Robinhood Markets (NASDAQ: HOOD) is ending the week as one of 2025’s most dramatic comeback stories. The stock closed on Friday, December 5, at $131.95, down 3.74% on the day, after a volatile week tied closely to Bitcoin’s swings. [1]
Despite that pullback, Robinhood is still the best‑performing stock in the S&P 500 in 2025, with roughly 240%+ one‑year gains, according to NerdWallet and Investor’s Business Daily. [2] Motley Fool and other outlets peg the 12‑month gain in the same ballpark, meaning a $1,000 position a year ago would now be worth more than $3,000. [3]
Below is a deep dive into the latest news, forecasts, and analyses as of December 7, 2025, and what they might mean for Robinhood stock from here.
Robinhood Stock Today: Price, Performance and Volatility
- Latest close: $131.95 on December 5, 2025, after a 3.74% single‑day drop. [4]
- Recent moves:
- +6.11% on Dec 3
- +2.20% on Dec 2
- –4.09% on Dec 1 [5]
- 52‑week range: $29.66 – $153.86
- Market cap: Roughly $120–127 billion, depending on the data provider and intraday pricing. [6]
- Beta: Around 2.4, meaning Robinhood is more than twice as volatile as the overall market. [7]
NerdWallet ranks Robinhood as the top S&P 500 performer with a 240.44% one‑year return and about 243% year‑to‑date gain as of December 3. [8] TickerNerd, using a slightly different cut‑off, shows a 216.7% one‑year gain and 254.1% year‑to‑date. [9] However you slice it, the stock has more than tripled over 12 months.
Short‑term moves are still heavily tied to crypto prices:
- On December 1, Robinhood fell roughly 4–5% as Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies sold off, with Investopedia explicitly grouping HOOD among “crypto‑tied” stocks that dropped on the day. [10]
- The next day, Robinhood rebounded as Bitcoin bounced back above $91,000. [11]
- A Motley Fool piece (also syndicated by Nasdaq and AOL) notes that a 7% plunge in Bitcoin dragged HOOD lower earlier in the week, while Bitcoin’s mid‑week recovery sent Robinhood up about 6% intraday. [12]
In other words: Robinhood has become a leveraged bet not just on retail trading, but on crypto sentiment.
Q3 2025: A Breakout Earnings Quarter
Robinhood’s fundamentals finally caught up with the hype in 2025, and Q3 2025 was the clearest proof so far.
According to the company’s November 5 results release: [13]
- Total net revenue:$1.27 billion, up 100% year over year.
- Net income:$556 million, up 271% year over year.
- Diluted EPS:$0.61, up 259% year over year.
- Adjusted EBITDA:$742 million, up 177% year over year.
Revenue growth was broad‑based:
- Transaction‑based revenue: $730 million (+129% YoY)
- Crypto: $268m, up 300%+
- Options: $304m, up 50%
- Equities: $86m, up 132%
- Net interest revenue: $456m (+66% YoY)
- Other revenue: $88m (+100% YoY), largely from more Robinhood Gold subscribers. [14]
Key platform metrics also surged:
- Funded customers: 26.8 million (+10% YoY)
- Investment accounts: 27.9 million (+11% YoY)
- Total platform assets:$333 billion, up 119% YoY
- Net deposits: $20.4 billion in Q3 alone; $68.3 billion over the last 12 months
- Average revenue per user (ARPU):$191, up 82% YoY
- Robinhood Gold subscribers:3.9 million, up 77% YoY. [15]
TickerNerd’s aggregate data suggests Robinhood is now running at roughly $4.2 billion in trailing 12‑month revenue with net margins above 50%, a staggering level for a brokerage‑cum‑crypto platform. [16]
There is one notable caveat: expenses rose 31% year over year, driven by marketing, growth initiatives, and acquisition costs, and management has guided full‑year 2025 adjusted operating expenses plus stock‑based comp to roughly $2.28 billion, a bit above earlier plans as they lean into new growth areas. [17]
Growth Engines: Prediction Markets, Crypto and Tokenized Stocks
Prediction markets and event contracts
One of the biggest 2025 storylines for Robinhood is its push into event contracts, often referred to as prediction markets.
