Today: 7 July 2026
Rivian stock eyes second-half delivery as R2 hype fades
7 July 2026
2 mins read

Rivian’s 75 million-share sale puts focus on stock dilution

NEW YORK, July 7, 2026, 05:02 (EDT)

  • Rivian’s 75 million-share offering is about 5.5% of its common shares as of June 1.
  • At Monday’s close of $20.14, the main sale would come to about $1.51 billion before fees.
  • Rivian bumped its 2026 delivery midpoint by 3,000 units last week. The base sale means 25,000 new shares for every extra vehicle in the forecast.
  • Nasdaq had yet to open for the regular session at 05:02 EDT. July 7 does not appear on the list of 2026 market holidays.

Rivian Automotive, Inc. traded in Nasdaq’s pre-market at 05:02 EDT, outside of regular hours. Nasdaq’s pre-market runs from 4:00 a.m. to 9:30 a.m. ET, with normal trading open from 9:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. The 2026 holiday list puts the Independence Day break on July 3, not July 7.

Rivian finished Monday at $20.14, up 8.1%. But the shares slid 9% after hours after the EV maker announced a public sale of 75 million shares. Reuters said that at the closing price, the deal would bring in about $1.5 billion. Rivian plans to use the money for general corporate purposes, including equity contributions on its Department of Energy loan.

The new stock is the key part for Rivian holders. In its filing, Rivian said it had 1.357 billion Class A shares and 3.9 million Class B shares out as of June 1. The main offering would push Class A shares up to 1.432 billion. Underwriters also have an option for another 11.25 million shares in the next 30 days.

The figures lay out the dilution versus cash choice. The main sale means the share count jumps by roughly 5.5%. If the whole option is taken, the bump goes to around 6.3%.

Dilution itemBase saleWith full underwriter option
Shares issued75.0 mln86.25 mln
% uplift from June 1 shares5.5%6.3%
Gross proceeds at $20.14 close$1.51 bln$1.74 bln
Shares per added 2026 midpoint unit25,00028,750

Rivian upped its 2026 delivery forecast last week, now expecting 65,000 to 70,000 vehicles instead of 62,000 to 67,000. That’s a 3,000 jump at the midpoint. For the second quarter, Rivian built 12,613 vehicles and delivered 12,194.

Rivian handed over 10,365 vehicles in Q1, putting first-half deliveries at 22,559. The company’s updated guidance now calls for 42,441 to 47,441 deliveries in the back half, with the R2 ramp expected to pick up most of that load.

Delivery forecastVehicles
Q1 actual10,365
Q2 actual12,194
First-half total22,559
Previous 2026 outlook62,000–67,000
Updated 2026 outlook65,000–70,000
Needed in second half (new guidance)42,441–47,441

Rivian gave early second-quarter revenue numbers of $1.55 billion to $1.65 billion, topping the $1.45 billion analyst estimate from LSEG. Cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments were $5.3 billion at June 30, rising from $4.8 billion at March 31. All figures are preliminary and unaudited, the company said.

The new cash gives Rivian some breathing space, but it also moves the goalposts for shares. MarketWatch’s numbers put the average analyst target at $18.57, with the median at $18, both under where shares finished on Monday. EPS estimates stay in the red through 2028.

Forecast itemLatest figure
Average analyst target$18.57
Median analyst target$18.00
2026 average EPS-$2.44
2027 average EPS-$1.96
2028 average EPS-$1.26

J.P. Morgan’s Rajat Gupta bumped his Rivian price target up to $15 from $9 but left his Underweight call unchanged, StreetInsider reported. According to Investing.com, the firm is now calling for 68,100 deliveries in 2026, up from 64,900. The 2027 delivery view stays at about 146,000, and the firm has started a 2028 forecast at 180,000 units.

Cantor Fitzgerald’s Andres Sheppard struck a more upbeat tone on the R2. “We continue to expect the R2 line will materially boost sales,” he wrote, per Barron’s, pointing to price and autonomy features. Barron’s

Rivian’s R2 is the reason investors didn’t mind the company selling shares on a bounce. Public deliveries for the R2 began in June. Last week, Reuters said the R2 is key to Rivian’s growth and reported that Rivian boosted its full-year outlook after getting stronger demand for the R1, vans, and the R2.

Rivian CEO RJ Scaringe told The Verge the main ramp-up risk is the supply chain. Ed Kim, president and chief analyst at AutoPacific, said the R2 marks Rivian’s “biggest make-or-break moment yet.” The Verge

Rivian pointed to its dual-class share setup as a barrier for some index inclusion, according to the filing. The company said this structure keeps it out of certain benchmarks, closing the door for some passive funds tracking those indexes. Rivian expects the dual-class system to end in November 2026 with Class B shares converting to Class A.

Rivian plans to release its Q2 results on July 30, the company said.

Marcin Frąckiewicz is the founder and CEO of TS2 Space, a satellite communications company serving customers around the world. A graduate of the Warsaw School of Economics (SGH), he has more than two decades of experience in telecommunications, satellite services and technology ventures. He writes about satellite communications, space technology, artificial intelligence and the stock market, with a particular focus on technology companies, semiconductors, emerging industries and the trends shaping global innovation.

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