NEW YORK, July 16, 2026, 11:26 a.m. EDT
- Seagate dropped 6.5% to $774.19 in early Nasdaq trading.
- Seagate will report its fiscal Q4 numbers after the market shuts on July 28.
- Guidance puts the preliminary run-rate P/E at 38.7x.
Seagate dropped 6.5% to $774.19 in early Thursday trading. Nasdaq was open for the regular session.
The selloff is important since Seagate’s earnings bar is still high. Even with the fall, the company’s market cap stood at $177.5 billion.
That’s $12.8 billion more than Western Digital NASDAQ:WDC, even though WDC reported bigger revenue, stronger gross margin and more free cash flow last quarter.
The numbers point to Seagate trading on hopes for better performance ahead, not on what it’s earning now. July 28 is the next important date.
Storage stocks dropped with the rest of tech. By 9:50 a.m. EDT, the Nasdaq was down 1.0% and the Philadelphia semiconductor index slipped 3.8%. Sartorial Wealth CEO Shiraz Ahmed called the chip rally “cooling off,” but said AI capital spending was still busy. Reuters
Seagate said Wednesday it plans to release fiscal Q4 and full-year numbers following the July 28 close. The company’s conference call is set for 5 p.m. EDT.
Seagate is sticking with its revenue outlook of $3.45 billion, give or take $100 million. The company still sees non-GAAP EPS coming in at $5.00, more or less 20 cents.
Comparable data from the April quarter helps explain the premium.
| Company | Day move | Q3 revenue | Q3 non-GAAP gross margin | Q3 free cash flow | Preliminary run-rate P/E* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seagate | fell 6.5% | $3.11 billion | 47.0% | $953 million | 38.7x |
| Western Digital | lost 7.0% | $3.34 billion | 50.5% | $978 million | 36.7x |
This early estimate splits every intraday price by four times the Q4 non-GAAP EPS guidance midpoint. It’s just for illustration, not a prediction. Last prices came in at 11:10 a.m. EDT. Both quarters reported ended April 3.
Seagate’s early run-rate multiple is running about 5% above. WDC reported better margin and $25 million in extra free cash flow. That leaves less space for an average quarter.
Seagate turned in a solid third quarter with revenue at $3.11 billion. Non-GAAP EPS came in at $4.10, and free cash flow was $953 million.
CEO Dave Mosley said Seagate is “entering a new era of structural growth.” The company’s July report is set to test that against a softer tape for the sector. Seagate Investor Relations
Investors are watching revenue, margins and cash conversion. They’ll also want a demand update on high-capacity drives.
The risks are clear. A sharper pullback in AI hardware or softer cloud orders might narrow the premium. But stronger pricing or cash flow could flip that.
The market is cutting the whole sector, not just Seagate for now. July 28 earnings will show if it keeps its premium.
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