Updated: December 6, 2025
Robinhood Markets Inc (NASDAQ: HOOD) has turned into one of 2025’s most watched stocks. After a bruising post‑IPO period, the broker has roared back thanks to surging profits, a bold bet on prediction markets, and aggressive expansion into credit cards and wealth management.
As of the latest session, Robinhood stock trades around $131.95, giving the company a market value of roughly $127 billion and putting its price/earnings ratio near 58 on trailing earnings. Investors’ Business Daily recently highlighted Robinhood as one of the top gainers in the S&P 500 this year, with the shares up well over 200% year‑to‑date as of late November. [1]
Below is a deep dive into the latest news, forecasts and analysis on Robinhood stock as of December 6, 2025, aimed at readers following HOOD on Google News and Discover.
1. Where Robinhood Stock Stands Right Now
Robinhood’s share price has been volatile in early December. The stock is trading just below recent highs after a sharp run‑up driven by strong third‑quarter earnings and excitement over its move deeper into prediction markets.
- Current price: ~$131.95
- Day move: down about 3.7% from the prior close, reflecting a $5.11 decline from roughly $137.06.
- Market cap: about $127.2 billion
- Trailing EPS: ~$2.40, implying a trailing P/E around 58.
The stock continues to show sensitivity to crypto sentiment. Earlier this week, Barron’s noted that Robinhood shares fell roughly 3% in tandem with a 5% drop in Bitcoin, underscoring how closely HOOD trades with digital-asset risk appetite. [2]
At the same time, year‑to‑date performance remains spectacular: Robinhood has more than tripled in 2025, buoyed by surging revenues, higher net interest income and the success of new products like its Gold credit card and robo‑advisor. [3]
2. Q3 2025: Profits and Growth Shift the Narrative
The turning point for the current rally was Robinhood’s third‑quarter 2025 earnings, released on November 5.
According to the company’s results:
- Total net revenues doubled year‑over‑year to about $1.27 billion, up 100% from roughly $637 million in Q3 2024. [4]
- Transaction‑based revenues (trading in stocks, options, crypto and event contracts) jumped 129% to about $730 million. [5]
- Net interest revenues (margin loans, cash balances, securities lending, credit-card related interest and similar) climbed 66% to around $456 million. [6]
- Net income soared to $556 million, up 271% from $150 million a year earlier. Diluted EPS increased from $0.17 to $0.61. [7]
For the first nine months of 2025, Robinhood generated $3.19 billion in net revenue (up 65% year‑over‑year) and $1.28 billion in net income, more than doubling last year’s profit. [8]
Beyond headline profits, management highlighted powerful operating trends in a supplemental filing with the SEC:
- Retirement assets under custody (AUC) reached $24.2 billion, up 144% year‑over‑year.
- Cash sweep balances rose 44% to $35.4 billion, a key driver of net interest income.
- Margin loan balances (“Margin Book”) climbed 153% to $13.9 billion, reflecting higher leverage use.
- Equity notional trading volume hit a record $647 billion, up 126% year‑over‑year.
- Crypto trading volumes totaled $80 billion in the quarter, evenly split between the Robinhood app and Bitstamp, which it acquired. [9]
Robinhood’s investor relations site indicates the platform now serves roughly 27 million funded customers and holds more than $300 billion of customer assets, with last‑twelve‑month net deposit growth around 40%+. [10]
In short, Q3 2025 confirmed what the share price had been hinting at: Robinhood is no longer just a meme‑stock darling but a highly profitable, scaled brokerage and fintech platform.
3. The Big Bet on Prediction Markets
The freshest and most consequential strategic news for HOOD in late 2025 is its aggressive move into prediction markets and event‑based futures.
3.1 Joint venture with Susquehanna and LedgerX acquisition
On November 25, Reuters reported that Robinhood and trading giant Susquehanna International Group agreed to acquire a 90% stake in LedgerX, a CFTC‑regulated exchange previously owned by Miami International Holdings (MIAX). MIAX will retain a 10% interest. [11]
The deal will underpin a new futures and derivatives exchange and clearinghouse focused on prediction markets and crypto-linked products. The exchange is expected to begin operations in 2026, pending regulatory approvals. [12]
The Wall Street Journal and other outlets note that the new venue will list contracts tied to sports, elections, macroeconomic data and other events, enabling Robinhood to vertically integrate its fast‑growing event‑contracts business rather than relying solely on third‑party providers like Kalshi. [13]
3.2 YES/NO and the prediction hub
Internally, Robinhood has been promoting its YES/NO “prediction hub” — a dedicated area in the app where users can trade event contracts in a simple yes/no format. Company communications and coverage of its recent keynote event suggest that prediction markets are now one of Robinhood’s fastest‑growing product lines. [14]
Recent company and media disclosures indicate:
- More than 1 million customers have traded event contracts.
