CAPE TOWN, Jan 24, 2026, 02:51 SAST
- Nigeria gave the green light to investment-linked incentives for Shell’s planned Bonga South West deepwater oil project. Shell CEO Wael Sawan mentioned a final investment decision might happen by 2027.
- Shell has reached out to potential buyers regarding a possible sale of its Vaca Muerta shale assets in Argentina, sources said; the company declined to comment.
- These moves highlight Shell’s balancing act between big-ticket offshore expansion and trimming its portfolio with targeted exits.
Nigeria’s President Bola Tinubu has given the green light to investment-linked incentives for Shell’s Bonga South West deepwater oil project, following talks with CEO Wael Sawan. Sawan indicated a final investment decision could come by 2027, with projected capital and operating costs around $20 billion. Shell is also eyeing Nigeria’s exploration licence round. Tinubu emphasized these incentives aren’t “blanket concessions” but tied to fresh capital and output. Shell highlighted recent investments in Bonga North and a gas project supplying Nigeria LNG; Exxon Mobil is another Bonga partner. 1
Timing is crucial. After years of stalled investment and declining output, Nigeria is pushing to accelerate major offshore projects. To make it happen, the country is relying on specific fiscal and regulatory adjustments.
Shell’s Nigeria venture faces added pressure amid a stricter internal review. Large projects demand years to approve and complete, while fluctuating oil prices and investor demands tighten available cash.
Shell has reached out to potential buyers recently about selling some or all of its assets in Argentina’s Vaca Muerta shale play, three sources told Reuters. These assets could fetch billions, though a sale isn’t certain—Shell might keep its stake, the sources said. The company declined to comment. Harold Hamm’s Continental Resources has already invested in the region, calling it “one of the most compelling shale plays in the world.” Meanwhile, Enverus director Andy McConn noted Shell’s Vaca Muerta holdings could break even below $50 Brent, adding that “Such economics and scale screen favorably versus other global shale assets.” 2
A final investment decision, or FID, marks the moment project partners approve budgets and contracts, committing to spend. In deepwater fields, it also secures long-lead equipment and services, which are difficult to cancel once locked in.
Tinubu’s administration presents the incentives as tied to specific projects, focused on boosting incremental production and local content instead of broad handouts. How fast these details turn into signed contracts will determine if the Bonga South West schedule stays on track.
Shell’s review of Argentina highlights the flip side. While Vaca Muerta is gaining global attention as North American shale peaks, challenges like logistics, high costs, and commodity-price volatility continue to limit returns.
But many things could shift. Nigeria hasn’t laid out all its incentives yet, and aiming for a 2027 FID leaves open the possibility of delays, partner disputes, or less attractive economics if oil prices drop. In Argentina, buyers are likely to hesitate over costs and export constraints, and sources say Shell might still pull out of the sale process altogether.