From the Q3 release and subsequent commentary: [18]
- Robinhood launched “Pro and College Football” event contracts in its Prediction Markets hub.
- Total event contracts traded more than doubled sequentially to 2.3 billion in Q3, and October alone saw 2.5 billion contracts, more than all of Q3.
- Management has described prediction markets as one of its fastest‑growing revenue streams.
Investor’s Business Daily reported that Robinhood shares recently led the S&P 500 after the company announced plans to expand prediction markets via a new futures and derivatives exchange and clearinghouse, in partnership with Susquehanna International Group and acquisitions tied to crypto derivatives infrastructure. [19]
The basic idea: Robinhood is trying to build a regulated, mass‑market version of Polymarket‑style event betting, but wrapped inside a futures‑exchange structure that falls under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) rather than state gambling laws.
Tokenization and international expansion
Robinhood is also making an aggressive bet that tokenized assets will be a big part of finance’s future.
Highlights from Reuters and FinTech Magazine: [20]
- In June, Robinhood launched stock tokens in the EU, allowing customers to trade more than 200 U.S. stocks and ETFs (Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, etc.) as blockchain‑based tokens, tradable 24 hours a day, 5 days a week.
- The company plans to roll out tokens linked to private companies, starting with OpenAI and SpaceX, and eventually expand the stock‑token universe to “thousands” of names.
- CEO Vlad Tenev has talked up “Robinhood Chain”, an in‑house blockchain built for tokenized assets, with an eventual goal of 24/7 trading.
- Robinhood has completed its Bitstamp acquisition (~$200m) and agreed to acquire Canadian crypto platform WonderFi (~$179m), deepening its international crypto and tokenization infrastructure.
At the same time, these products are already drawing regulatory scrutiny. Lithuania’s regulator has reportedly questioned the legal status of some of its tokens, and OpenAI has publicly distanced itself from the unofficial “OpenAI tokens.” [21]
Regulatory Clouds: Prediction Markets in the Crosshairs
The flip side of Robinhood’s product innovation is a rising regulatory risk profile.
On December 4, 2025, Connecticut’s Department of Consumer Protection issued cease‑and‑desist orders to three prediction‑market platforms: Kalshi, Robinhood Derivatives and Crypto.com, accusing them of offering unlicensed online sports wagering to state residents, including those under 21. [22]
Key points from the CT Insider report:
- Connecticut argues that “sports event contracts” offered by platforms like Robinhood Derivatives amount to illegal sports betting under state law.
- The state ordered the platforms to stop advertising and offering prediction contracts and to allow residents to withdraw funds.
- Regulators criticized a lack of integrity controls and warned of risks like insiders betting on events where they know the outcome.
Robinhood’s response: a spokesperson said its event contracts are federally regulated by the CFTC and offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC, a CFTC‑registered entity, stressing that they give retail customers access to prediction markets “in a safe, compliant, and regulated manner.” [23]
Smartkarma and other analyst notes this week highlight Connecticut’s move as a new overhang on the stock, not necessarily because of immediate revenue impact, but because it spotlights a growing tug‑of‑war between federal financial regulators and state gaming authorities over event‑based trading. [24]
Layer this on top of ongoing global scrutiny of crypto and tokenization, and Robinhood’s regulatory map is getting crowded.
From Meme Stock to S&P 500 Star
Robinhood’s stock is no longer just a meme‑era curiosity. In September, S&P Dow Jones Indices added Robinhood to the S&P 500, alongside AppLovin and Emcor Group, effective September 22. [25]
FinTech Magazine and other outlets frame that step as the culmination of a transformation “from meme stock enabler to institutional‑grade financial services provider,” noting: [26]
- Q2 2025 revenue of $989 million, up 45% year over year, with net income more than doubling to $386 million.
- Millions of funded accounts and hundreds of billions in customer assets.
- Expansion into retirement accounts, advisory products (“Robinhood Strategies”), and a Gold credit card.
Index inclusion has also had mechanical effects:
- Passive index funds and ETFs that track the S&P 500 must now hold HOOD, creating steady underlying demand.
