MILPITAS, California, May 5, 2026, 08:09 (PDT)
- Sandisk shares jumped close to 9% on Tuesday, tacking on fresh gains to what’s already been among this year’s standout AI-driven rallies.
- Stronger NAND flash pricing and a tilt toward data-center clients pushed the company past expectations in its latest quarter.
- Now the question is whether locking in long-term supply deals builds a more durable business model, or just limits upside if pricing hits a high.
Sandisk shares surged again early Tuesday, recently changing hands at $1,372.33, up roughly 9.3%. The stock earlier spiked to an intraday high of $1,397.08. Investors are still eyeing the company after its profit recovery and a forecast that blew past Wall Street’s expectations just days before.
The question of timing hangs over Sandisk as investors weigh if it remains just another cyclical memory player benefitting from a pricing run-up, or if it’s establishing itself as a steady supplier for the AI data-center wave. NAND flash, the non-volatile memory used in SSDs, has tightened up as AI-fueled workloads strain available fast storage.
SanDisk posted fiscal third-quarter revenue of $5.95 billion, a 97% jump over the previous quarter and 251% higher than the same period last year. GAAP net income landed at $3.62 billion, translating to $23.03 per share. Non-GAAP earnings edged slightly higher at $23.41 a share. Data-center revenue surged 233% from the prior quarter, hitting $1.47 billion.
The company projected fiscal fourth-quarter revenue between $7.75 billion and $8.25 billion, with adjusted earnings expected to land in the $30 to $33 per share range. Chief Executive David Goeckeler described the quarter as “a fundamental inflection point,” adding that Sandisk is now pivoting to “the highest-value end markets, led by Datacenter.” SEC
What stands out most is the shift in contracts. Sandisk wrapped up the quarter holding three “new business model” agreements, then added two more after quarter’s end, according to the company. Chief Financial Officer Luis Visoso told analysts on the call that these five deals together carry financial guarantees north of $11 billion and now account for more than a third of Sandisk’s projected fiscal 2027 bits—its shorthand for memory units sold. The Motley Fool
The agreements aim to stabilize a notoriously volatile sector. According to Reuters, at least three contracts inked during the quarter carried a combined value north of $42 billion. They stretch from one to five years. Sandisk gets some insurance here: the deals are structured to shield the company in case customers don’t follow through on their purchase pledges.
Wall Street isn’t unimpressed by the results themselves—it’s that the stock has already run up. Michael Ashley Schulman, a partner at Cerity Partners, told Reuters both Sandisk and Western Digital are just not delivering the “wow factor” investors want to see to push things higher. Reuters
Analysts haven’t caught up yet. Fox Advisors just bumped its price target up to $1,500, while Bernstein went higher, putting the new target at $1,700. Bernstein cited robust NAND pricing and now expects bigger profits this year, according to a Yahoo Finance-syndicated piece from The Motley Fool.
The warning’s not hard to spot. On the earnings call, Bernstein’s Mark Newman pointed out the guidance “does imply that the rate of price increase is slowing a bit,” pressing if those long-term agreements were behind it. Goeckeler pushed back, saying Sandisk doesn’t forecast prices. After “extraordinary pricing acceleration,” he said, the market is still “extremely dynamic.” The Motley Fool
Monday’s Seeking Alpha analysis cut straight to it: the quarter’s beat was all about price and mix, not more units, with bit shipments actually falling in the high teens quarter-over-quarter. The report also pointed to technicals looking stretched, and warned that newly signed long-term contracts might cap future gains if spot NAND prices climb further.
Demand looks intact, judging by what rivals are saying. Western Digital and Seagate both flagged AI-driven strength in storage, sending their shares higher Tuesday morning—Western Digital up roughly 8.3%, Seagate gaining 6.1%. Sandisk’s risk? The stock’s already pricing in tight supply, solid pricing, flawless execution. Not much cushion if the typical memory cycle stumbles.
