London, Jan 12, 2026, 08:09 GMT — Regular session
- Shell shares edged up in early London trading.
- Oil markets remain volatile amid headlines about supply from Iran and Venezuela.
- Shell’s caution about weak trading and chemicals is still on traders’ minds.
Shell shares edged up in early London trade Monday, climbing roughly 0.3% to 2,647.5 pence. The oil giant returned to focus amid shifting crude supply concerns and a weaker price forecast for next year. 1
That’s crucial today since Shell’s cash flow still hinges on barrels and margins, not catchy slogans. When oil prices shift, investors rapidly recalculate dividends, buybacks, and just how much slack the company has to weather a down quarter.
Shell last week signaled its Chemicals and Products division will post a loss in Q4, hit by “significantly lower” oil trading results and softer chemicals margins. RBC’s Biraj Borkhataria questioned whether the board will stick to the $3.5 billion buyback plan. HSBC’s Kim Fustier sounded “less confident” about Shell holding that target. UBS’s Josh Stone expects quarterly buybacks to drop to $3 billion. 2
Oil nudged higher Monday amid protests in Iran fueling supply concerns, though hopes for a Venezuela export restart and worries over broad oversupply kept gains in check. By 0433 GMT, Brent traded at $63.39 a barrel, with U.S. West Texas Intermediate at $59.16. “The market is saying show me the disruption to supply before materially responding,” noted Saul Kavonic, head of energy research at MST Marquee. Analysts at ANZ, led by Daniel Hynes, put at least 1.9 million barrels per day of Iran’s exports at risk. 3
A separate Goldman Sachs note on Sunday weighed on longer-term oil bulls, highlighting an upcoming surge in supply and a market surplus next year. The firm held its 2026 average price targets steady at $56 for Brent and $52 for WTI. It also projected a 2.3 million bpd surplus in 2026, warning that downside risks grow if non-OPEC output expands further. 4
Shell has pushed ahead with share repurchases, a crucial move for investors seeking cash returns as the company maintains tight spending. According to Shell’s website, the $3.5 billion buyback plan announced on Oct. 30 is set to continue until Jan. 30. The purchases are carried out under separate contracts in both London and the Netherlands. 5
A company release dated Jan. 9 revealed Shell purchased 953,773 shares on the London Stock Exchange at a volume-weighted average price of 26.3073 pounds. It also acquired 1,018,727 shares in Amsterdam, averaging 30.4016 euros, plus additional shares on smaller venues, all intended for cancellation. 6
Rivals like BP and TotalEnergies usually move in sync: when crude rises, these stocks climb; when it falls, the entire sector faces pressure. What sets Shell apart at the moment is an extra factor investors are keeping tabs on — the pace of its buyback program.
Yet the situation works both ways. Should Iran’s turmoil fail to disrupt barrels or prompt additional supply from other sources, crude might slip amid chatter of a 2026 surplus — putting pressure on Shell’s capacity to maintain payouts at the upper end of its range.
Shell is set to report its fourth-quarter results on Feb. 5. Before that, consensus estimates managed by Vara Research will drop on Jan. 28. These two dates will be key for investors watching if the buyback debate cools off or intensifies. 7
