Menlo Park, Calif. / New York — December 17, 2025 — Robinhood Markets, Inc. (NASDAQ: HOOD) is back in the spotlight today as investors react to a fresh expansion of its prediction markets product line—this time pushing deeper into sports—alongside new details on its upcoming AI features inside the Robinhood app.
Robinhood shares were trading around $121.82, up about 2.0% on the session as of 15:42 UTC, after moving between roughly $119.30 and $124.69 intraday.
What’s driving the move isn’t a single headline—it’s the collision of three powerful narratives in the HOOD stock story right now:
- Prediction markets are scaling fast (and Robinhood wants to lead the category).
- Regulators are paying closer attention as event contracts start to look more like sports betting.
- Robinhood is adding AI “workflow” tools aimed at turning research into action—particularly for paying subscribers.
Below is what’s new today, what Wall Street is forecasting, and what investors are watching next.
What’s moving Robinhood stock today: more sports “event contracts” and new “preset combos”
Robinhood’s latest catalyst is an expansion in sports-focused event contracts—including contracts tied to individual professional football player performance (e.g., whether a player scores a touchdown, and how many yards they throw, run, or otherwise produce). Reuters reports this new batch rolled out Tuesday, building on earlier sports event contracts that focused on game outcomes. [1]
The company also introduced “preset combos”, which let customers bundle multiple predictions from one game into a single contract that only pays out if every prediction is correct—functionally similar to a parlay-style mechanic. [2]
In Reuters’ reporting, a Robinhood futures executive framed the expansion as a competitive edge—saying the company has been able to refine the product as an early mover, even as new entrants flood the space. [3]
Why this is a bigger deal than “sports betting”: Robinhood is positioning prediction markets as a new asset class
Robinhood’s prediction markets push matters because it’s not being marketed internally as a novelty add-on. Multiple reports today describe it as one of the company’s fastest-growing initiatives:
- Axios says Robinhood reports more than 1 million customers have traded 11 billion contracts since prediction markets debuted late last year—and calls it the fastest-growing revenue line in Robinhood’s history. [4]
- Reuters points to the broader market’s explosive growth, citing a Keyrock + Dune report that the monthly value of trades in prediction markets climbed to over $13 billion, up from under $100 million in early 2024. [5]
The near-term investor takeaway is straightforward: if Robinhood can keep expanding the menu of tradable “events” (sports, politics, economics, culture) while staying on the right side of regulation, prediction markets could become a meaningful driver of engagement, trading frequency, and fee revenue.
But it also raises the bar: after a massive run in 2025, HOOD stock is priced like the market expects these new lines of business to scale—not stall.
The regulatory overhang: CFTC oversight vs. state-level pushback
The same innovation that’s exciting traders is also what makes HOOD a regulation-sensitive stock today.
Reuters notes that critics argue event contracts are similar to sports betting and could encourage more speculative trading by retail investors, while industry players argue these contracts are regulated by—and compliant with—the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the federal derivatives regulator. [6]
At the same time, Reuters highlights that some state regulators are seeking tougher oversight of the industry—an important reminder that this category sits on a contested boundary between “financial derivatives” and “gaming.” [7]
Finance Magnates adds color on that tension, reporting that Connecticut regulators issued cease-and-desist orders to several prediction market platforms (including Robinhood) earlier this year, arguing some sports-linked event contracts resembled unlicensed sports betting under state law. [8]
This is why the prediction markets story is both a growth catalyst and a headline risk: regulatory clarity could unlock expansion, while regulatory conflict could restrict distribution or product design.
The AI catalyst: Robinhood “Cortex” and personalized “Digests” are designed to turn research into action
Robinhood’s second major theme today is AI—specifically Robinhood Cortex, an on-platform assistant intended to help users move from “What’s happening?” to “What should I do?” without leaving the app.
Axios reports Cortex will let users “chat through trading ideas” and then enact orders once it rolls out early next year for Robinhood Gold subscribers. Axios also notes Cortex will use real-time market data, analyst reports, and research, and will power portfolio “Digests” summarizing what’s driving a user’s holdings. [9]
A separate press-release-style report (published via Publicnow and syndicated on MarketScreener) describes Cortex as being designed around:
- Accuracy (sourced from real-time market data plus analyst and research reports),
- Personalization (connecting news and market shifts to a customer’s specific holdings),
- Action (enabling tasks like exploring event contracts and adjusting settings, while keeping the customer in control). [10]
That same report says the new Cortex experience is expected to begin rolling out in Q1 next year to Robinhood Gold subscribers, with Gold priced at $5 per month or $50 annually. [11]
Why investors care: Robinhood has long been an “active retail” platform. AI features that reduce friction between idea → research → trade could increase engagement and retention—especially if paired with prediction markets that operate more like continuous, event-driven trading.
Analyst action today: Truist initiates coverage with a Buy and $155 price target
Alongside product headlines, HOOD also got a Wall Street boost: Truist initiated coverage with a Buy rating and a $155 price target.
