and with zero concern for anyone’s price target: it turns 2026 into a scoreboard year.
References
1. au.investing.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. rivian.com, 7. www.investing.com, 8. www.investing.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. stockanalysis.com, 11. 247wallst.com, 12. www.tipranks.com, 13. www.marketwatch.com, 14. www.investing.com, 15. www.investing.com, 16. www.investing.com, 17. www.investing.com, 18. www.investing.com, 19. www.investing.com, 20. www.investing.com, 21. www.investing.com, 22. www.investing.com, 23. www.tipranks.com, 24. 247wallst.com, 25. www.fool.com, 26. www.investing.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. www.reuters.com, 30. www.reuters.com, 31. www.reuters.com, 32. rivian.com, 33. www.investing.com, 34. www.investing.com, 35. au.investing.com
