New York — Friday, December 26, 2025 (2:05 p.m. ET).
Robinhood Markets, Inc. (NASDAQ: HOOD) is trading in a holiday-thin, post‑Christmas U.S. session with major indexes hovering near record levels—an environment that can amplify single‑stock moves on comparatively light volume. [1]
As of mid‑afternoon in New York, HOOD is around $120 per share, down modestly on the day, while the broader market is mixed: SPY is fractionally lower and QQQ is slightly higher.
That “quiet tape” backdrop matters for Robinhood more than many large‑cap names. HOOD has become one of the market’s most sentiment‑sensitive retail-fintech stocks—levered to risk appetite, crypto volatility, options activity, and now, an accelerating push into prediction markets and related exchange infrastructure. [2]
Below is what’s moving Robinhood right now, what the latest operating and earnings data says, where Wall Street’s forecasts sit, and what investors should keep on their radar into the close and the next trading sessions.
Robinhood stock price check: where HOOD is trading right now
At 2:05 p.m. ET, U.S. stock markets are open (regular session), and HOOD is trading near $120, with a market cap just over $100 billion.
A few quick context points from market data:
- HOOD’s 52‑week range has been wide, reflecting both company execution and swings in retail risk appetite.
- Trading volume today is below its recent average, consistent with the holiday week. [3]
- The broader market is steady near highs, with Reuters describing indexes “hovering” close to records in thin post‑Christmas trade. [4]
Why this matters: when liquidity is thin, headlines (and even order‑flow imbalances) can move high‑beta stocks like HOOD faster than usual—particularly ones tied to retail trading behavior. [5]
The big macro backdrop: record highs, thin liquidity, and “prove‑it” 2026 expectations
Reuters’ market reporting on Friday notes that U.S. indexes have been near all‑time highs in the post‑Christmas session, with investors balancing enthusiasm around AI and the economy against valuation concerns and year‑end positioning. [6]
Looking into next week and early 2026, Reuters’ “Week Ahead” piece highlights several market-moving themes investors are tracking:
- Fed minutes due Tuesday next week (per Reuters), a potential catalyst for rates and risk assets. [7]
- Expectations around future rate cuts, after the Fed lowered rates by 75 bps over its last three meetings of 2025, leaving the benchmark at 3.50%–3.75% (Reuters). [8]
- The idea that 2026 could be a “prove‑it” year, with markets demanding tangible productivity and margin gains from AI and other investments (Annex Wealth’s Brian Jacobsen, via Reuters). [9]
For Robinhood, that macro setup is not abstract. Interest rates affect net interest revenue; equity and crypto sentiment affects trading activity; and “prove‑it” expectations can pressure valuation-sensitive growth stocks if results disappoint.
Latest Robinhood news: prediction markets are getting bigger—and more regulated
1) Robinhood expands sports-focused event contracts
One of the most prominent late‑December catalysts is Robinhood’s expansion of sports-oriented event contracts—including contracts tied to individual professional football players’ performance (touchdowns, yards, etc.). Reuters reports Robinhood also introduced “preset combos” that bundle multiple picks into one contract structure. [10]
This is part of a broader strategy: keep Robinhood’s power users engaged with more “tradeable moments,” even when equity markets are calm.
Regulatory angle: Reuters notes the expansion is happening while some state regulators seek tighter oversight, and critics argue event contracts resemble sports betting and could encourage speculative behavior. Robinhood has emphasized compliance under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) framework, according to Reuters reporting that includes comments from Robinhood’s Adam Hickerson. [11]
2) Robinhood and Susquehanna’s exchange push: LedgerX / MIAXdx infrastructure
Robinhood’s prediction‑markets ambitions go beyond a simple front-end product.
In late November, Reuters reported Robinhood and Susquehanna International Group agreed to acquire a 90% stake in LedgerX, a regulated exchange previously associated with FTX, with plans to introduce a futures and derivatives exchange and clearinghouse via a joint venture. Reuters said the transaction is expected to close in Q1 2026, with operations expected to begin in 2026. [12]
Separately, Miami International Holdings (MIAX) announced an agreement to sell 90% of MIAX Derivatives Exchange (MIAXdx) to Robinhood in partnership with Susquehanna, while MIAX retains 10%. MIAX describes MIAXdx as a Designated Contract Market (DCM) and Derivatives Clearing Organization (DCO) regulated by the CFTC—licenses that are valuable if Robinhood wants to scale event contracts and adjacent derivatives products. [13]
3) Robinhood is “open to deals” in prediction markets, exec tells Reuters
The M&A angle isn’t hypothetical. In October, Reuters reported Robinhood said it is open to potential acquisitions in prediction markets if the right fit appears, quoting JB Mackenzie (VP/GM of Futures and International) discussing a build‑vs‑buy approach. [14]
That same Reuters report cited Piper Sandler estimates that Robinhood’s event‑contract revenue run‑rate was annualizing above $200 million in September, and included an estimate that Robinhood users represent about 25%–35% of Kalshi volumes on a given day. [15]
Bottom line: prediction markets are increasingly central to the HOOD bull case—both as a revenue driver and as a strategic wedge into regulated market infrastructure.
