NEW YORK, Dec. 27, 2025, 6:42 a.m. ET — Market closed
Rocket Lab Corporation (NASDAQ: RKLB) heads into the weekend with investors debating a familiar, high-voltage question: was Friday’s drop a meaningful shift in momentum—or a year-end breather after a historic run fueled by U.S. defense wins and accelerating launch cadence?
In the last regular session (Friday, Dec. 26), Rocket Lab shares closed at $70.65, down 8.46%, after swinging through a wide intraday range (roughly $70.39 to $76.99) on volume of about 23.16 million shares. In after-hours trading, the stock was indicated around $70.28. [1]
Because it’s Saturday, U.S. stock exchanges are closed for the weekend. The next regular session is Monday, Dec. 29, when traders will look for follow-through—either stabilization (buyers stepping back in) or additional profit-taking (momentum cooling further).
What happened Friday: profit-taking meets thin holiday trading
Friday’s tape had all the hallmarks of post-holiday liquidity—the kind of session where price moves can look extra dramatic because fewer participants are steering the ship. Investors Business Daily described the broader market as mostly flat in post-Christmas trading, while noting Rocket Lab among notable decliners. [2]
Benzinga framed Rocket Lab’s move as part of a broader pullback in space-related names after a powerful rally, pointing to heightened volatility and highlighting widely watched technical levels. [3]
The key context: Rocket Lab’s stock has already put up a huge year, and the name has become a momentum magnet—meaning sharp rallies can be followed by sharp drawdowns without any single headline “breaking” the story.
The fundamental catalyst investors still can’t ignore: Rocket Lab’s $816 million SDA prime award
The bullish narrative powering RKLB into late December didn’t come out of nowhere. On Dec. 19, Rocket Lab announced what it called its largest single contract to date: an $816 million prime contract from the Space Development Agency (SDA) to design and manufacture 18 satellites for the Tracking Layer Tranche 3 (TRKT3) program under the Proliferated Warfighter Space Architecture. [4]
Rocket Lab said the award includes a $806 million base plus options up to $10.45 million, and that it sees additional “merchant supplier” opportunities that could bring total “capture value” to approximately $1 billion through subsystems and payload-related content. [5]
CEO Sir Peter Beck positioned the deal as evidence Rocket Lab can compete as a serious national-security prime, emphasizing the company’s vertically integrated approach. [6]
Industry reporting also put the award in a bigger Pentagon procurement picture:
- Air & Space Forces reported SDA’s Tranche 3 awards total roughly $3.5 billion across four companies—Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, L3Harris, and Rocket Lab—with Rocket Lab’s contract value cited around $805 million. [7]
- Reuters described the SDA placing a $3.5 billion order for 72 satellites across those four firms. [8]
- Spaceflight Now quoted SDA Acting Director Gurpartap “GP” Sandhoo on Tranche 3’s mission value, and reported launches are slated to begin in fiscal year 2029. [9]
For investors, the punchline is simple: Rocket Lab isn’t just a launch company in the market’s eyes anymore—it’s increasingly being priced like a defense-space manufacturer with durable program work, and that tends to command a different valuation framework.
Execution credibility: Rocket Lab closes 2025 with a 21-launch Electron record
Rocket Lab also ended 2025 with an operational flex that matters in aerospace: repeatable execution.
On Dec. 21, Rocket Lab reported a successful Electron mission for Japan-based Earth-imaging company iQPS—its 21st Electron launch of the year, marking a new annual launch record for Electron with 100% mission success in 2025. The company said additional iQPS launches are planned in 2026, and that the next Electron mission is slated for early Q1 2026. [10]
In space markets, reliability isn’t just engineering pride—it’s sales leverage. A company that launches often and cleanly tends to win repeat business, and it makes it easier for government customers to justify awarding more work.
Wall Street forecasts: the targets are rising, but they’re not unanimous
As RKLB surged into late December, analysts rushed to update their models—and the spread between bullish and cautious views remains wide.
