London, March 3, 2026, 08:18 (GMT) — Regular session
- Shell shares edged higher, up around 0.3% early in London, with oil prices climbing again on renewed Middle East supply concerns.
- Brent extended its gains into a third session, with tankers steering clear of the Strait of Hormuz and freight rates moving higher.
- A New York judge has denied Shell’s attempt to reverse an arbitration award tied to its LNG spat with Venture Global.
Shell (SHEL.L) picked up 0.3% to 3,140.5 pence by 08:10 GMT on Tuesday, with shares moving up alongside another rally in oil prices as traders factored in potential supply curbs from the Middle East.
Crude’s taking the spotlight right now. Brent added $3.15, reaching $80.89 a barrel by 07:45 GMT, making it three sessions in a row of gains after Monday’s jump on the back of the widening U.S.-Israeli clash with Iran and mounting shipping threats through the Strait of Hormuz. “With no quick de-escalation in sight … upside risks remain,” wrote IG’s Tony Sycamore. ING analysts said markets are still absorbing the threat of further escalation. Reuters
Those same headlines pushing prices higher are also putting a spotlight on operational and supply chain weak points. Jefferies analysts figure roughly 20% of Shell’s oil and gas comes from the Middle East. According to their note, several fields in the region have gone offline, with tanker traffic through Hormuz basically coming to a standstill. QatarEnergy, for its part, halted LNG production on Monday following drone attacks, Jefferies added. LNG—liquefied natural gas—is shipped globally after being supercooled.
Shell bucked the trend Monday, holding firm as risk sentiment soured. The STOXX 600 dropped 1.7%, volatility spiked, yet energy shares notched a record and were alone in positive territory, according to Reuters data. Shell, BP, and TotalEnergies all climbed 2% to 3%. “We expect a short, hard-hitting regional conflict,” said Paul Christopher, head of global investment strategy at Wells Fargo Investment Institute. Reuters
London tracked the downtrend, with the FTSE 100 falling 1.2% Monday. Shell bucked the move, up 1.9%, boosted by firmer oil prices. Traders also pulled back bets on imminent Bank of England rate cuts as inflation worries crept back in. “If the issues persist, then the market will start to worry about new inflationary pressures,” said Dan Coatsworth, head of markets at AJ Bell. Reuters
After the bell, Shell faced pressure from news tied to its legal fight with LNG producer Venture Global. A New York state judge turned down Shell’s bid to overturn an arbitration award that went Venture Global’s way, Reuters reported, signaling the end of Shell’s legal route on the matter. Shell voiced disappointment with the result. Arbitration, a private process, generally gets strong backing from the courts.
Shell hasn’t let up on capital returns. On March 2, the company scooped up 153,314 shares for cancellation, buying across both London and Amsterdam venues. That buyback falls under the program it outlined on Feb. 5. According to Shell, Morgan Stanley is handling the trades on its own through May 1.
Some investors are eyeing dividend logistics in the short term. For Shell, the schedule on its fourth-quarter 2025 interim dividend lays out a March 6 cutoff for currency choices, with sterling and euro rates announced March 16. Actual payments land March 30.
Even so, this trade faces two clear pitfalls. If shipping lanes reopen quickly or there’s any hint of de-escalation, crude could tumble and the sector’s backing would thin out fast. On the flip side, drawn-out disruption threatens to squeeze producers with outages, steeper logistics bills, and less available LNG.
Oil’s direction remains in focus for traders, along with any updates on tanker movements and the insurance picture in the Strait of Hormuz. Looking at the company’s schedule, the next fixed event comes Friday, March 6, which marks the deadline for dividend currency elections.