- Over 9 billion contracts have been traded in the product’s first year. [15]
- Q3 2025 alone saw 2.3 billion event contracts traded, more than double the prior quarter, with October volumes exceeding the entire third quarter. [16]
An Investopedia piece covering the joint venture noted that Robinhood shares jumped around 10% after the prediction markets announcement, making HOOD one of the top gainers in the S&P 500 in the days that followed. [17]
Investor takeaway: Robinhood is positioning itself as a one‑stop shop for trading stocks, options, crypto and event contracts, with its own CFTC‑licensed exchange infrastructure — a move that could meaningfully grow fee and spread revenues, but also increases regulatory scrutiny.
4. New Regulatory Risk: Connecticut’s Crackdown on Prediction Platforms
Just as Robinhood leaned into prediction markets, regulators have begun to push back.
On December 4, 2025, Connecticut’s Department of Consumer Protection issued cease‑and‑desist orders to three “prediction market platforms”: Kalshi, Robinhood Derivatives and Crypto.com. The state argues that these firms are effectively offering unlicensed online sports betting to residents, including potentially to people under 21, in violation of state gaming laws. [18]
Connecticut regulators claim:
- Only licensed sportsbooks like DraftKings, FanDuel and Fanatics are permitted to offer sports wagering in the state.
- Event contracts tied to sports outcomes constitute “sports wagering,” not just financial trading.
- The platforms pose consumer protection risks due to a lack of state‑level oversight. [19]
A Robinhood spokesperson responded that its event contracts are federally regulated by the CFTC through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC, and that the firm seeks to offer prediction markets in a safe, compliant way. [20]
For investors, the key question is whether more states will follow Connecticut’s lead. While federal regulators have been more permissive, state‑level action could force Robinhood to geo‑fence or limit event‑contract offerings in certain markets, potentially crimping near‑term growth in what has become a high‑margin product.
5. Beyond Trading: Credit Card and Robo‑Advisor Momentum
Robinhood’s growth story in 2025 is not only about trading and prediction markets. Management has been deliberately diversifying revenues into credit cards, deposits and wealth management.
5.1 Robinhood Gold Card
Robinhood first unveiled the Robinhood Gold Card in March 2024. The card is available to Robinhood Gold subscribers and offers: [21]
- 3% cash back on all purchases (in reward points),
- 5% cash back on travel booked through Robinhood’s portal,
- No annual fee and no foreign transaction fees,
- Integration with the broader Robinhood ecosystem via a dedicated credit‑card app. [22]
By March 2025, NerdWallet reported that the card had already been rolled out to about 100,000 users, with plans to double that number within weeks, signaling strong early adoption. [23]
The card does two important things for the equity story:
- It deepens engagement and stickiness among Robinhood’s most valuable customers (Gold members).
- It adds another interest‑earning asset (credit card receivables) that feeds into the net interest revenue line, which already accounts for roughly a third of company revenue. [24]
5.2 Robinhood Strategies robo‑advisor
In parallel, Robinhood launched Robinhood Strategies, a robo‑advisor aimed at customers who want automated portfolios.
According to a Barron’s Advisor report from late October, Robinhood Strategies has: [25]
- Surpassed $1 billion in assets under management just over six months after launch.
- More than 180,000 funded accounts.
- A 0.25% annual fee, waived for Robinhood Gold subscribers on balances above $100,000.
This is still small compared with Robinhood’s total platform assets (north of $300 billion), but it shows the company’s ability to cross‑sell and deepen the product stack.
Big picture: These credit card and robo‑advisor initiatives support the thesis that Robinhood is evolving into a multi‑product financial super‑app, not just a high‑beta trading platform.
6. Wall Street’s Latest Robinhood Stock Forecasts
Analyst sentiment on HOOD has turned decisively positive in 2025, though price targets vary widely.
6.1 Consensus ratings
Data compiled by StockAnalysis shows that 23 analysts currently cover Robinhood, with an average rating of “Buy”. The breakdown is skewed bullish: six “Strong Buy,” ten “Buy,” six “Hold,” one “Sell,” and no “Strong Sell” ratings as of early December. [26]
Multiple brokerages have lifted their price targets since the Q3 earnings release and the prediction‑markets news:
- Needham analyst John Todaro has reiterated a Strong Buy rating with a $145 price target, including a fresh reiteration on December 5, 2025. [27]
- Citizens raised its target from $170 to $180 on November 7 while maintaining a bullish stance. [28]
- Mizuho lifted its target from $145 to $172 and kept an “Outperform” rating on November 6. [29]
- Cantor Fitzgerald increased its target from $130 to $155 while reiterating a “Buy” rating. [30]
6.2 Price target ranges
Different aggregators report somewhat different consensus numbers, but they tell a consistent story: analysts see modest upside from current levels, with some very bullish outliers.
Recent snapshots include:
- MarketBeat: average 12‑month target around $136.95, implying roughly 3–4% upside from the ~$132 share price, with a high of $180 and a low of $47. [31]
- Zacks/other broker data: average target implying about 13% upside from a recent price near $137, with a range from $86 to $180. [32]
- TipRanks: average around $152 (roughly 10–12% upside) based on 21 analysts, with a high of $181 and a low of $68. [33]
The spread between the highest and lowest target — more than a 2.5x difference — reflects deep disagreement about the sustainability of Robinhood’s growth and the risks embedded in its business model.