Needham’s Ryan Koontz (described by TipRanks as a five-star-rated analyst) raised his Rocket Lab price target to $90 from $63 and reiterated a Buy, citing the SDA win and arguing the award could ultimately represent around $1 billion of opportunity when including follow-on subsystem content. [11]
Meanwhile, broader consensus views depend heavily on the data provider and the timing of target updates:
- TipRanks listed Rocket Lab with a Moderate Buy consensus and an average price target of $68.25 (at the time of its update). [12]
- MarketBeat’s compilation showed a Moderate Buy consensus as well, but with an average target around $61.25, reflecting how quickly price targets can lag when a stock reprices rapidly. [13]
MarketWatch also noted that at least one firm—Cantor Fitzgerald—has carried an overweight stance with a $72 price target in recent coverage, underscoring that not all analysts are comfortable chasing the stock far above the mid-$70s without additional proof points. [14]
The other “forecast” that matters: Rocket Lab’s own guidance and Neutron timeline
Investors aren’t just trading headlines—they’re trading the company’s trajectory toward scale and (eventually) profitability.
In its Q3 2025 financial update, Rocket Lab reported record quarterly revenue of $155 million and laid out Q4 2025 guidance that included:
- Revenue: $170 million to $180 million
- GAAP gross margin: 37% to 39%
- Non-GAAP gross margin: 43% to 45%
- Adjusted EBITDA loss: $23 million to $29 million [15]
The same update also addressed Rocket Lab’s medium-lift rocket, Neutron—a major long-term catalyst for investors who believe Rocket Lab can move up-market beyond small launch. Rocket Lab said it updated its schedule to have Neutron arrive at Launch Complex 3 in Q1 2026, with the first launch thereafter, pending qualification and acceptance testing. [16]
That timeline is critical because Neutron’s debut (and early execution quality) is one of the biggest variables in whether Rocket Lab can convert today’s narrative into tomorrow’s cash flows.
What investors should know before Monday’s session
With markets closed, the most useful prep isn’t guessing Monday’s first print—it’s mapping what could actually move RKLB when liquidity returns.
1) Watch whether the stock can hold key post-selloff levels.
Friday’s close around $70.65 sets a clear reference point. Momentum stocks often attract technical trading around round numbers and prior breakout areas. [17]
2) Separate “contract headline” from “contract execution.”
The SDA award is a big deal—but defense-space work is ultimately judged on delivery milestones, production ramp, and program performance. Investors will be listening for any fresh signals on schedule, margins, and additional SDA subsystem pull-through value. [18]
3) Know the next major calendar catalyst: earnings timing remains a watch item.
Different market calendars list different dates, but TipRanks’ earnings page lists Rocket Lab as scheduled to report Q4 2025 earnings on Mar. 3, 2026 (after close), while other trackers provide estimates based on prior patterns. [19]
(Practically: traders will treat any official confirmation from Rocket Lab as the date that counts.)
4) Expect the “space theme” to stay headline-sensitive.
Even when Rocket Lab-specific news is quiet, sector narratives can swing sentiment. For example, Reuters reported China easing IPO rules for companies developing reusable rockets—an illustration of intensifying global competition and capital formation in space tech. [20]
5) Keep an eye on ownership and positioning updates.
MarketBeat highlighted new institutional-position headlines (e.g., Swedbank AB reporting share purchases), which can add to the “institutional adoption” storyline—though these filings often reflect past-quarter positioning rather than real-time buying. [21]
Bottom line
Rocket Lab stock enters the weekend in classic momentum-stock fashion: a sharp pullback after a powerful repricing, with the long-term bull case still anchored to real operating outputs (launch cadence), real contract scale (SDA prime), and a high-stakes next chapter (Neutron).
When the market reopens Monday, investors will be weighing a simple trade-off: Rocket Lab’s increasingly defense-heavy opportunity set and improved execution track record versus the reality that the stock has already run far—and now must “earn” its valuation through delivery, margins, and milestones. [22]
References
1. www.investing.com, 2. www.investors.com, 3. www.benzinga.com, 4. www.globenewswire.com, 5. www.globenewswire.com, 6. www.globenewswire.com, 7. www.airandspaceforces.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. spaceflightnow.com, 10. www.globenewswire.com, 11. www.tipranks.com, 12. www.tipranks.com, 13. www.marketbeat.com, 14. www.marketwatch.com, 15. www.globenewswire.com, 16. www.globenewswire.com, 17. www.investing.com, 18. www.globenewswire.com, 19. www.tipranks.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.marketbeat.com, 22. www.globenewswire.com