Fresh operating data: what Robinhood reported for November 2025
In a December 10 release distributed via GlobeNewswire, Robinhood reported key monthly operating metrics for November 2025, including:
- 26.9 million funded customers (down ~130,000 vs. October; up ~2.10 million year‑over‑year). [16]
- Total platform assets of $325 billion (down 5% month‑over‑month; up 67% year‑over‑year). [17]
- Net deposits of $7.1 billion in November (25% annualized growth rate vs. October total platform assets; $70.2 billion over the last 12 months). [18]
- Trading volumes in November:
The release also notes a required escheatment of ~280,000 low-balance accounts that weighed on funded customer counts; without that, the company said funded customers would have increased by ~150,000 in November. [23]
How investors are reading this data: the November report paints a mixed picture—strong deposits and year‑over‑year asset growth, but softer month‑over‑month trading activity after October’s higher activity and fewer trading days in November. The continued growth in event contracts traded is particularly notable in light of Robinhood’s product push and exchange strategy. [24]
Earnings and profitability: what Q3 2025 results showed
Robinhood’s most recent quarterly earnings season (Q3 2025, reported in early November) reinforced the narrative of improving profitability and revenue diversification.
What the SEC filing showed
In its Q3 2025 earnings release filed with the SEC (Exhibit 99.1), Robinhood reported:
- Total net revenues up 100% year‑over‑year to $1.27 billion (record). [25]
- Transaction-based revenues up 129% to $730 million, with crypto revenue $268M, options $304M, and equities $86M cited in the release. [26]
- Net income up 271% to $556 million and diluted EPS of $0.61. [27]
- Funded customers at 26.8 million (up 2.5 million y/y), total platform assets at $333 billion (up 119% y/y), and Gold subscribers at 3.9 million (up 77% y/y). [28]
The filing also explicitly pointed to Prediction Markets and Bitstamp as newly meaningful business lines, saying Robinhood had expanded to 11 business lines generating roughly $100 million or more in annualized revenue. [29]
What Reuters emphasized (and the CFO transition)
Reuters’ coverage of the Q3 report highlighted profit nearly quadrupling (to the same $556 million figure) and noted CFO Jason Warnick plans to retire in 2026, with Shiv Verma named as successor. Reuters also reported that Robinhood raised its 2025 adjusted operating expense forecast to about $2.28 billion (including stock-based comp). [30]
Reuters quoted Warnick describing the customer base as younger with longer time horizons, and also cited a bullish outside take from Zacks strategist David Bartosiak calling Robinhood a “fintech juggernaut” (Reuters). [31]
Regulatory and headline risk: what could trip up HOOD
Even with strong growth, Robinhood remains a company where regulation can shift the story quickly.
SEC settlement: $45 million fine over recordkeeping and other violations
In January 2025, Reuters reported Robinhood agreed to pay $45 million to settle SEC charges tied to recordkeeping, trade reporting, and other rule violations, including issues around off‑channel communications and “blue sheet” data submissions. [32]
While that settlement is not “new” today, it remains part of the risk framework investors consider—especially as Robinhood expands into new products that draw scrutiny.
Prediction markets: growth meets oversight
The prediction markets surge has attracted both competitors and regulators:
- Reuters reported Robinhood’s sports event contracts expansion comes as some state regulators seek tougher oversight, with critics comparing event contracts to sports betting. [33]
- Reuters also reported prediction markets gained momentum around U.S. elections and have expanded into a broader asset class, with major exchanges and institutions showing interest. [34]
For HOOD investors, a key question is whether Robinhood can keep growing event contracts while staying squarely inside CFTC rules—and whether future legal or political shifts change the addressable market.
Growth strategy beyond the U.S.: WonderFi deal updates and international expansion
Robinhood’s crypto strategy has increasingly leaned global, using acquisitions and partnerships to expand licensing and distribution.
