Milpitas, California, May 26, 2026, 04:02 (PDT)
SanDisk’s AI rally is under new pressure as investor talk brings the stock’s valuation into focus again. Wall Street is now weighing if the memory-chip maker, already up sharply this year, can meet the most bullish price calls. Bernstein’s best-case scenario sees the stock going to $3,000—if NAND chip prices and profits keep climbing. NAND flash is the chip in solid-state drives, or SSDs.
Storage is now seen as part of AI infrastructure, not just a back-office expense. SanDisk reported last month that fiscal third-quarter revenue jumped 97% from the prior quarter to $5.95 billion. Datacenter revenue was up 233%. For the current quarter, SanDisk guided for revenue between $7.75 billion and $8.25 billion. CEO David Goeckeler called it a “fundamental inflection point.” Sandisk Corporation
SanDisk is in focus as the market weighs whether the company is breaking from how memory deals have worked before. In a filing, SanDisk reported $41.6 billion in remaining performance obligations as of April 3. Most of that hasn’t been billed. About 15% is expected to turn into revenue in the next 12 months. The number looks a lot like a backlog. It comes from long-term customer deals SanDisk says are aimed at easing the big price changes seen in the sector.
SanDisk shares changed hands at $1,478.69 before the U.S. open Tuesday, 4.1% under their prior close. The company’s market cap stands near $232 billion by market data.
Bernstein’s Mark Newman lifted his SanDisk target to $1,250 back in April and mapped out a route to $3,000, saying the market was “undervaluing earnings power” this cycle. The bullish setup is built on higher NAND prices, tight supply, and AI-driven data-center demand holding up longer than most memory investors expect. Investing.com South Africa
Goeckeler says the company is looking to break from the “boom-bust cycle” in the memory business. He told Reuters after the results that SanDisk was aiming for “consistent, predictable economics,” and said supply agreements with customer financial commitments would help. Reuters
SanDisk CFO Luis Visoso told the earnings call the new deals are meant to lock in demand for SanDisk and assure customers they’ll get supply. Visoso said five agreements so far come with over $11 billion in financial guarantees and account for more than a third of bit shipments planned for fiscal 2027.
SanDisk’s quarterly filing spells out the risks. The company said long-term contracts leave it open to execution, market and financial risks. Failure to supply products or customer defaults on commitments could mean lower margins, extra inventory, penalties or even contracts getting scrapped. SanDisk also cited swings in demand, shifting prices and cyclical sales as risk factors.
Competition in storage is tightening. Western Digital and Seagate both flagged solid AI storage demand. Micron is still the key U.S. memory name, mainly in DRAM and high-bandwidth chips needed close to AI processors. SanDisk is pushing to position NAND flash less as a commodity and more as locked-in AI infrastructure supply.
SanDisk’s $42 billion in contractual obligations boosts revenue visibility, Yiannis Zourmpanos wrote on Seeking Alpha, but he sees valuation risk. The contributor said forward enterprise value to sales is much higher than the sector median. That’s the flip side of the rally—investors are sticking with the stock as SanDisk pitches a simpler story before the model is tested across a cycle.
The next key figure won’t answer if AI demand is real, it’s about how much actually sticks. More signed commitments and firm pricing would give bulls fresh ammo. If NAND prices soften or buyers balk, the memory cycle could look alive after all.
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