New York, July 8, 2026, 18:02 (EDT)
- Morgan Stanley lifted its bull-case target on Rocket Lab to $293, up from $185, though the stock remained far off recent highs.
- Rocket Lab was the biggest loser among space names Tuesday, but shares were flat late Wednesday.
- Investors are looking at the $8 billion Iridium deal and Space Force mission wins, but the stock’s high valuation and execution risk on Neutron are in focus.
Morgan Stanley raised its best-case price target for Rocket Lab to $293 on Wednesday. The move came a day after Rocket Lab shares were among the biggest losers in a rough session for space stocks.
Timing counts. Rocket Lab is one of the market’s go-to stocks for commercial space, but the shares are still volatile. Investors are trying to price in a wider, more expensive push that would turn Rocket Lab from a pure launch firm into a bigger space-infrastructure player.
Morgan Stanley analysts led by Kristine Liwag boosted their bull-case target on Rocket Lab to $293 from $185, saying the company is looking more like a smaller SpaceX, according to MarketWatch. Liwag wrote much of the value in the space economy comes “not from launch alone.” She pointed to space-based infrastructure and recurring services. MarketWatch
Rocket Lab traded at $83.35 late Wednesday, little changed from the previous close. Shares moved between $80.51 and $87.50 in the regular session. The latest quote hit at 5:47 p.m. EDT, after the U.S. market had closed.
The slide came after a sharp selloff. Rocket Lab shares lost 9.32% to close at $84.41 on Tuesday, Moomoo said, with $638.5 million in turnover. AST SpaceMobile dropped 6.52%. SpaceX-related stocks in Moomoo’s space-sector screen also traded lower.
The bull case is about a company that’s scaled up. Rocket Lab’s first-quarter revenue came in at $200.3 million, which is 63.5% higher than last year, and the company posted a backlog of $2.2 billion. Backlog means contracted work that hasn’t been recognized as revenue yet. It’s one way to gauge upcoming demand, but it doesn’t guarantee profit.
Rocket Lab said Tuesday it finished its part in the U.S. Space Force’s VICTUS HAZE mission, covering launch, bringing the spacecraft online, and completing on-orbit proximity work before Space Force deadlines. CEO Peter Beck said the company had “set the new standard” in responsive space. Rocket Lab Corporation
Iridium is the bigger bet here. Rocket Lab said last month it will buy satellite-communications group Iridium for roughly $8 billion. The deal gives Rocket Lab a low-Earth-orbit network, the L-band spectrum, and access to more than 2.55 million users. Low Earth orbit means satellites move close to the planet and are often used for faster data and monitoring.
That’s why SpaceX shows up in most comparisons. SpaceX links its launch operation with Starlink’s satellite comms. Rocket Lab wants to combine launch, building spacecraft and satellite services under one roof. AST SpaceMobile is also in the mix, but its bet is on direct-to-device satellite broadband, not Rocket Lab’s launch-plus-systems approach.
There is a big caveat here. Trefis pointed out that Rocket Lab’s stock dropped much more than the wider market in previous downturns, with a 70% slide from peak to low during the 2022 inflation and Fed tightening rout. The firm also noted that Rocket Lab’s long-term outlook still leans on Neutron, its bigger rocket which is still in development.
The big risk is Neutron. It’s supposed to take Rocket Lab into bigger payloads and constellations, not just small launches. But any delay, a test that goes wrong, funding strain after the Iridium deal, or fading interest in high-growth names that don’t make money could shift things fast.
Right now, Rocket Lab has a long-term growth story but investors aren’t giving it much room for error. The next thing to watch is if new contracts, upcoming launches and the Iridium integration can push that story into actual cash flow before volatility hits harder.