WonderFi (Canada): timeline has shifted
Reuters reported in May 2025 that Robinhood agreed to buy Canadian crypto firm WonderFi for C$250 million (about $179 million), an all‑cash transaction valuing shares at a premium, as part of its international expansion strategy. [35]
More recently, WonderFi announced on December 19, 2025 that it extended the outside date for completing the Robinhood transaction to June 1, 2026, citing added time needed for integration enhancements and regulatory approvals. [36]
Bitstamp and institutional crypto reach
Robinhood’s expansion into crypto exchange infrastructure has also centered on Bitstamp (and related reporting around that push). Reuters has previously covered Robinhood’s Bitstamp deal (announced in 2024), framing it as part of a broader push into digital assets and financial services. [37]
Analyst forecasts for Robinhood stock: what Wall Street expects next
Forecasts for HOOD remain unusually dispersed—typical for a stock tied to retail trading intensity, crypto sentiment, and regulatory evolution.
Price targets: wide range, bullish average in some datasets
- TipRanks shows an average 12‑month price target around $153 with a high forecast near $181 and a low near $68 (based on its tracked analyst set). [38]
- TradingView similarly reflects analyst targets clustered around the mid‑$150s, with a cited maximum around $180 and minimum estimates near the low‑$90s (TradingView’s compilation). [39]
- StockAnalysis shows a consensus “Buy” rating but an average price target closer to $121 (with a wide low-to-high range), underscoring how much depends on which analysts and time windows a dataset captures. [40]
How to interpret the spread: bull targets generally assume Robinhood can (1) keep net deposits strong, (2) sustain elevated options/crypto engagement, and (3) scale prediction markets into a meaningful, durable revenue line—potentially with exchange economics. Bears tend to focus on rate sensitivity (net interest margin compression if cuts continue), competitive pressure, and the risk that prediction markets face tighter constraints.
What investors should watch into the close and before the next session
Because the market is open right now, the most practical question is what could move HOOD into the close today and into next week’s final trading days of 2025.
1) Holiday liquidity cuts both ways
Reuters has emphasized thin post‑Christmas trading conditions. In this tape, sudden moves—especially in high‑beta fintech and retail favorites—can be exaggerated. [41]
2) Year‑end positioning and “Santa Claus rally” dynamics
Reuters notes investors are watching whether the “Santa Claus rally” period materializes into early January. While seasonality doesn’t dictate outcomes, year‑end rebalancing can create sharp factor rotations—something HOOD can feel quickly because it sits at the intersection of growth, fintech, and retail activity. [42]
3) Fed minutes next week and rate-cut expectations
Reuters flagged Fed minutes as a key upcoming event and described markets as highly focused on the path of rate cuts in 2026. For Robinhood, lower short‑term rates can pressure net interest revenue even as balances grow—making upcoming macro commentary especially relevant. [43]
4) Prediction markets: product velocity + legal headlines
Robinhood has multiple moving parts here:
- Product expansion (sports contracts, combo-style products). [44]
- Infrastructure M&A (LedgerX/MIAXdx routes). [45]
- Ongoing regulatory debate about what event contracts should be treated as. [46]
Any incremental headline—positive or negative—can land harder in a quiet market.
5) Watch Robinhood’s own operating cadence
Robinhood has been publishing monthly operating data, and investors have been reacting to:
- Net deposits and platform assets (a gauge of customer stickiness) [47]
- Options and equities volume trends [48]
- Crypto volume splits (Robinhood app vs. Bitstamp) [49]
- Event contract growth [50]
If HOOD’s story in 2025 was “retail engagement didn’t fade—it professionalized,” the 2026 setup becomes whether that engagement can stay durable across market regimes. [51]
The takeaway: why HOOD remains a high-volatility, headline-driven fintech bellwether
Robinhood stock is trading in a market that’s steady near highs, but the company itself is in the middle of several fast-moving narratives:
- Operating momentum (strong deposits and large platform assets) [52]
- Earnings strength and diversification (Q3 profit and revenue growth, multiple business lines scaling) [53]
- Prediction markets shifting from “product feature” to “strategic pillar,” including exchange infrastructure and partnerships [54]
- Regulatory risk that can reprice the stock quickly [55]
- Forecast dispersion that reflects how sensitive HOOD is to macro, rates, and retail risk appetite [56]
For investors, the practical approach into the final trading days of the year is to separate what’s measurable (deposits, assets, volumes, margins, expense guidance) from what’s path-dependent (prediction markets regulation, competitive moves, and broader risk sentiment). [57]
References
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