7. Fundamentals and Forward Estimates
Beyond price targets, analysts are also steadily revising up their revenue and EPS forecasts.
StockAnalysis’ forecast compilation points to: [34]
- 2025 revenue around $4.6–4.7 billion, up roughly 55% from 2024’s ~$2.95 billion.
- 2026 revenue near $5.6 billion, implying another 20%+ growth year.
- 2025 EPS around $2.07, rising to roughly $2.57 in 2026, implying mid‑20s annual EPS growth.
That EPS trajectory helps contextualize the current P/E near the mid‑50s: investors are clearly paying up for Robinhood’s high growth, asset‑light model and operating leverage.
At the corporate level, the company has also:
- Grown assets under custody to somewhere in the $300–340 billion range, depending on the exact cut‑off date and whether third‑party managed assets are included. [35]
- Maintained a healthy net deposit growth rate exceeding 40% on a last‑twelve‑month basis, signaling continued inflows rather than customers cashing out. [36]
8. Risks: Volatility, Regulation and Insider Selling
Despite the bullish narrative, there are meaningful risks that investors in HOOD should weigh.
8.1 High beta and crypto exposure
Robinhood’s user base is heavily skewed toward options, crypto and momentum trading. Bitcoin and other digital assets still exert disproportionate influence on the stock’s day‑to‑day moves, as shown by the recent pullback when crypto prices dipped sharply. [37]
8.2 Regulatory uncertainty around prediction markets
Connecticut’s action against Robinhood Derivatives is probably the most concrete near‑term risk. If other states adopt a similar stance — arguing that event contracts constitute unlicensed gambling rather than financial trading — Robinhood could face: [38]
- Fines or penalties,
- Forced product withdrawals or geo‑fencing in certain states,
- Higher compliance costs and slower rollout of its new exchange.
At the same time, Robinhood’s new joint venture is being built around CFTC‑regulated infrastructure, which could give it stronger footing versus smaller prediction platforms that have less robust regulatory frameworks. [39]
8.3 Insider selling
A MarketBeat insider‑trading alert on December 5 noted that a Robinhood insider sold 49,942 shares — a stake worth several million dollars at current prices. [40] While one sale doesn’t necessarily signal trouble, persistent insider selling at elevated valuations is something investors typically watch closely.
8.4 Execution risk in new verticals
Credit cards and robo‑advice are intensely competitive arenas dominated by banks and established fintechs. While early traction in the Gold Card and Robinhood Strategies is encouraging, there is no guarantee these lines will reach the scale or margins implied in the most optimistic forecasts. [41]
9. Bull vs. Bear Case for HOOD Stock
Bull case highlights
- Explosive earnings growth: Net income is up triple digits, with robust margins and clear operating leverage. [42]
- Platform scale: Over 27 million funded customers and hundreds of billions in customer assets give Robinhood a powerful distribution channel for new products. [43]
- Prediction markets leadership: The LedgerX deal and Susquehanna joint venture could cement Robinhood as a dominant player in a rapidly growing, high‑margin niche. [44]
- Diversified revenue mix: Growing contributions from net interest, credit cards and robo‑advice reduce reliance on pure trading volumes. [45]
- Supportive analyst sentiment: A broad base of “Buy” and “Strong Buy” ratings alongside rising price targets. [46]
Bear case highlights
- Rich valuation: A mid‑50s P/E multiple leaves little room for execution missteps or macro shocks. [47]
- Regulatory overhang: State‑level pushback on prediction markets could hamper one of Robinhood’s fastest‑growing businesses. [48]
- Revenue cyclicality: Trading‑driven businesses tend to struggle when volatility and retail enthusiasm fade.
- Concentration risk: A sizable portion of revenue comes from options and crypto, which remain politically and economically sensitive segments. [49]
10. Bottom Line: Is Robinhood Stock a Buy Right Now?
As of December 6, 2025, Robinhood stock sits at the intersection of:
- Strong fundamental momentum (profitability, revenue growth, asset inflows),
- Bold strategic expansion (prediction markets, exchange infrastructure, credit card, robo‑advisor), and
- Elevated risk (regulatory scrutiny, volatility, and a demanding valuation).
Most Wall Street analysts still see some upside from current levels — typically in the high single‑digit to low double‑digit percentage range over the next 12 months, with a handful of targets calling for much bigger gains if prediction markets and new products scale as hoped. [50]
For long‑term, risk‑tolerant investors, HOOD now looks more like a high‑growth, diversified fintech platform than a pure meme trade, but it remains a high‑beta, high‑risk name. Conservative investors or those worried about regulatory battles around prediction markets may prefer to wait for either a clearer regulatory framework or a more attractive valuation.
As always, this article is for information and news purposes only and is not financial advice. Anyone considering Robinhood stock should evaluate their own risk tolerance, time horizon and portfolio needs, and, if necessary, consult a qualified financial adviser.
References
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