Investing.com reports Truist’s view is that Robinhood’s product expansion and “scale economics” position it for sustained growth and margin expansion as it moves “upmarket,” citing “leading product velocity” and share gains. [12]
Based on today’s trading level around $121.82, a $155 target implies roughly 27% upside (though price targets are inherently uncertain and can change quickly). [13]
MarketBeat also summarizes the initiation and reiterates a broader consensus view (details below). [14]
HOOD stock forecast: what consensus price targets are signaling (and why the range matters)
Analyst forecasts on Robinhood remain positive overall—but with wide dispersion, which is typical of high-volatility, high-expectations stocks.
MarketBeat’s analyst snapshot (12-month targets):
- Consensus rating: Moderate Buy
- Average price target: $137.25
- High: $180
- Low: $47 [15]
TipRanks’ recent-coverage snapshot:
- Average price target: $148.74
- High: $181
- Low: $68 [16]
It’s normal for these aggregators to differ because they may use different windows (e.g., last 3 months vs. last 12 months) and different analyst universes. The key investor signal isn’t the exact penny value—it’s that the Street is broadly constructive, but not unanimous, and the target spread suggests meaningful disagreement on how sustainable HOOD’s growth engine is at current valuation.
Earnings outlook and valuation: expectations are rising—and the stock is priced like it
A Zacks analysis published on Nasdaq.com today frames prediction markets as a rapidly expanding growth front and argues Robinhood is pushing to the forefront of that evolution. It also highlights how much optimism is already priced in:
- The article says HOOD shares have soared 222% in the past year. [17]
- It notes Robinhood trades at a premium on a price-to-tangible-book basis (citing P/TB of 13.69x vs an industry average of 3.14x). [18]
- It also states Zacks consensus earnings estimates were revised upward in the past week to $1.96 (2025) and $2.31 (2026). [19]
Meanwhile, HOOD’s current trading metrics also show the market is paying up for growth: at today’s quote, Robinhood’s market cap is roughly $127B, and the stock trades around 58x trailing earnings per the available market data feed.
That combination—strong expected growth plus premium valuation—is exactly why the next phase of the story matters so much:
- If prediction markets and AI tools expand engagement and monetization, the premium can persist.
- If regulators clamp down or user activity cools, high-multiple stocks can re-rate fast.
Another bullish thread: Mizuho’s $172 target and a $300M “run rate” estimate tied to prediction markets
One reason HOOD keeps pulling analyst attention is that prediction markets are being modeled as a real revenue contributor, not just a feature.
A Motley Fool piece published on Nasdaq.com Tuesday (Dec. 16) said Mizuho analyst Dan Dolev reiterated an outperform rating and a $172 price target, and discussed prediction markets as a lucrative segment. The same piece says Dolev estimated Robinhood’s prediction markets “run rate” at $300 million and raised 2026 and 2027 revenue forecasts by 6% to 7%. [20]
Finance Magnates also references an estimate that Robinhood’s prediction markets division is tracking toward roughly $300 million in annual revenue, while emphasizing that the segment is becoming a material revenue contributor. [21]
Investors should treat these as analyst estimates, not company guidance—but they help explain why HOOD’s prediction markets headlines are moving the stock like earnings news.
What investors are watching next
1) Cortex rollout timing and adoption
Both Axios and the Publicnow/MarketScreener release point to rollout early next year / Q1 for Gold subscribers. [22]
The adoption curve—how many users engage with Cortex and whether it increases trading and retention—will likely shape the next leg of the HOOD narrative.
2) Expansion of event categories and “custom combos” in 2026
Axios reports custom combos are expected to be available in 2026—a sign Robinhood intends to keep adding “more power user” tooling to prediction markets. [23]
3) Regulatory developments
The market will be watching for developments that clarify (or complicate) how sports-linked event contracts are treated across jurisdictions—especially as state-level enforcement and federal derivatives oversight remain in tension. [24]
4) Next earnings window
Earnings date estimates vary by provider; for example, MarketScreener lists a projected Q4 2025 earnings release on Feb. 17, 2026, while Barchart lists Feb. 11, 2026 as the next earnings release date. [25]
Until Robinhood confirms a date, investors should treat these as projections.
Bottom line for HOOD stock on Dec. 17, 2025
Robinhood stock is trading like a company that has found a new “engine” (prediction markets) and is adding a new “interface” (Cortex AI) meant to keep users in the app, engaged, and acting on information. Today’s coverage and analyst notes reinforce that Wall Street is increasingly focused on how big this can become—and how much regulatory friction might get in the way.
With shares still up sharply over the last year and valuation metrics elevated, HOOD’s next moves will likely be judged less on announcements and more on measurable adoption, monetization, and regulatory durability. [26]
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.axios.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.financemagnates.com, 9. www.axios.com, 10. fxnewsgroup.com, 11. fxnewsgroup.com, 12. ng.investing.com, 13. ng.investing.com, 14. www.marketbeat.com, 15. www.marketbeat.com, 16. www.tipranks.com, 17. www.nasdaq.com, 18. www.nasdaq.com, 19. www.nasdaq.com, 20. www.nasdaq.com, 21. www.financemagnates.com, 22. www.axios.com, 23. www.axios.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.marketscreener.com, 26. www.nasdaq.com