- Investor’s Business Daily calls Robinhood “the newest S&P 500 stock and the index’s top performer in 2025.” [27]
Meanwhile, Ark Invest and other high‑profile institutional investors have bought sizable stakes in Robinhood during earlier crypto‑driven sell‑offs, signaling that the shareholder base is much more institutional than in the meme days. [28]
Wall Street’s View: Analyst Ratings and Price Targets
If you zoom in on the last few days, most of the fresh analysis and forecasts from December 2025 share a common theme: great business momentum, richly valued stock.
Across major data providers:
- MarketBeat:
- 23 analysts, consensus rating: “Moderate Buy”
- Average 12‑month price target: $136.95
- Range: $47 (low) – $180 (high)
- Implied upside vs. ~$131.95: ~3.8%. [29]
- StockAnalysis:
- 21 analysts, consensus “Buy”
- Average target: $119.62, which is about 9% below the current price
- Range: $47 – $180, median target $135. [30]
- Benzinga:
- 25 analysts, consensus target $123.35
- High: $180 (Citizens, Nov 7)
- Low: $47 (J.P. Morgan, May 1)
- The three most recent ratings (Needham twice, Citizens once) average $156.67, implying ~18.7% upside from $131.95. [31]
- TickerNerd (update timestamp December 6, 2025):
- 30 analysts, overall rating “Strong Buy” (8.1/10)
- Median target: $155 (range $86 – $180)
- Implied upside: ~17.5%, based on $131.95. [32]
- MarketWatch (snippet):
- Average recommendation: Overweight
- Average target price around $155 based on 23 ratings. [33]
The most visible fresh moves this week:
- Needham’s John Todaro reiterated a Strong Buy / Buy rating on December 5 with a $145 price target, preserving an estimated ~10% upside. [34]
- Earlier in November, multiple banks lifted their targets into the $150–$170+ range (Barclays to $168, Cantor to $155, Mizuho to $172, BofA to $157, Goldman Sachs to $152, Morgan Stanley to $146, etc.). [35]
On the quantitative side, Zacks currently assigns Robinhood a Rank #1 (Strong Buy) after the consensus EPS estimate for this year was raised about 8.9% over the past month, a sign of improving earnings expectations. [36]
Bottom line: Wall Street mostly likes the business and the trajectory, but there’s disagreement about whether the stock has already outrun its fundamentals. Some datasets show modest upside from here; others see slight downside as analysts’ older targets struggle to keep up with the rally.
Earnings and Revenue Forecasts
StockAnalysis aggregates analyst models to project what Robinhood’s income statement could look like from here: [37]
- Revenue 2024 (actual): ~$2.95 billion
- Revenue 2025 (forecast):$4.57 billion (+54.9% YoY)
- Revenue 2026 (forecast):$5.59 billion (+22.4% YoY)
Earnings per share (EPS):
- EPS 2024 (actual): ~$1.56 per share
- EPS 2025 (forecast):$2.07 (+32.7% YoY)
- EPS 2026 (forecast):$2.57 (+24.2% YoY)
TickerNerd’s metrics echo that story, highlighting: [38]
- Revenue growth: +100% year‑over‑year (trailing)
- Net margin: ~52%
- Return on equity (ROE): ~27.8%
At the current price, that implies:
- P/E multiple: roughly 55–58x trailing earnings
- Price‑to‑sales: around 28x
- PEG ratio (P/E vs. growth): around 0.2 on some models, suggesting growth is high relative to the valuation if those growth rates persist. [39]
This is high‑growth tech stock territory in terms of valuation, not the low‑multiple world of traditional brokerages.
What the Latest Commentaries Are Saying (Dec 7, 2025)
A cluster of fresh articles dated December 6–7 focuses on two questions: how much of the rally is left, and how much of it is crypto‑beta?
