NEW YORK, April 14, 2026, 4:05 PM EDT
Robinhood stock surged about 10% Tuesday, trading around $78.75, after Bernstein stuck to its Outperform rating and kept its $130 price target. That follows Truist’s move the previous day—Truist trimmed its target to $100, but maintained its Buy call.
The split is significant, with Robinhood set to release first-quarter earnings on April 28. The central question: Can crypto trading and prediction markets push revenue higher even in a slower quarter? Prediction markets—essentially event contracts—let users bet on outcomes like sports or election results.
Bernstein is looking well above the Street for Robinhood in 2026: revenue forecasts are up 9% versus consensus, and its EPS projection is 16% higher. Part of that comes from a bullish crypto revenue estimate—31% ahead of what the consensus expects. The firm also flagged its estimates for Robinhood’s other transaction revenue, including prediction markets, running about 30% above consensus.
Bernstein analysts, with Gautam Chhugani at the helm, described prediction markets as “broader information markets” in a recent sector note. Their forecast: annual volume hitting $240 billion in 2026, then exploding to $1 trillion by 2030. The note also pointed out that Robinhood acts as Kalshi’s main distribution partner, already listing over 1,000 contracts. Benzinga
Robinhood has thrown some weight behind the bulls. Back in February, the company reported 2025 revenue jumped 52% to a record $4.5 billion. Funded accounts hit 27 million, platform assets swelled to $324 billion, and over 12 billion event contracts traded over the past year. CEO Vlad Tenev, speaking in January, described the market as being in the “early stages of a supercycle.” Robinhood Markets, Inc.
Even so, the latest operating numbers show some bumps. Platform assets in February slipped 3% from January, landing at $314 billion. Event contract activity sank 29% month over month to 2.4 billion. Robinhood’s crypto volume for March, through the 27th, totaled roughly $16 billion.
That goes some way toward illustrating Truist’s decision. Analyst David Smith lowered his target, factoring February and March trading numbers into his model and shaving his 2026–2028 forecasts. Transaction-based revenue was weaker, and while buybacks picked up and operating expenses edged down, it wasn’t enough to fully make up the gap.
Crypto stocks caught a tailwind too. Bitcoin hovered around $74,264, with Coinbase ticking up as well—a sign that Robinhood remains tethered to digital-asset sentiment, despite ongoing efforts to diversify its offerings.
The bullish narrative could unravel in a hurry. Despite Tuesday’s gains, Robinhood is still trading nearly 49% under its 52-week peak of $153.86. Legal headwinds persist for the event-contract business, with state and federal authorities still at odds over whether to classify such products as derivatives or gambling. The Ninth Circuit will take up an appeal involving Kalshi, Robinhood, and Crypto.com on April 16.
Robinhood signed off on a fresh $1.5 billion buyback back on March 24. Investors won’t need to wait long to see if Bernstein or Truist has the sharper near-term read: first-quarter results drop April 28, after the bell.