- “Where Will Robinhood Stock Be in 1 Year?” (Motley Fool, Dec 7) emphasizes that Robinhood is thriving in a strong bull market with elevated trading activity, but that the stock has been moving in lockstep with Bitcoin, amplifying crypto cycles. [40]
- Another Motley Fool piece from December 6 calculates that a $1,000 investment in Robinhood a year ago would now be worth around $3,400–$3,500, while cautioning that such returns are unlikely to repeat indefinitely. [41]
- FinViz and Barchart note that despite being up more than 200% year‑to‑date, Robinhood is still roughly 10–18% below its October high near $153–$154, reflecting recent consolidation and crypto‑driven pullbacks. [42]
- Zacks coverage this week frames Robinhood as a “top finance stock” with a Strong Buy rank, driven by upward revisions to earnings estimates and strong post‑earnings price action. [43]
- Smartkarma’s December note ties the latest 3.7% pullback to 131.95 directly to both crypto volatility and the Connecticut prediction‑market order, arguing that investors are now trying to price a more complex regulatory path. [44]
In short: popular analysis right now is bullish on the business, cautious on the stock’s short‑term risk profile.
Key Risks for Robinhood Stock
For all the good news, Robinhood is not a “sleep‑at‑night” blue chip yet. Some of the biggest risks:
- Crypto and speculative‑trading dependence
Crypto trading, options, and event contracts are enormous revenue contributors. Q3 results showed transaction‑based revenue dominated by crypto and options, and multiple market reports tie HOOD’s daily moves to Bitcoin. [45] A deep crypto bear market or sharp drop in retail trading activity could hit both revenue and margins. - Regulatory uncertainty
- State regulators like Connecticut are already challenging prediction markets as illegal sports betting. [46]
- European regulators are probing the legality of some tokenized products. [47]
- U.S. agencies (SEC, CFTC) continue to evolve their stance on crypto, staking, and derivatives.
Any adverse ruling could force Robinhood to modify or shut down high‑growth product lines.
- High valuation and execution risk
With a P/E north of 50 and price‑to‑sales around the high‑20s, Robinhood is priced for continued rapid growth and very high profitability. [48] If revenue growth slows faster than expected, or margins compress, multiple contraction could hurt the stock even if earnings stay positive. - Market‑cycle sensitivity
Even if Robinhood’s long‑term user base keeps growing, trading volumes tend to be cyclical: they explode during hot markets (AI, crypto, meme phases) and fade in flat or fearful environments. That makes earnings and the stock inherently more volatile than those of a traditional asset‑management firm. - Leadership and transition risk
CFO Jason Warnick plans to retire, with long‑time finance executive Shiv Verma stepping into the CFO role next year. [49] Large leadership transitions at a fast‑growing fintech can introduce uncertainty around capital allocation, expense discipline, and risk management.
Is Robinhood Stock a Buy Now?
Whether Robinhood stock is attractive at current levels depends heavily on time horizon and risk tolerance, not just on its recent scorching performance.
Bull case highlights
- Robinhood has pivoted from meme stock pioneer to highly profitable, rapidly growing S&P 500 constituent, with triple‑digit revenue and earnings growth. [50]
- It’s building a differentiated platform around prediction markets, tokenized assets, international crypto trading, and AI‑driven tools for active traders, which could expand its total addressable market well beyond traditional zero‑commission stock trading. [51]
- Most Wall Street coverage still skews positive, with recent price targets clustered in the $140–$170 range and multiple “Buy” or “Strong Buy” ratings issued or reiterated in late November and early December. [52]
Bear case highlights
- After a 200%+ rally, the stock trades at rich tech‑style multiples and has already priced in a lot of good news. [53]
- Revenue is still heavily tied to risk‑on behavior (crypto, options, event contracts), which can evaporate when markets turn defensive. [54]
- Regulatory pushback on prediction markets and tokenized assets is still in early innings and may intensify. [55]
- Some analyst datasets now show average price targets below the current share price, suggesting limited upside unless estimates move higher again. [56]
For short‑term traders, Robinhood remains a high‑beta play on crypto and speculative activity—potentially rewarding, but prone to sharp swings in both directions.
For long‑term investors, the question is whether Robinhood’s push into prediction markets, tokenization, and global wealth management can sustain high growth and fat margins long enough to justify today’s valuation and then some. The latest earnings and analyst revisions suggest it might, but the regulatory and cyclical risks are very real.
References
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